Cyprus-Forum.com

[Get Real!]

Knocking all the zero's off the currency was just cosmetic. The exchange rate stayed the same:
i.e.
1 pound was worth 2,500,000TL or 2.50YTL - same difference.
The two "currencies" ran together for a year when the "old" TL was dropped and the "new" TL joined the YTL. Since then, the YTL has been dropped and we are now using the "new" TL.

Banking isn't your strength so don't give up the day job.

You incompetent nincompoop!

So you now come back to admit that Turkey invented a new denomination to save herself the embarrassment of being one of the world’s least valued currency units, which is what I’ve been telling you from day one!

Throughout the 90s Turkey suffered from chronic inflation to the point where by 2005 the highest denomination was 20 million lira for 1 US$ and you want to brag about the Turkish currency???

You brainless old geezer…

[IMPOSTALIEDUS]

what some of you are also missing is if you are investing in currancy you also get interest,so if you are looking at the pound you will get nowt in interest ,in the euro,, nowt,,but if you are in tl you can get 6.75apr payable monthly,this buying and banking of lira is one of the factors that makes it jump in value, so out of the currancies at the moment the tl is as good as any ,if not better than most,, i am really glad i am not in the euro zone ,it is really in the shit

[Get Real!]

what some of you are also missing is if you are investing in currancy you also get interest,so if you are looking at the pound you will get nowt in interest ,in the euro,, nowt,,but if you are in tl you can get 6.75apr payable monthly,this buying and banking of lira is one of the factors that makes it jump in value, so out of the currancies at the moment the tl is as good as any ,if not better than most,, i am really glad i am not in the euro zone ,it is really in the shit

Not even currency giants like Thomas Cook who monitor global currency fluctuations on their screens from morning to dusk get it always right…

[IMPOSTALIEDUS]

what some of you are also missing is if you are investing in currancy you also get interest,so if you are looking at the pound you will get nowt in interest ,in the euro,, nowt,,but if you are in tl you can get 6.75apr payable monthly,this buying and banking of lira is one of the factors that makes it jump in value, so out of the currancies at the moment the tl is as good as any ,if not better than most,, i am really glad i am not in the euro zone ,it is really in the shit

Not even currency giants like Thomas Cook who monitor global currency fluctuations on their screens from morning to dusk get it always right…

I agree currency purchase is a gamble but what isnt,i changed a lot of lira into pounds 2 days ago ,and i will hope after the election the pound will gain ,then i will change into what ever currency,,,, possibly back int tl ,i will keep you updated

[Kikapu]

Don't get stuck on my 1 year statement.

No of course I should not 'get stuckl' on what you actualy said and measure that against real historical facts, I should just suck up the essence of you propaganda even when it does not match actual historical facts at all.

You simply use the oldest statacians trick of choosing a start point that best reflects the argument you are trying to make. Even then it does not support your original BS claims. As the old saying goes there are lies, dam lies and statistics. Or maybe that should read there are lies , damm lies and GC propgandists claims about the value of the TL vs other currencies past present and future ?

The claim that you made was bollocks. It remains bollocks despite your 'graphs'. That is simple fact.

You also forget the inflation factor on the Turkish currency where it's purchasing power is reduced when you have around 10% inflation rate per year. Add that to the loss of direct currency exchange between those major world currencies, and you reach 20% loss value in the TL in no time.

You clearly do not have the slightest understanding of these matters do you ? How much more or less of a given good in a foreign currecny I can buy with TL over time, having factored out the exchange rate movments, is not related to the infaltion rate in Turkey, but to the inflation rate of the currency in which I am buying in. To say the that the TL has lost x% vs another currency in a given time period, but because inflation in turkey in that time has been y% the real loss in the value of TL currency relative to the other one is x+y% is simply more bullshit from you. It just does not work that way. The exchange rate between two currecnies at a given point in time IS the relative values of those currencies at that point in time. To then 'modify' this fact by some other amount, like the inflation rate in turkey and then say actually this new modified amount is the relative values of said currencies is the idea either of an idiot or a propagandist. I give you the benefit of the doubt and call you a propagandist but I could be wrong you could just be an idiot. In fact its probably the case that you are both and idiot and a progandist but that is just speculation on my part.

You also seem to totaly misunderstand inflation and what it means to a normal person 'in the street'. An inflation rate of 10% in a country that has a general economic growth rate of 10% also , means in real terms people in that country are no better or worse off than someone in a country with an inflation rate of 0% and a economic growth rate of 0%. However for investors, foreign or domestic, the former is a much more attractive location for their funds than the later.

So, it is not about propaganda as you seem to suggest, but facts, that the TL can only go one direction, and that is down.

You start with bullshit, shown to be BS by hard historical undeniable facts. You then try and justify that plain BS with slighlty more 'sophisticated' BS but BS none the less and then revert back to the plain old BS again, all in an effort to show you are not a propagandist ? Its laughable.

If you were and are right that there is only one direction that the TL can go in , then you and anyone who believes you, should be the richest person around, having used this 'knowledged' to sell the TL short on the markets and made a guaranteed profit. You are not I would venture to suggested the richest person around because your 'knowledge' is just BS - shown by historical undeniable data.

Erolz,

Yes, you are stuck on the 1 year claim and not accepting the fact that the Turkish Lira is and always will be on decline against world's major currencies. You refuse to accept the charts I have provided you with, just because you think that they only have a "start and a finish point" to show where the Turkish Lira has suffered and conveniently accuse me of propaganda. So if i said that the Turkish Lira has lost about 20% against the world's major currencies over the last 1 1/2 years, then it would be acceptable to you, is that it.?? The point is, September of 2008 was the starting point of the recent financial crises, where as most major currencies have maintained their positions, as well as some losing, they have done far better than the Turkish Lira, except for the British Pound. Go ahead and show me charts going back how ever long you want and show me where the TL shows a trend of movement in appreciation in value against other world's major currencies, if you can, which you will not be able to...Sorry.!!

You can ignore the above charts which was based on the last two years and go back as far as five years if you want, which I will not bother to make them for you, and it will not change anything. The trend of the Turkish Lira has lost ground against all the currencies I gave charts for, all except for the British Pound, which has kept pace with the TL. You can go back 10 year, and the trend will be the same, I'm sure, so, the movement trend of the TL is always going down against world currencies, and that is not propaganda, but fact, no matter how much you want to try and dispute them.

As far as the 10% inflation goes, in answering VW's question, we were talking about the "trnc" and not Turkey, therefore do not bring the economic growth rate of 10% for Turkey which would balance out against the 10% inflation, because the "trnc" does not have any economic growth to speak of, and since the north is using the TL as their official currency as well as having an inflation rate of 9-10%, then it does effect the average man on the street. You should know, since you live in the north. I was not talking about Turkey, but the north and the Turkish Lira and what it means to those who live there.

What makes you think people have not made money on selling the TL short. ?? But more realistically, I don't think many would take the chance on going short or long on the TL, just because it is not very stable and can move very rapidly one way or the other in a relatively short time. it is not so much that the TL controls it's own destiny, but becomes a loser or a short term winner based on the actions of other countries economic gains or loses at any given time. Over the long haul, the TL has always been a loser and will continue to being a loser against other world currencies, that's all.

[IMPOSTALIEDUS]

Don't get stuck on my 1 year statement.

No of course I should not 'get stuckl' on what you actualy said and measure that against real historical facts, I should just suck up the essence of you propaganda even when it does not match actual historical facts at all.

You simply use the oldest statacians trick of choosing a start point that best reflects the argument you are trying to make. Even then it does not support your original BS claims. As the old saying goes there are lies, dam lies and statistics. Or maybe that should read there are lies , damm lies and GC propgandists claims about the value of the TL vs other currencies past present and future ?

The claim that you made was bollocks. It remains bollocks despite your 'graphs'. That is simple fact.

You also forget the inflation factor on the Turkish currency where it's purchasing power is reduced when you have around 10% inflation rate per year. Add that to the loss of direct currency exchange between those major world currencies, and you reach 20% loss value in the TL in no time.

You clearly do not have the slightest understanding of these matters do you ? How much more or less of a given good in a foreign currecny I can buy with TL over time, having factored out the exchange rate movments, is not related to the infaltion rate in Turkey, but to the inflation rate of the currency in which I am buying in. To say the that the TL has lost x% vs another currency in a given time period, but because inflation in turkey in that time has been y% the real loss in the value of TL currency relative to the other one is x+y% is simply more bullshit from you. It just does not work that way. The exchange rate between two currecnies at a given point in time IS the relative values of those currencies at that point in time. To then 'modify' this fact by some other amount, like the inflation rate in turkey and then say actually this new modified amount is the relative values of said currencies is the idea either of an idiot or a propagandist. I give you the benefit of the doubt and call you a propagandist but I could be wrong you could just be an idiot. In fact its probably the case that you are both and idiot and a progandist but that is just speculation on my part.

You also seem to totaly misunderstand inflation and what it means to a normal person 'in the street'. An inflation rate of 10% in a country that has a general economic growth rate of 10% also , means in real terms people in that country are no better or worse off than someone in a country with an inflation rate of 0% and a economic growth rate of 0%. However for investors, foreign or domestic, the former is a much more attractive location for their funds than the later.

So, it is not about propaganda as you seem to suggest, but facts, that the TL can only go one direction, and that is down.

You start with bullshit, shown to be BS by hard historical undeniable facts. You then try and justify that plain BS with slighlty more 'sophisticated' BS but BS none the less and then revert back to the plain old BS again, all in an effort to show you are not a propagandist ? Its laughable.

If you were and are right that there is only one direction that the TL can go in , then you and anyone who believes you, should be the richest person around, having used this 'knowledged' to sell the TL short on the markets and made a guaranteed profit. You are not I would venture to suggested the richest person around because your 'knowledge' is just BS - shown by historical undeniable data.

Erolz,

Yes, you are stuck on the 1 year claim and not accepting the fact that the Turkish Lira is and always will be on decline against world's major currencies. You refuse to accept the charts I have provided you with, just because you think that they only have a "start and a finish point" to show where the Turkish Lira has suffered and conveniently accuse me of propaganda. So if i said that the Turkish Lira has lost about 20% against the world's major currencies over the last 1 1/2 years, then it would be acceptable to you, is that it.?? The point is, September of 2008 was the starting point of the recent financial crises, where as most major currencies have maintained their positions, as well as some losing, they have done far better than the Turkish Lira, except for the British Pound. Go ahead and show me charts going back how ever long you want and show me where the TL shows a trend of movement in appreciation in value against other world's major currencies, if you can, which you will not be able to...Sorry.!!

You can ignore the above charts which was based on the last two years and go back as far as five years if you want, which I will not bother to make them for you, and it will not change anything. The trend of the Turkish Lira has lost ground against all the currencies I gave charts for, all except for the British Pound, which has kept pace with the TL. You can go back 10 year, and the trend will be the same, I'm sure, so, the movement trend of the TL is always going down against world currencies, and that is not propaganda, but fact, no matter how much you want to try and dispute them.

As far as the 10% inflation goes, in answering VW's question, we were talking about the "trnc" and not Turkey, therefore do not bring the economic growth rate of 10% for Turkey which would balance out against the 10% inflation, because the "trnc" does not have any economic growth to speak of, and since the north is using the TL as their official currency as well as having an inflation rate of 9-10%, then it does effect the average man on the street. You should know, since you live in the north. I was not talking about Turkey, but the north and the Turkish Lira and what it means to those who live there.

What makes you think people have not made money on selling the TL short. ?? But more realistically, I don't think many would take the chance on going short or long on the TL, just because it is not very stable and can move very rapidly one way or the other in a relatively short time. it is not so much that the TL controls it's own destiny, but becomes a loser or a short term winner based on the actions of other countries economic gains or loses at any given time. Over the long haul, the TL has always been a loser and will continue to being a loser against other world currencies, that's all.

who gives a shit what the tl did 10 years ago look at what it is doing in the last 2months. thats what the money guys are looking at ,short term (thats say 2month) ,,, some may take a long term look,just think of what the tl would do if turkey gets a nod on its eu bid the tl would rocket ,,,but its all a gamble BUT forget inflation as the buyers of tl are getting up to 7.5 in turkey on thier investment thats far more than they would get on the dollar or the pound

[erolz3]

Yes, you are stuck on the 1 year claim and not accepting the fact that the Turkish Lira is and always will be on decline against world's major currencies.

That is no more credible than sayin red will always come up more on a roulette wheel than black. Its just total nonsense.

You refuse to accept the charts I have provided you with, just because you think that they only have a "start and a finish point" to show where the Turkish Lira has suffered and conveniently accuse me of propaganda. So if i said that the Turkish Lira has lost about 20% against the world's major currencies over the last 1 1/2 years, then it would be acceptable to you, is that it.??

What I refuse to accept is your claim that the TL has lost at least 20% of it value relative to other major currencies, be that in the last year or last year and a half. I refuse to accept it because it it is not true lol. It was not true for last year, its not true for last year and half and your charts only show it is not true for last 1.5 years just as my figures for last year showed it was not true.

You can ignore the above charts which was based on the last two years and go back as far as five years if you want, which I will not bother to make them for you, and it will not change anything.

Ideed it will not change the fact that the claim that the TC has lost at least 20% against major currencies in the last year or last year and half is just not true. Your own charts do not show an 'at least' 20% loss'.

As far as the 10% inflation goes, in answering VW's question, we were talking about the "trnc" and not Turkey,....

No Kikapu you claimed that the relative value of the Turkish lira to other currenices should not be taken just as the exchange rate (which IS by defination the relative value) but should also include an adjustment fot the infaltion rate in Turkey - a totaly absurd notion.

What makes you think people have not made money on selling the TL short. ??

Of course people have made money selling it short as they have selling it long. The point is if what you said was true, that there is an undisputable consistent downward trend and if this was true anyone and everyone would be making money it just as they would if the riduclous notion that red always came in more often than black on roulette was true.

[Paphitis]

Australia has a Trillion Dollar economy......

You seemed to have missed my point Paphitis.

Kikapus claim was "the TL that has lost at least 20% of its value against major world currencies in the last 1 year"

The facts actualy show this claim is just total sheer nonsense. As to if you think the Aus dollar is or is not a 'major currecny' is irrelevant to the point I am making - namely that kikapus claim is just bollocks if you care anything for actual facts. I included the Aus dollar even though it was an extreme case of TL loss vs another currency in last twelve months, regardless of if it is or is not a major currecny because even in this aytpical case we still do not get to Kikapus made up BS propaganda figure of 20% loss that supposedly applies to (all) major currencies according to him.

You see my point now ?

No I did understand what you were driving at mate!

Now, I am not an economist and find the subject quite boring as a matter of fact, but to be fair to both you and Kikapu, you are probably both correct.

Just from some very basic analysis on my part, it appears that you are correct in that the TL is holding its ground against the major currencies such as the USD, and EURO. I haven't looked at the other currencies.

But let's be honest here Erolz. The USD and EURO have been in sharp decline. The USD has lost 30% against the AUD, and the EURO has also lost about 25% against the AUD. The TL has lost some 20% against the AUD.

So the only stable currencies at the moment seem to be the AUD, and CAD. Therefore, the TL has only kept its ground against currencies that are in free fall, due to the financial crisis in the US and Europe. The TL has not kept pace with the AUD, which I verified myself, and I assume it hasn't kept pace with the CAD. As a result, it is fair to say that the TL hasn't been doing very well since it is only keeping in step with other currencies which are collapsing, which means that the TL collapse has almost (it is slightly better) been uniform with the USD and EURO.

Anyway, that is all I want to say about this subject because it is not a topic I have researched in detail or a topic that interests me a great deal. I leave it to you and Kikapu!

[Kikapu]

Yes, you are stuck on the 1 year claim and not accepting the fact that the Turkish Lira is and always will be on decline against world's major currencies.

That is no more credible than sayin red will always come up more on a roulette wheel than black. Its just total nonsense.

You refuse to accept the charts I have provided you with, just because you think that they only have a "start and a finish point" to show where the Turkish Lira has suffered and conveniently accuse me of propaganda. So if i said that the Turkish Lira has lost about 20% against the world's major currencies over the last 1 1/2 years, then it would be acceptable to you, is that it.??

What I refuse to accept is your claim that the TL has lost at least 20% of it value relative to other major currencies, be that in the last year or last year and a half. I refuse to accept it because it it is not true lol. It was not true for last year, its not true for last year and half and your charts only show it is not true for last 1.5 years just as my figures for last year showed it was not true.

You can ignore the above charts which was based on the last two years and go back as far as five years if you want, which I will not bother to make them for you, and it will not change anything.

Ideed it will not change the fact that the claim that the TC has lost at least 20% against major currencies in the last year or last year and half is just not true. Your own charts do not show an 'at least' 20% loss'.

As far as the 10% inflation goes, in answering VW's question, we were talking about the "trnc" and not Turkey,....

No Kikapu you claimed that the relative value of the Turkish lira to other currenices should not be taken just as the exchange rate (which IS by defination the relative value) but should also include an adjustment fot the infaltion rate in Turkey - a totaly absurd notion.

What makes you think people have not made money on selling the TL short. ??

Of course people have made money selling it short as they have selling it long. The point is if what you said was true, that there is an undisputable consistent downward trend and if this was true anyone and everyone would be making money it just as they would if the riduclous notion that red always came in more often than black on roulette was true.

Erolz,

You are still hanging onto the 1 year claim. As I have explained, don't get fixated on what the TL has done or not done in the last 1 year, but overall since the financial crises started and before. Since I'm talking about the Turkish Lira and the "trnc" in answering VW's question then you have to take into consideration of the inflation rate of the north being around 10% per year and how that devalues the purchasing power of the TL in the north. My response was based on the quotes from below. You can clearly see we are talking about the north and not Turkey.

"I just hope they don't drag the whole Eurozone down with them. Because I live in the Eurozone!"

As a Brit who lives in the TRNC, I'm happy to say "I don't".

http://www.cyprus-forum.com/viewtopic.p ... c&start=60


It is you who has interjected Turkey into the conversation and not me. We are Talking about the TL, it's performance against basket of major world currencies, and the only currency the TL has done "well", is against the British Pound, just by default, because they have been bruised badly since the crises began late 2008.

Here are more charts going back 5 years and tell us how well the TL has done. When you take in the averages from the major currencies against the TL, the TL loses big time. But if it makes you feel better, I would definitely play the RED all the time than play the TL. At least by betting on the RED all the time, I have a better chance of winning than betting on the TL in the long run. As I've said, the TL has nowhere to go but down, and that will become even more evident if Turkey does not make it into the EU, since it is already priced into the TL, that Turkey will make it. Watch the fireworks go of in the TL if and when Turkey is refused entry as a EU member. She may salvage some loses if Turkey comes as a "privileged member", but if Turkey says no to that offer and the EU door is closed for good, even I will bet short on the TL big time, if I can place my orders in time.!:wink:

By you being stuck on the 1 year claim, you are most certainly "not seeing the forest through the trees" when it comes to the TL. You can try and dispute the facts all you want by trying to upgrade the TL as much as possible, but as the past proves, that the TL's trajectory has always been on the downward slide against the world's major currencies and I don't see any reason why that would change anytime soon..

[DT.]

DId someone just say that the inflation rate in a country does not discount the value of the currency?

The increase in price of goods and services erodes the purchasing power of that currency. Whoever implied otherwise should take court action against their school.