Cyprus-Forum.com

[Malapapa]

Cyprus joke

Friday, April 2, 2010
YUSUF KANLI

For the past few days there has been unaccustomed activity on Cyprus. The activity was not related to the April Fools’ Day, yet, developments indicate there is an intense effort at least to fool the Turkish Cypriot people that a settlement on the island has become discernible once again. The developments suggest they should not change the horse while crossing the stream, or should vote in April 18 polls to keep President Mehmet Ali Talat in office for another five years.

After 71 meetings, the second round of the United Nations-facilitated Cyprus peace talks failed to produce a comprehensive joint statement this week and Talat and his Greek Cypriot counterpart, Dimitris Christofias, managed to issue only a one-page joint statement reaffirming their commitment to a negotiated settlement which they said was “within reach.”

The leader of the Greek Cypriot main opposition DISI party, Nicos Anastassiades, as well as Turkish Cypriot presidential contender Prime Minister Derviş Eroğlu described the optimistic picture presented by the two leaders and the statement of Talat that there has indeed been substantial progress in the talks – in which he believed a solution on the island would be within reach by June – as an “April Fools’ Day.”

Indeed, with his main rival Eroğlu banking on high levels of disillusionment over the talks, Talat believes that creating a perception that there has been some real and serious progress in the Cyprus talks and a Cyprus settlement is within reach might help him in the upcoming presidential vote. Recent opinion polls have shown Talat trailing more than ten points behind Eroğlu.

According to the latest opinion polls, while Eroğlu appears to be heading to a clear victory in the first round of the presidential elections on April 18 with some 51 to 57 percent of the Turkish Cypriot vote, Talat is trailing behind with as low as 37 to 43 percent of the vote, while Tahsin Ertuğruloğlu, a defector from Eroğlu’s National Unity Party, or UBP, who is running in the race as an independent, might receive a negligible 2.6 to 3.5 percent of the vote.

Naturally, while they definitely demonstrate the political inclinations of the Turkish Cypriot people, public opinion polls cannot be a substitute of the elections themselves and perhaps it is wiser not to take so seriously the results of such polls with limited number of people. Furthermore, only one polling company was accurate in its estimations regarding the April 2009 parliamentary elections in north Cyprus. Now, that company’s poll is giving Eroğlu 53 percent and Talat 42 percent.

Still, I believe the contest for the presidency will be a very close one between Eroğlu and Talat and most probably the first vote will be inconclusive and the result will be obtained in the second round of voting on April 25 between the two strongest candidates of the April 18 vote, that is Eroğlu and Talat.

Progress? Where?

While after the 71 meetings Talat and Christofias were even unable to release a joint statement detailing in what areas the views of the two sides converged, Talat boasted Thursday that the negotiating teams of the two sides have recorded over the past months “serious progress” in the areas of governance and power-sharing, the European Union and the economy and that for the first time in more than four decades of talks between the two peoples of the island, 31 convergence documents have been drawn up.

Yet, an examination of what Talat and his aides released this week clearly demonstrated that many of the key demands of the Turkish Cypriot side remained as elusive as ever. There was no mention of how the founding “units” – Greek Cypriots categorically refuse the use of the “constituent states” terminology – would exercise residual sovereign powers, the demand that the overall agreement should become EU primary law and thus be protected from eventual erosion in the future and the powers of the “units” in conducting foreign relations, including cultural and commercial ties.

Furthermore, even though Talat agreed to give in to the Greek Cypriot demands for cross-voting – a mechanism which would allow the two communities to have a 20 percent say on the outcome of the leadership election of the other community, the Turkish Cypriot leader was unable to include that among the issues that had been resolved.

Besides, put aside the very serious disagreements in the governance and power sharing heading, including the citizenship issue and the future of “mainland settlers,” none of the thorny matters of territory, property, and security and guarantees were so far tackled in the past 71 rounds of talks.

Yet, as if he is making a joke, Talat is talking about a settlement by June… As is said in Anatolia, hope is the food of the poor…

I'm starving...

[B25]

Looks like turkey is going to have send over a few more TVs and washing machines if Talat is going to have a chance.

Heres and even better bribe, since a very high number of the remaining TCs are in 'government' jobs, turkey can offer them to keep their jobs if the vote Talat or lose it if not. I am sure out of 70 millions mainlanders there's bound to be some that can replace the TCs

Now thats a joke.

[YFred]

Mal, who do you want to win?

[Malapapa]

Mal, who do you want to win?

It would be nice to believe that, were Talat to be re-elected, an acceptable deal could finally be sealed. The signs, however, are clear that Turkey (including its settlers) are simply unwilling to give him the leeway needed to negotiate in the interests of all Cypriots, ahead of Turkey.

I don't think much of the Talat election poster Vuryek uploaded on the other thread, do you?

In such circumstances, the inept and overtly hardline Eroglu may be better option, as he is more likely to make the sort of political blunders that Denktash made, ie. allowing Cyprus as a whole to slip into the EU.