Acikgoz wrote:The RoC will capitulate - there will be a situation where they have a choice but to allow ports for entry and exit direct to the north - if they do not then bi-lateral arrangements will undermine the perceived sovereignty of the hold of the South over the entire island. They will be pressured, behind closed doors, open the ports or we will just ignore your decree as Cyprus is ........ (fill in whatever justification that is politically palatable).
TRNC is no Taiwan, but RoC is no China either. Cyprus is part of the EU, but post Lisbon treaty implementation, the leverage Cyprus can use with other EU members to protect its political aspirations will diminish.
Perhaps the TRNC won't be able to trade direct with other EU members, but there is nothing to stop it trading with other nations outside the EU. For example, outside of PR, RoC can do nothing about the ferry services from the middle east (note I'm not debating their value but their presence).
The RoC could start sabre rattling, threaten law suits or war, this would lose the RoC international support for her isolation measures further. The cracks on the dam are real and there is a trickle. The RoC can manage the speed of the inevitable, however it must show it can act responsibly if it is to have justification for the position it deems itself to be in as representative of the wole island.
Which brings us to the subject of (what I always asked in this forum) - for what purpose do the GCs want their fellow countrymen TCs depend solely on trade with Turkey only, use Turkish Airlines only. and rely solely on Turkiye for their economic and social existence? In terms of being a financial burden it is a srtaw in a haystack for Turkey. Meanwhile the economic pressure on some TCs will encourage more of them to leave the North for foreign land - to be replaced by the not so well off mainland Turkish substitutes who really do not give a damn about the economics of the island. SO! While GCs defend their stupid stubborn embargo ideas any possibility of a Federal Republic is fast diminishing and a real partition is becoming inevitable...
BTW is Turkiye complaining? They are not losing on anything because of any embargoes in North Cyprus - on the contrary the GCs in South are begging for their ships to be allowed to use Turkish ports, and Cyprus Airways to be allowed to use the Turkish airspace. Is Turkiye bothered.
Get real! If you do try and get real for a change you will see that Cyorus Airways made a loss of 3.28 million Euros last year. And guess what? The same CA is claiming it cost them 3 million EU last year to go around the Turkish airspace for flights to Central Europe and Russia! So it seems the very survival of the national airline in the South is depending on the ongoing deadlock about the embargoes...