A clear, brief and to-the-point article from
Hurriyet (AFP)
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=ankara-looms-large-over-turkish-cypriot-election-2010-04-16
Ankara looms large over Turkish Cypriot election
Friday, April 16, 2010
KYRENIA, Cyprus – Agence France-Presse
Whoever emerges victorious from this weekend's election in Turkish Cyprus, Ankara's writ will still hold sway in the breakaway state, analysts believe.
The new Turkish Cypriot leader's room for maneuver will very much depend on Turkey's own policy toward EU member Greek Cyprus at a time when it too aspires to join the European Union, they say.
For Turkish Cypriot voters, the choice on Sunday boils down to two men. Incumbent Mehmet Ali Talat, 58, wants a reunified Cyprus and is seeking a second five-year term. His rival is nationalist Prime Minister Derviş Eroğlu, 72, a veteran politician who leads by 10 percentage points in opinion polls.
Whatever the stance of the election winner, Ankara will have a major say. "There must be no illusions about the new president's room for maneuver," said Cengiz Aktar, an expert on the Cyprus problem. "The [Turkish Cypriot] president is nothing but an undeclared Turkish vassal," the Istanbul University academic said.
If hardliner Eroğlu won, he would be unable to slam the door on continued reunification talks with the Greek Cypriots so as not to torpedo Turkey's chances of eventually joining the European Union, he added.
Peace talks launched in September 2008 are predicated on a federal solution with distinct geographical zones for the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot communities. But Eroğlu has for years favored a two-state solution — a framework vehemently rejected by the Greek Cypriots.
Turkey’s EU bid
Since beginning EU membership talks in 2005, Ankara has succeeded in opening just 12 of the 35 chapters that candidates are required to complete in order to join the 27-nation bloc. Some of them have been deadlocked over Turkey's refusal to open its air and sea ports to Greek Cyprus, an EU member that it does not recognize.
Talat says his re-election has an important bearing on Turkey's European hopes. "The election result will also affect Turkey's destiny" in its talks with the Europeans, he told AFP in picturesque Kyrenia on the island's north coast.
According to Aktar, however: "The negotiations with the European Union are already nearly dead." He believes Ankara has other fish to fry in Europe while both France and Germany oppose its joining the EU bloc. "We expect that the new Turkish Cypriot leadership will continue, in a climate of goodwill, the talks to reach a solution" in Cyprus, a Turkish diplomatic source told AFP.
Both Talat and Ankara supported a 2004 U.N. reunification plan for the island that was rejected by the Greek Cypriots. "I promise to intensify my efforts in the search of a solution," Talat told Turkey's NTV news of the Cyprus peace process. He also admitted that the U.N.-brokered talks had hit snags over property issues and future power sharing. "But we have still made progress, and we must continue," he said.
In public Eroğlu says the same thing, although he is accused by detractors of making a show of goodwill in order not to go against Ankara. "Eroğlu has to play the game — he has no other choice," said Sedat Laciner of the USAK think-tank in Ankara. "Turkey wants the talks to continue."
Eroğlu, who heads the right-wing National Unity Party, or UBP, which last April defeated the leftist Republican Turkish Party, or CTP, formerly headed by Talat, says the talks, currently on hold until after the vote, will go on. "We will be accused of intransigence if we walk away from the negotiating table," he said. "We will not do that."
If neither man emerges as outright victor on Sunday with more than 50 percent of the votes, a second round will be held a week later. Five other minor candidates also feature on the ballot paper. There are 164,072 registered voters out of a population of some 250,000 in Turkish Cyprus.
