Cyprus-Forum.com

[paliometoxo]

THE EMERGENCE of a third candidate in the north’s April 18 ‘presidential’ election yesterday looked set to threaten front runner Dervish Eroglu’s chances of victory.
Former Turkish Cypriot ‘foreign minister’ and staunch nationalist Tahsin Ertugruloglu, who is currently the National Unity Party’s (UBP’s) deputy for north Nicosia, announced his candidacy last night after returning to the island following a series of meetings with Turkish officials in Ankara. These meetings included one on Wednesday with Turkish President Abdullah Gul, who Ertugruloglu is thought to have sought the approval of before deciding to run for office.
The errant deputy’s candidacy will cause great annoyance to UBP supporters, the majority of whom are believed to be loyal to Eroglu. Furthermore, the appearance of fellow UBP member Ertugruloglu on ballot slips is far more likely to erode support for Eroglu than for left-wing opponent and incumbent Mehmet Ali Talat.
Whether Ankara favours Ertugruloglu’s candidacy was not entirely clear yesterday. Despite inviting him to Ankara for a meeting on Monday, the Turkish President did not actually get round to seeing him until Wednesday afternoon. Furthermore, it is widely assumed, especially in the diplomatic community, that the Turkish government wishes to see the moderate, pro-solution Talat remain in charge for the time being. Ankara will however be careful not to be seen as having favourites in the breakaway north.
Some however believe the emergence of a third candidate will have little effect on the eventual outcome of the election.
“I don’t believe Ertugruloglu will create a deep impact. It will only force a second round of voting,” head of the Cyprus Policy Centre at the Eastern Mediterranean University (EMU) in Famagusta Ahmet Sozen told the Cyprus Mail yesterday. Similar to the voting system in the south, a candidate has to receive more than 50 per cent in the first round to win outright. If none does, the two highest scoring candidates go head to head.
Although coming from the same party, Ertugruloglu is seen as more of a nationalistic hardliner than his elder opponent. According to Sozen, his support in this election will come from those who used to support former nationalist leader Rauf Denktash. Indeed, the Democrat Party (DP), which his son Serdar Denktash now leads, has offered Ertugruloglu its support in the upcoming election.
It is not immediately clear what Ertugruloglu stands to gain by running; most agree he is unlikely to gain more than third place on April 18. However analysts reckon his aim may simply be to reap revenge on Eroglu by scuppering his third attempt at becoming ‘president’ of the north. Ertugruloglu was widely reported as being “incensed” when Eroglu refused to hand him a ‘ministry’ on becoming ‘prime minister’ last April.
Sozen believes that through his candidacy Ertugruloglu is dicing with his future in the UBP and that his move will either win him leadership of the party, through Eroglu’s third failure to become ‘president’, or his expulsion. But expulsion would also come at a price for the UBP, as Ertugruloglu is one of 26 UBP deputies in the north’s ‘parliament’ of 50 deputies. If he goes, so does the UBP ‘government’.
How much support Ertugruloglu can garners among the north’s voters remains a total mystery as opinion polls so far have only included the names of Talat and Eroglu. According to one published on March 6, Eroglu will gain 53 per cent vote and Talat 47 per cent.

[Pax]

Ankara wants a settlement and the only possibility of delivering it is Talat. Therefore Eroglu's current poll lead has to be cut, dramatically. What better way for the nationalist anti-settlement vote in the north to lose than by splitting it ?

[YFred]

Ankara wants a settlement and the only possibility of delivering it is Talat. Therefore Eroglu's current poll lead has to be cut, dramatically. What better way for the nationalist anti-settlement vote in the north to lose than by splitting it ?

But where has the resident forum expert on foreign affairs gone today. He assured us that Ankara was in control in the TRNC who ever wins.
What is going on here. There is a conspiracy to confuse us all, what ever next, what?

[B25]

Does that mean that the TCs can now quit threatening us with Super-Gluy.

As I said before mickey mouse or donald duck makes no different all puppets to turkey who has now been validated as the invader occupier and out with the 'TRNC', who? Who is what is 'TRNC' never heard of it

[Oracle]

A mockery of a mockery of a mockery .... bring on more monkeys to mock!

... it doesn't make it any more a real election!

[only me]

Hello again Oracle. More London Crap on this posting as well I see.
You may well be critical of the North's Government, but at least the KKTC is not a Capitalist, Greedy, Credit ridded country ruled by a COMMUNIST for Gods sake. How weird is that.

[only me]

B25
Just proved what a race of people you really are.
can't discuss anything just abuse anybody who tries to tell you what you really know is true. To swear and curse are the actions of someone who is cornered . You now know your Politicians have been telling lies for many years.

[YFred]

Hello again Oracle. More London Crap on this posting as well I see.
You may well be critical of the North's Government, but at least the KKTC is not a Capitalist, Greedy, Credit ridded country ruled by a COMMUNIST for Gods sake. How weird is that.

No you are right there, it is just a corrupt, criminal, illegal, mafia run shit hole thats just right for little pricks like you who profess to tell us about our history.

Fuck Off you are an Arse hole.

So where is Kick's baby to explain what is going on?
Why has he changed his tune about who is in control?

Kickapoo where are you?

[cymart]

Crap up north and s... in the south!The only way this island will get out of the mess it is in is to get rid of the political establishment here which has been corrupt ever since it came into existence when the British left.The only way to do that is to change the system and bring in a federation which is being discussed now.....no wonder those with power here are so against the idea???

[Kikapu]

Hello again Oracle. More London Crap on this posting as well I see.
You may well be critical of the North's Government, but at least the KKTC is not a Capitalist, Greedy, Credit ridded country ruled by a COMMUNIST for Gods sake. How weird is that.

No you are right there, it is just a corrupt, criminal, illegal, mafia run shit hole thats just right for little pricks like you who profess to tell us about our history.

Fuck Off you are an Arse hole.

So where is Kick's baby to explain what is going on?
Why has he changed his tune about who is in control?

Kickapoo where are you?

What are you talking about, YFred.??

What tune are you talking about.??

You don't mean Turkey being in charge as to who gets elected in the north, do you.?

Lets see. Eroglu was predicted to win for the last few months, but now, Erdogan knows Turkey can't afford another Denktash type "ugly fascists" to be the face of the "trnc", so he is doing all he can to get Talat re-elected. Eroglu was used to give the illusion he was going to win, just to put some fear into Christofias, as if that, as soon as Eroglu is elected, to forget about getting any concessions from him where Talat was able to give. Basically "smoking mirror" politics.

After all, mother Turkey knows best, doesn't she, YFred, and who do you think most of the settlers and the TC Turkey loyalist are going to listen to, Erdogan or Eroglu.?

So, YFred. Who's in charge again.??