Cyprus-Forum.com

[halil]

The Cyprus question from now on

What will happen now? The first scenario is the collapse of peace talks and the start of a permanent separation process. That means northern Cyprus effectively becoming the 82nd province of Turkey, the de facto end of Turkey-EU membership negotiations and the Turkish Armed Forces, or TSK, being settled in the island permanently. Economic sanctions that the EU has applied to northern Cyprus from the beginning and the settlers from Anatolia have made northern Cyprus a totally dependent piece of land. Such a burden, including military costs, will not hurt Turkey's economy, but obviously it has a political price tag on it: The TSK going back to barracks in Turkey will continue to be involved in politics in northern Cyprus on a de facto basis. And with the end of EU talks, the present perception both inside and outside Turkey that “Turkey is turning its back to the West” will be reinforced.

On the other hand, the Republic of Cyprus in the south will not be affected much by this scenario. Greek Cypriots who are the member of the EU, having excellent relations with the Arab World and the Orthodox World starting with Russia, having expertise in offshore banking and attracting 3 million tourists a year could bear the consequences of a permanent separation.

In the face of this black scenario, a second possibility for Turkey is to make unilateral compromises to pave the way for solution and take necessary steps in this direction. President Abdullah Gül keeps saying that it is unacceptable that the Cyprus question could handicap Turkey. In fact, Turkey's international ambitions are more important than Cyprus. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, despite all his nationalist rhetoric, repeated over the weekend that the talks must go on. Along this policy line, Eroğlu may be forced to remain at the table and stick with current negotiation parameters. And for the sake of EU membership talks, Turkey can open air and sea ports unilaterally. However this scenario is not realistic in advance of the 2011 elections in Turkey. Let’s not forget that the opposition will provide unconditional support to Eroğlu.

Therefore, a third scenario could be envisaged. Prime Minister Erdoğan and the president of the Republic of Cyprus, Dimitris Christofias, have already voiced multilateral processes. In addition to the two sides in Cyprus, the names of Turkey, Greece, the EU, the United Nations Secretariat and the five permanent members of the U.N. General Council have been uttered so far. Probably, the remedy will be found in this option. If a solution is desired in Cyprus, which is a big obstacle for all concerned, it is nonsense to keep talks limited to the two leaders. Considering the fact that Eroğlu is incapable of negotiating and has no intention of doing so, as Christofias is facing a great deal of trouble in the governing coalition, the “two negotiator formula” has no future.

In advance of Prime Minister Erdoğan’s official visit to the Greek capital Athens on May 14, no progress should be expected. But the visit could trigger a new process suggesting a comprehensive approach to all existing feuds between Turks and Greeks, including the Cyprus conflict. In the meantime, a serious and comprehensive crisis management is needed on the island.


http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php? ... 2010-04-22

[Pyrpolizer]

4th scenario: TURKEY WILL HANDLE THE OCCUPIED TO THE EU, and get herself out and clear.

[DT.]

I must admit that the international conference option is looking more and more realistic.

With the clown that just got elected in the occupied areas, there's no future in 1 to 1 talks. Everyone can see that, so the international conference will be a chance for the President to negotiate directly with Erdogan.

[Acikgoz]

But RoC has challenged an international conference on Cyprus for ages - what will make them change this policy in light of the article that says end of talks will not adversely affect GCs.

[DT.]

But RoC has challenged an international conference on Cyprus for ages - what will make them change this policy in light of the article that says end of talks will not adversely affect GCs.

I'm not sure but my feeling is that as long as the states are separated from any comunities being represented, then the conference might be accepted by the govt.

[Acikgoz]

DT can you explain pls, not sure what you mean.

[Sotos]

DT can you explain pls, not sure what you mean.

It means that Cyprus will be represented by its president Christofias and then there will also be two representatives of the two communities. We will appoint somebody as the representative of our community, maybe some Mayor, and you can appoint somebody to represent your community. You can choose Errorglue if you want but since he is illiterate and he can't even speak English I don't think he will be of any use. Not that you need anybody intelligent at such conference of course... when the puppeteer will be in the conference the presence of the puppet is purely cosmetic.

[Hatter]

I must admit that the international conference option is looking more and more realistic.

With the clown that just got elected in the occupied areas, there's no future in 1 to 1 talks. Everyone can see that, so the international conference will be a chance for the President to negotiate directly with Erdogan.

There was an international conference before, was there not? In Burgenstock. We all know how constructive that was.

Perhaps if all permanent members of the UN SC are amongst the participants then an international conference might have a chance. But what will then happen if the conference fails to find a solution?

[wyoming cowboy]

Conference my ass, Turkey had two years to pull the strings on Talat to reach a decision......None came, another farce where Christofias will be put in a corner and threatened from all sides from Turkey, England usa, Europe and the nuns at the Christian school in Nicosia.....They will all line up to take their potshot at Comrade X......Smells like Zurich all over again...

[Nikitas]

Yes, it does smell like Zurich and we know what a wonderful well oiled machine that one produced.

The other possible situation is that Turkey pressures the TCs to appoint Talat sole negotiator in the international conference and the talks are carried on from the point that they left off and there is a speedy solution. Just speculation since we are talking scenarios. Talat has a rapport with Christofias, and knows the full scope of what has been agreed and discussed so far.