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Three scenarios ! ?

How can we solve it? (keep it civilized)

Postby Hatter » Sun Apr 25, 2010 2:24 am

wyoming cowboy wrote:Conference my ass, Turkey had two years to pull the strings on Talat to reach a decision......None came, another farce where Christofias will be put in a corner and threatened from all sides from Turkey, England usa, Europe and the nuns at the Christian school in Nicosia.....They will all line up to take their potshot at Comrade X......Smells like Zurich all over again...


My point exactly, WY Cowboy. But if push comes to shove, Cy can insist that all permanent members of the UN SC participate. Then you will see the idea of "international conference" go down like a lead baloon. Trouble is, we have no way of knowing when the line-up to take potshots at Comrade X will have started. Not sure if you mean Zurich or Burgenstock or both, but certainly places of Swiss cheese seem to attract rats!!

PS: " ... and the nuns at the Christian school in Nicosia ", huh ? :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Postby Acikgoz » Sun Apr 25, 2010 6:49 am

Sotos wrote:
Acikgoz wrote:DT can you explain pls, not sure what you mean.


It means that Cyprus will be represented by its president Christofias and then there will also be two representatives of the two communities. We will appoint somebody as the representative of our community, maybe some Mayor, and you can appoint somebody to represent your community.


DT is this what you mean, is this what you believe could be considered as a likely scenario?
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Postby DT. » Sun Apr 25, 2010 8:09 am

Acikgoz wrote:
Sotos wrote:
Acikgoz wrote:DT can you explain pls, not sure what you mean.


It means that Cyprus will be represented by its president Christofias and then there will also be two representatives of the two communities. We will appoint somebody as the representative of our community, maybe some Mayor, and you can appoint somebody to represent your community.


DT is this what you mean, is this what you believe could be considered as a likely scenario?


The jist of it, yes. If at the conference a clear distinction is made between the Government of Cyprus and the TC community then the govt will probably go for it. What it wants to avoid is recognition by association where head of states are sitting round a table and the TC leader assumes a similar status.
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Postby Gasman » Sun Apr 25, 2010 10:19 am

Cy can insist that all permanent members of the UN SC participate. Then you will see the idea of "international conference" go down like a lead baloon.


Yes - Turkey might have stated that Cyprus is top of their Foreign Policy Agenda, but I doubt it tops anyone else's. Not least because no 'bloodshed' is involved in the problem.
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Postby Pyrpolizer » Sun Apr 25, 2010 10:34 am

I don't know how DT got the idea for an international conference from what I said in my post.

Hehehe, I 've put my idea in my signature. Yep that's the only solution.


The occupied will be delivered to Brussels to administrate according to EU aquis. At the same time there will be a de-militarisation schedule as per Anan Plan. Brussels will appoint a local governor at the occupied surrounded by foreign Ministers ex-politicians from EU countries. Local government personnel and Police will be TCs. Varoshia will be returned to GCs, direct trade, direct flights will start, the inability of RoC to excercise effectively the EU law at the occupied will simply replaced by a Brussels appointed local administration. It will take about 10 years to resolve the property issue. Most of the settlers will be encouraged or forced to leave, and be replaced by real TCs now living abroad. After the propery issue is resolved the 2 areas will be joined in some form of Federal Government... The bizonality issue will be very vague, in fact the areas under the admin of each side will change continuously according to population majority.
And that will be the end to a stupid problem that ruined the lives of 2+ generations.

8) 8) 8)
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Postby Viewpoint » Sun Apr 25, 2010 10:46 am

Why should Turkey abandone us without an agreed solution?
Last edited by Viewpoint on Sun Apr 25, 2010 11:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby halil » Sun Apr 25, 2010 11:33 am

scenarios ! ?

A model of balance?

Hugh Pope, the Turkey/Cyprus project director at the International Crisis Group, is of the conviction that there is too much obsession and focus on the issue of what is in compliance with UN parameters in regards to assessing the results of the KKTC elections, while he noted that the definition of parameters is a flexible issue.

“Sometimes, two sides call the same thing with different names and sometimes they call the different things with the same name. As long as Eroğlu is not talking about an independent state, there is no real problem,” Pope told Sunday’s Zaman, when reminded of commentaries arguing that Eroğlu’s opposition to the principle of single sovereignty is equal to opposing UN parameters, which are the grounds for negotiations.

“The key thing is the Turkish position, and the Turkish position has been the same since 2003, which is willingness for solution. So far it has been the Greek Cypriots who appeared uncertain over whether they want a deal or not, and this is the biggest problem,” Pope said.

“It is too early to prejudge Eroğlu’s performance. He already said he will continue talks, and that’s what matters,” Pope added.

While underlining that the principle of single sovereignty has never become a part of the UN parameters regarding Cyprus, Mehmet Hasgüler, an associate professor at Çanakkale 18 Mart University, has another perspective on election results, saying Eroğlu’s presence at the negotiating table can be more advantageous than the previous situation at the table.

“Everybody has described Talat and Christofias as ‘pro-settlement’ from the beginning, forgetting; however, that the latter has actually acted as a ‘Mr.No’,” Hasgüler said, referring to the fact that while Talat’s CTP supported the Annan plan at the time, the Progressive Party of Working People (AKEL), then led by Christofias, said “no” to the Annan plan.

“Eroğlu had also said ‘no’ to the plan; thus now we have two sides who had both objected to the same plan. Maybe this can offer a model of balance at the table. Moreover, Eroğlu’s presence at the negotiating table will be positive for healing nationalist concerns both in the KKTC and in Turkey. A resolution which would be embraced by Eroğlu is likely to have no problem of ‘national legitimacy’,” Hasgüler, also an expert on Cyprus and the EU at the Ankara-based International Strategic Research Organization (USAK), said.

“Such a resolution would also ‘zeroize’ political risks for the [ruling] AK Party [Justice and Development Party] who will face general elections by 2011 because neither the CHP [main opposition Republican People’s Party] nor the MHP [Nationalist Movement Party] would object to a deal blessed by Eroğlu. Thus neither opposition party would be able use the issue as a tool against the ruling party.”



25 April 2010, Sunday

http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/news- ... cuses.html
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Postby Pyrpolizer » Sun Apr 25, 2010 1:35 pm

Viewpoint wrote:Why should Turkey abandone us without an agreed solution?


You said it VP. Agreed solution impossible. And it will not really abandon you from one day to another.

Look at the facts:
The so called "trnc" is considered a puppet administration of Turkey.
By it's own nature this administration does not operate according to EU laws, in fact it is based on theft and exploitation of GC properties and appartheit. Replace this administration by some government appointed directly from Brussels and part of the problem gets solved. At first this government will deal with governing as per EU laws without touching the property/settlement issue.These issues will start getting resolved after the first year.

Then comes the matter of security.Turkish troops are here presumably for your safety. There will be a de-militarisation schedule as per Anan Plan that will provide enough security for the next 6 years or so. During this period the property and settlement issue will also be resolved. So when the de-militarisation gets complete there won't be any reason for any disputes/troubles.

There are multiple merits for this "solution".
a)You don't get subject to GC control but directly to Brussels.
b)Turkey gets rid of the headache of Cyprus and heads towards her EU road without any problems.
c)You become 100% EU citizens immediately, with absolutely no restrictions. Direct Trade, direct flights you name it.
d)When everything gets completed, those functions of the 2 administrative parts (ROC administration + the Brussels appointed in the north) that are common and directly related to EU matters get joined easily in a common say "ministry" and that "ministry" forms the skeleton of the new Fed Government. Completing the skeleton will be a matter of agreement between the 2 communities, which at that point would rather be a matter of common sense rather than tough negotiations.

That's all.

SOLUTION!!
8) 8)
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Postby Pyrpolizer » Sun Apr 25, 2010 1:42 pm

Now you tell me what's wrong with this solution. Do you prefer the Eroglu government or some government appointed directly from Brussels? Tony Blair might be your minister of Exterior.. :wink:
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Postby georgios100 » Sun Apr 25, 2010 4:28 pm

There can be only one scenario.

Turkey's wait & see scenario.

1. I don't see Turkey & TNRC rushing to sign any deals with RoC involving giving up even 1" inch of land without a guarantied EU entry.

2. Turkey never gave up any lands "conquered" by war. Most European lands were freed only by means of force, not diplomacy.

3. More countries join the "oppose" list for Turkey's accession into EU. The latest is Bulgaria... veto expected by Greece & RoC as well. Bear in mind, Germany & France (the big guys) oppose vigorously.

4. For all you folks wanting a solution, the wait & see scenario might take place in the year 2025.
EU accepts Turkey = Cyprob solved, if not then nothing.

5. Turkey might attempt annexation of TNRC. This move shall fail, non recognition to continue.

Conclusion.

Unless Turkey produces blockbuster moves ( Varoshia returned, gradual withdrawal of occupied troops, flexibility at the table etc) without anything in return, the situation shall continue as is...

I hope I am wrong. But reality tells me otherwise.

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