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Erdogan must raise his game on Cyprus

Hopes for Cypriot reunification are petering out, leaving Turkey's prime minister with much to do to secure EU accession


o Simon Tisdall
o guardian.co.uk, Monday 19 April 2010 17.00 BST
o Article history


Tayyip Erdogan insists talks will continue despite the election victory of nationalist Dervis Eroglu in northern Cyprus.


If, as most analysts agree, resolving the Cyprus problem is a prerequisite for Turkey's membership of the European Union club, then Turkish Cypriot voters have just effectively blackballed Ankara's bid. But longstanding doubts about Turkey's suitability and readiness to join were in any case already reviving, thanks in large part to its combative prime minister, Tayyip Erdogan.

Sunday's presidential election victory by the veteran nationalist Dervis Eroglu in the unrecognised, Turkish-backed republic of northern Cyprus is a possibly terminal setback for the island's UN-brokered reunification talks. Erdogan was quick to insist the talks would continue – and they probably will, at least for now.

But the positions of the two sides are diverging and hardening, with key issues such as security and property nowhere near solution. The process, resuscitated once after the Greek Cypriot rejection of the UN's Annan plan in 2004, is back on life support. Unless something dramatic happens, it looks doomed to peter out, hastening the day when partition becomes permanent.

Mehmet Talat, the defeated, left-of-centre Turkish Cypriot president, warned earlier this month that victory for the hardline Eroglu would kill the negotiations. "The Turkish Cypriots will be blamed and blame will mean the consolidation of isolation. It will be a difficult time for Turkish Cypriots," he predicted.

Now Talat's worst fears have been realised, it could be a difficult time for Turkey, too. The Cyprus impasse has severely impeded its EU accession talks. Eighteen of the 35 negotiating "chapters" are currently frozen, mostly because of this dispute. It's possible that the 12 chapters now under discussion may be completed this year, at which point Ankara's bid could hit a dead end.

Tempers are fraying. Cemil Cicek, Erdogan's deputy, this month accused "certain EU countries" of behaving "unethically" in using the Cyprus issue to conceal a deeper hostility to majority-Muslim Turkey. This was an allusion to opposition on political, religious and racial grounds in countries such as Greece, Germany, Austria and France.

After recent unproductive meetings with Germany's chancellor, Angela Merkel, and France's president, Nicolas Sarkozy – both of whom urged Turkey to settle for a second-class "privileged partnership" – Erdogan was more forthright. "The EU will only be a Christian club without Turkey," he said. As in Cyprus, the lack of progress has impacted public opinion, with fewer Turks now favouring membership. This trend could in turn hurt Erdogan who faces a strong nationalist, secular challenge in elections due in July 2011.

Erdogan and his Justice and Development party (AKP) were, to some degree, viewed in the west as tame Islamists after first winning power in 2002. But his attempts to loosen restrictions on headscarves, outlaw adultery, and raise taxes on alcohol and tobacco have rung alarm bells at home and abroad.

These concerns have intensified as Erdogan has pursued a crackdown on the military, alleging extensive plots to overthrow him, inserted his own man in the presidency, and tangled with the judiciary and independent media – all self-appointed guarantors of Turkey's secular Kemalist tradition. Contentious reform proposals currently before parliament would alter, among other things, the way judges are appointed. If the changes are blocked by the courts, it could trigger a constitutional crisis and early elections.

Erdogan's voluble opposition to new sanctions on Iran, his avoidable row with the Obama administration over a congressional committee's vote to recognise the "Armenian genocide", and his fierce criticism of Israel have given ammunition to those who argue Turkey is not and never will be European.

Turkey's outreach to Arab neighbours has, meanwhile, led the new social democratic opposition party, the Turkey Movement for Change, to suggest the republic's traditional pro-western, transatlantic outlook, embodied in its Nato membership, is being undermined.

Democratisation and reform are badly needed but Erdogan is going about it the wrong way, said Katinka Barysch of the Centre for European Reform. "A changing Turkey needs a new system of checks and balances … Nevertheless, the system that now seems to be emerging is flawed," she wrote. Erdogan's reforms "smack of political manoeuvring and could discredit the process of constitutional renewal" while the established opposition parties "lack a vision for a modern, dynamic Turkey".

With polls suggesting the AKP may struggle to retain its overall majority at the next election and with Turkey's EU hopes clouded, Erdogan needs to raise his game. A unilateral initiative to settle the Cyprus issue by year's end (his stated aim) starting, say, with staged Turkish troop withdrawals, would be a bold beginning. For added effect, he might even unveil it during his historic visit to Athens next month.

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Simon Tisdall is not normally this critical of Turkey's policy!

Comment is allowed at The Guardian on this item.

[YFred]

Erdogan's enemies have got him on the ropes. His goose is cooked as it were. The only thing that can help him now is progress in the eu. As the roc cannot block it any longer, it is up to France and Germany. If they don't help him, I cannot see how he can survive beyond the next election.

[DT.]

Erdogan's enemies have got him on the ropes. His goose is cooked as it were. The only thing that can help him now is progress in the eu. As the roc cannot block it any longer, it is up to France and Germany. If they don't help him, I cannot see how he can survive beyond the next election.

Why can't Cyprus block Turkey? Are you confusing were the Lisbon Treaty applies again?

[YFred]

Erdogan's enemies have got him on the ropes. His goose is cooked as it were. The only thing that can help him now is progress in the eu. As the roc cannot block it any longer, it is up to France and Germany. If they don't help him, I cannot see how he can survive beyond the next election.

Why can't Cyprus block Turkey? Are you confusing were the Lisbon Treaty applies again?

How many times has Cyprus said they would and how many actual times did they block Turkey?

[DT.]

Erdogan's enemies have got him on the ropes. His goose is cooked as it were. The only thing that can help him now is progress in the eu. As the roc cannot block it any longer, it is up to France and Germany. If they don't help him, I cannot see how he can survive beyond the next election.

Why can't Cyprus block Turkey? Are you confusing were the Lisbon Treaty applies again?

How many times has Cyprus said they would and how many actual times did they block Turkey?

How many chapters has Cyprus got on ice at the moment? Are you a complete moron?

[YFred]

Erdogan's enemies have got him on the ropes. His goose is cooked as it were. The only thing that can help him now is progress in the eu. As the roc cannot block it any longer, it is up to France and Germany. If they don't help him, I cannot see how he can survive beyond the next election.

Why can't Cyprus block Turkey? Are you confusing were the Lisbon Treaty applies again?

How many times has Cyprus said they would and how many actual times did they block Turkey?

How many chapters has Cyprus got on ice at the moment? Are you a complete moron?

Its not cyprus that's done it, It's the crout and the frogs. Wasn't it TPapa who kept saying he was going to block the whole process and have they? like fuck.

When the gernams say sit, you sit, and I think you know where I mean old chap.

[CBBB]

Erdogan's enemies have got him on the ropes. His goose is cooked as it were. The only thing that can help him now is progress in the eu. As the roc cannot block it any longer, it is up to France and Germany. If they don't help him, I cannot see how he can survive beyond the next election.

Why can't Cyprus block Turkey? Are you confusing were the Lisbon Treaty applies again?

How many times has Cyprus said they would and how many actual times did they block Turkey?

How many chapters has Cyprus got on ice at the moment? Are you a complete moron?

Its not cyprus that's done it, It's the crout and the frogs. Wasn't it TPapa who kept saying he was going to block the whole process and have they? like fuck.

When the gernams say sit, you sit, and I think you know where I mean old chap.

A "crout"? Is that the French way of spelling Kraut, what?

[humanist]

DT

Why can't Cyprus block Turkey? Are you confusing were the Lisbon Treaty applies again?

Where does the Lisbon Treaty apply ..... I been out the loop for almost a year. I got no clue what's happening in Cyprus been too busy fighting my ow battles with an intransigent local Council in my part of the World.

[Oracle]

Simon Tisdall is not normally this critical of Turkey's policy!

Yes the tide is turning! The long-awaited balance of power shift is on the horizon.

A combative Muslim-hardliner Erdogan and a belligerent Otto-Tourko-Military ... what a catch for the EU!

Oh ... let's not forget the newly "elected" small fry whirling Dervish!.

Do any of them speak English?

[DT.]

DT

Why can't Cyprus block Turkey? Are you confusing were the Lisbon Treaty applies again?

Where does the Lisbon Treaty apply ..... I been out the loop for almost a year. I got no clue what's happening in Cyprus been too busy fighting my ow battles with an intransigent local Council in my part of the World.

in short mate

The Treaty of Lisbon extends qualified majority voting to new policy areas. It is very much in the European Union's interest to adopt a more streamlined approach to decision-making, including on issues such as fighting climate change, energy security and emergency humanitarian aid to hot-spots around the globe. Some of the other changes address issues like citizens' initiatives, diplomatic and consulate protection, and procedural matters. Unanimity is retained in areas including tax, foreign policy, defence and social security