Cyprus-Forum.com

[BOF]

From the sunday Mail today.


By Stefanos Evripidou Published on June 20, 2010

THE UNITED Nations has been in Cyprus since 1964. Is this the year of dramatic change? Some people think it might be.

The Cyprus problem has had its fair share of rollercoaster highs and donkey ride lows, but throughout these years the UN has always had a visible presence on the island, with its international mediators, Good Offices and UNFICYP peacekeepers.

The last two years have been no different. The blue berets are still here and the Good Offices, under the leadership of part-time staff member Alexander Downer, have attempted to mediate between the two sides or, to use the proper vernacular, facilitate dialogue towards a solution.

So, is the current conjuncture no different from any other? Is it situation normal or have we reached a turning point in our relations with the UN?

There is one apparent difference this time compared to previous UN efforts. Unlike his predecessors, Downer is not a career diplomat. He’s a politician, and an Australian one at that.

This means he doesn’t mince his words. He likes to say it as he sees it. And when judgement day comes for the latest phase of peace talks, most likely in five months unless we get visibly close to a solution, he will make it very clear what he thinks went wrong, why and who’s to blame.

Downer said as much in an interview with the Cyprus Mail. When President Demetris Christofias tried to cancel a meeting with Turkish Cypriot leader Dervis Eroglu after the latter injected doubt on the basis of the talks, he said: “Cypriots can’t have it both ways, wanting UN involvement to set the basis of the talks on the one hand, and refusing arbitration or mediation on the other.”

On leaving the island before briefing the UN Security Council this month, Downer questioned how much Cypriots really wanted a solution. More recently, in an interview with the Turkish Cypriot paper, Cyprus Observer, the Australian made it clear that many people were using different definitions of the same words as an excuse never to reach an agreement.

Apart from being a proposed centre of education, research, tourism and technology, he suggested those who don’t want to solve the Cyprus problem could make Cyprus “the global capital of semantic debate”.

There’s more. The two leaders mustn’t think the UN “can be forever bogged down in holding talks that are never going to lead to a conclusion”. It’s easy to “train any parrot in a pet shop” to say they’re in favour of a solution but the real question is can they reach an agreement which both sides can live with.

Downer said he took the “unusual” decision to produce another “very important” progress report on the negotiations after five months instead of 12 because by November “it’ll be pretty obvious whether they can reach an agreement on the last parts of this negotiation or whether that’s all too difficult”.

And if it does prove too much, and one side is more responsible for the failure than the other, “well, we wouldn’t hesitate but to say it”.

So there you have it. If there’s nothing concrete after two years of negotiations, the Security Council’s going to hear all about it, warts and all. Most likely, they’ll call it a day for the Good Offices and withdraw their Special Adviser. If things really go pear-shaped, they could even reduce the role of UNFICYP to that of an observer mission. Should this option be pursued by one or more permanent members of the UNSC, then one way to temper a Russian veto is to threaten a counter veto on the renewal of UNFICYP’s mandate.

And as one European diplomat noted, if the Security Council report errs on the side of caution when apportioning blame, Downer “will make it clear in interviews” who’s to blame for the lack of progress. Simply put, if anyone can step down and go out with a bang, it’s Downer.

The next obvious questions are: is there a chance for a solution, and if not, why not?

Speaking to Reuters from Brussels last Friday, Christofias said he was not “enthusiastic” about the prospects of reaching a solution with Eroglu before the end of the year.

In public, Turkey, holding Eroglu close real tight, has repeatedly stated its wish for a solution in 2010. In private, Turkish Foreign Ministry officials have told European diplomats that they are eager for an agreement this year. Christofias argues this is simply a façade to cover the fact they are not putting constructive proposals on the negotiating table.

Political analyst Pambos Papageorgiou agrees, arguing the Turkish side is simply trying to manoeuvre for arbitration or to lump blame for failure on the Greek Cypriots.

He argued talk of a 2010 deadline was a smokescreen since in substance, the factors on the ground don’t suggest the two sides are near a solution. While the government and DISY want a solution which they know is not ideal but are still prepared to make sacrifices for, “we have not seen the other party coming close to anything substantial to facilitate that”.

One EU diplomat said if this is the case then the Greek Cypriot side should test their intentions. “If it’s true that Eroglu doesn’t want a solution and is just making impressions then somebody has to smoke him out of his cave.”

Another diplomat said: “All this talk of no asphyxiating timeframes is (Tassos) Papadopoulos’ talk, which Christofias has adopted. The more he does so the less one thinks he’s really willing to take difficult steps towards a solution.”

One analyst said as things stand, if the talks go nowhere by November, the odds will be stacked against Christofias as far as the blame game goes.

“If the talks fail, the view is he played a large part in it. Why? Because during those two years, the opportunity with (Mehmet Ali) Talat was not seized. There is a real feeling that Christofias did not pull his weight. And during Talat’s election campaign, he didn’t even throw him a bone.

“A second reason is the whole debate over Turkey has changed. You don’t hear the terms ‘aggressor’ or ‘occupier’ so much now. In reality, most observers now believe Turkey wants a solution. They see that Turkey is leaning hard on Eroglu and feel Christofias is dragging his feet.”

The analyst said it wasn’t a question of whether Christofias genuinely wanted a solution but about a lack of leadership.

“He has responsibility as an elected leader to show leadership. He is expected to take on the hardliners and win the debate. He hasn’t done this, it’s a weakness.”

If the international community gets the sense that the two sides don’t want to live together, with hardliners on both sides, then the question will be asked whether it’s worth investing any more UN time and resources into the conflict.

“People are really fed up. The UN will walk away and say sort it out among yourselves, figure out what you want and then call us,” he said.

The result could be consolidation of the division. Greek Cypriots won’t return to their homes while Turkish Cypriots would lose their identity.

He made the point there is no “hurting stalemate” in Cyprus. The isolation for Turkish Cypriots and direct trade regulation for Greek Cypriots are not enough for people to comprise on a solution. UNFICYP’s downgrade and upgrade of the north could be considered further leverage points.

The analyst warned the Greek Cypriot side not to overplay their hand on Turkey’s EU accession path.

“Turkish membership is off the cards now, everyone’s talking and thinking crisis. Even integration of the western Balkans looks difficult.”

Also, Turkish foreign policy is changing in relation to its place in the world. Turkey’s increasing regional importance is making Turks look at the EU in a different way. “If the Greek Cypriots drive too hard a bargain, Turkey will lose interest and walk away from the EU.”

He added: “The dynamics of the Cyprus problem are undergoing a major shift and I don’t think the Greek Cypriots are entirely aware of this

[eracles]

An interesting read but I do wonder about the sources...an analyst, another analyst, a diplomat, another diplomat! Then again, I guess these diplomats need to be quite diplomatic...

[Malapapa]

An interesting read but I do wonder about the sources...an analyst, another analyst, a diplomat, another diplomat! Then again, I guess these diplomats need to be quite diplomatic...

When a political analyst diplomatically doesn't name his sources in a report, one questions whether he's the anonymous analyst, whether he's the anonymous diplomat.

One thing is true though: Christofias is weak, unfortunately, and lacks diplomacy. He doesn't even speak English properly, and without a heavy accent. He came over to London a few weeks ago and attended the launch of the International Greek Cypriot Who's Who book.

He told the editors off - in no uncertain terms - for excluding Maronite, Armenian and Turkish Cypriots. But he delivered his impassioned and impressive sermon, to the 500 or so English-speaking UK Cypriots and friends of all shades in attendance, in Greek.

[Nikitas]

There was too much poker playing crap from the start, since February 1963 to be precise. After 1974 when the invasion brought about a radical change we had more of the same.

One way to break the crap chains is to come out publicly with a take it or leave it offer on the main points- a percentage of territory we deem acceptable, an outline of the government system, and other main areas. Going public obliges the other side to state its case. These nebulous phrases like "lasting viable solution" mean nothing.

[humanist]

The reality is Turkey is occupying Cypriot territory, if the UN decides to remove its troops then Cyprus needs to close the crossings to ensure safety of its citizens. It's only option is to request that the UN maintain the imposed economic sanctions on the occupation regime.

Otherwise they need to come out and say where they stand on the Turkish occupation of Cypriot territory. Otherwise they need to explain to smaller nations around the world how it can support the invasion of one nation over another.

The UN also needs to be clear that if they support 35,000 people to have their own country through invasion and killings by a third country supporting separation of nations. This would mean that they honour the plight of the Kurdish people in Turkey and assist them regain their country. Failure to do so means that the UN is a system wrought with fraud if they allow the larger nations to violate the rights of human beings from smaller nations as they would appear to support Turkey because of it military might.

[CBBB]

Without going in to the rights and wrongs of our situation, I can quite understand why the international community is totally fed up with us! Does nobody else see this?

[DT.]

Without going in to the rights and wrongs of our situation, I can quite understand why the international community is totally fed up with us! Does nobody else see this?

I can only imagine...Hell! I'm fed up with us.

[Paphitis]

Without going in to the rights and wrongs of our situation, I can quite understand why the international community is totally fed up with us! Does nobody else see this?

I can only imagine...Hell! I'm fed up with us.

I too can understand this!

DT, your politicians are really pathetic. They really do not know what they are doing and are not making decisions in the interests of the RoC.

Right now, I am getting a good dose of TMT propaganda from TV via satellite. Shameful.

I am really embarrassed mate. Almost despondent!

[DT.]

Without going in to the rights and wrongs of our situation, I can quite understand why the international community is totally fed up with us! Does nobody else see this?

I can only imagine...Hell! I'm fed up with us.

I too can understand this!

DT, your politicians are really pathetic. They really do not know what they are doing and are not making decisions in the interests of the RoC.

Right now, I am getting a good dose of TMT propaganda from TV via satellite. Shameful.

I am really embarrassed mate. Almost despondent!

Not a big fan of Your and My politicians mate, if you remember our last chat after an insensitive comment i made about Cypriots abroad I changed my tune. On the back of that these are the politicians that are currently runnin' the show here in Cyprus and the ones that are currently making the decisions you're up here defending or attacking on the cyprob...

So now that we've defined these as OUR politicians, I agree they stink.

Oh and by the way mate, not as if our politicians needed help in f***ing things up but YOUR f***wit idiot of a politician Downer has added a select f***up flavour to this whole process we've never had before.

[Paphitis]

Without going in to the rights and wrongs of our situation, I can quite understand why the international community is totally fed up with us! Does nobody else see this?

I can only imagine...Hell! I'm fed up with us.

I too can understand this!

DT, your politicians are really pathetic. They really do not know what they are doing and are not making decisions in the interests of the RoC.

Right now, I am getting a good dose of TMT propaganda from TV via satellite. Shameful.

I am really embarrassed mate. Almost despondent!

Not a big fan of Your and My politicians mate, if you remember our last chat after an insensitive comment i made about Cypriots abroad I changed my tune. On the back of that these are the politicians that are currently runnin' the show here in Cyprus and the ones that are currently making the decisions you're up here defending or attacking on the cyprob...

So now that we've defined these as OUR politicians, I agree they stink.

Oh and by the way mate, not as if our politicians needed help in f***ing things up but YOUR f***wit idiot of a politician Downer has added a select f***up flavour to this whole process we've never had before.

I really must insist. They are YOUR politicians. Cypriot citizens in Oz are not allowed to vote and we don't have private charters to exercise that right.

Over here, we also have some bad politicians, but even they are no match for your politicians.

The RoC's politicians don't represent me and I for one am unwilling to accept any credit for them.

As for Alexander Downer, there really isn't a great deal he can do for you. He did not create the process under way, and is not allowed to offer any input. He can only oversee the talks, report back to the UN GS, and try to encourage both parties to intensify the process. That is about it I'm afraid.

If you don't like the process, what is being discussed, and/or believe that little progress is being made, then have a go at Christofias who signed you up to these talks and placed the RoC in a difficult position.

And on a personal level, AD accepts that some TC demands are unreasonable and reports accordingly. The man himself is a highly respected politician here. He was one of Australia's big 3. Howard, Costello and Downer was one of the best administrations Australia had seen in a long time other than Fraser himself!

No one can ever criticise that AD was an incompetent polician. FA minister for 12 years mate!