Cyprus-Forum.com

[boomerang]

how will it work out...the roc a member of the eu, the north not...what would the tcs do?...

accept it or eventually move to the free areas as there eu connection will be null and void...

let us be realistic here...it's not going to be peacefull if enforced...

[Nikitas]

Turkey would never opt for partition. It would make the south totally independent and out of its control.

BBF is the obvious choice, it brings about the masters of the north, partners in the south doctrine that Turkey wants to see on the island.

But if you are talking hypothetically, partition into two truly independent states means that the RoC will have to formally cede territory and be the first state to recognise the north, that is the way to give them undeniable status as a state. All other nations would then have to recognise the new state. Acession to the EU would have to start from scratch for the north.

Also, since each state would be independent, it would have its own undisputed territory, freedom to conclude international agreements, even to unite with another state. So there is the potential that the demarcation line would become a Greek Turkish border, and Greece would then become a Middle Eastern power, something that Turkey does not want to see happen (read Ecevit's statements and those of Turkish generals).

[observer]

Turkey would never opt for partition. It would make the south totally independent and out of its control.

BBF is the obvious choice, it brings about the masters of the north, partners in the south doctrine that Turkey wants to see on the island.

But if you are talking hypothetically, partition into two truly independent states means that the RoC will have to formally cede territory and be the first state to recognise the north, that is the way to give them undeniable status as a state. All other nations would then have to recognise the new state. Acession to the EU would have to start from scratch for the north.

Also, since each state would be independent, it would have its own undisputed territory, freedom to conclude international agreements, even to unite with another state. So there is the potential that the demarcation line would become a Greek Turkish border, and Greece would then become a Middle Eastern power, something that Turkey does not want to see happen (read Ecevit's statements and those of Turkish generals).

I'm puzzled by how you think Greece will become a Middle East power when it is so (relatively) small and financially bankrupt.

[YFred]

Turkey would never opt for partition. It would make the south totally independent and out of its control.

BBF is the obvious choice, it brings about the masters of the north, partners in the south doctrine that Turkey wants to see on the island.

But if you are talking hypothetically, partition into two truly independent states means that the RoC will have to formally cede territory and be the first state to recognise the north, that is the way to give them undeniable status as a state. All other nations would then have to recognise the new state. Acession to the EU would have to start from scratch for the north.

Also, since each state would be independent, it would have its own undisputed territory, freedom to conclude international agreements, even to unite with another state. So there is the potential that the demarcation line would become a Greek Turkish border, and Greece would then become a Middle Eastern power, something that Turkey does not want to see happen (read Ecevit's statements and those of Turkish generals).

I'm puzzled by how you think Greece will become a Middle East power when it is so (relatively) small and financially bankrupt.

..... and crap at fighting too. Them pom poms get in the way when they are running away from the enemy.

[Nikitas]

You interpret the word "power" from a primary schoolbook point of view.

Becoming a regional power means you have to be part of any local deal like the routing of pipelines, management of sea lanes, air travel routes etc.

As for fighting prowess do not bet too much on that. The score card is not in your favor over the long term. And always keep in mind that even a small technological change can render long held military ideas obsolete.

[observer]

You interpret the word "power" from a primary schoolbook point of view.

Becoming a regional power means you have to be part of any local deal like the routing of pipelines, management of sea lanes, air travel routes etc.

As for fighting prowess do not bet too much on that. The score card is not in your favor over the long term. And always keep in mind that even a small technological change can render long held military ideas obsolete.

All the things that you have quoted (pipelines/sea lanes/air travel) are due to Greece's location which won't change a lot. So why should the location that has not made her a Middle East power before now make her a Middle East power?

[Nikitas]

Hypothetially speaking always, if the post partition south decides to unite with Greece, then Greek territorial waters in the area, along with the contiguous zone and Exclusive Economic Zone, reach half way to Egypt. This is what Turkey wants to avoid.

For Turkey it is much easier to "control" an independent Cyprus where the TC minority have politcal equality than a fellow NATO country which is a full EU member that shares common sea frontiers with Syria, Lebanon, Israel and Egypt. And Turkey, being the key proponent of partition all these years will not be able to do zilch about it, the international response would be "you wanted, you got it, now shut your face".

If on the other hand the south decides to remain independent, then it will seek alliances with other powers that will offset Turkish dominance in the area, like Russia and France. Again, Turkey will not want to see either of these powers in such close proximity.

All roads point to BBF. Especially the Turkish roads. Delaying the inevitable is not against Greek interests, it is against Turkish interests. The threat that partition will become permanent etc, is customarily used against the Greek side, but in effect it is an alarm for the Turkish side. The south's Eu accession was the first taste. There will be more to be sure.

[boomerang]

i am more interested as to what the tcs will do?

[Nikitas]

TCs do? What can they do in a situation where they are a minority in their own little area? Imagine what it will be like when they are 150 000 in 75 million!

[boomerang]

TCs do? What can they do in a situation where they are a minority in their own little area? Imagine what it will be like when they are 150 000 in 75 million!

i was wondering how many will move to the free areas...and enjoy EU benefits...