Kikapu wrote:YFred wrote:Tim Drayton wrote:YFred, are you suggesting that one fine day, Tahsin Ertuğruloğlu just woke up and of his own accord decided to stand as a candidate, thus effectively committing political suicide given that he has not suprisingly been thrown out of the UBP for standing against the party chairman? I find it impossible to interpret this move as anything but a manoeuvre by Ankara to split the right wing vote and let Talat in. The consensus opinion is that he only needs to take 10% of Eroğlu's vote to let Talat in. The fact that Ertuğruloğlu held meetings in Ankara with the Turkish president and prime minister prior to announcing his candidacy surely strengthen this suspicion.
You also missed my point Tim. I am not suggesting that at all. I agree with what you say, but what if Talat is not the winner in the first round, then who would UBP supporters vote for in a two horse race?
But my real question to Kicks which he deliberately is ignoring is if Ankara has so much control over whoever is in power in the north, why take so much trouble to be seen to be interfering with the elections in the north. The idea of window dressing I am afraid does not wash?
What if Ertuğruloğlu wins? will he not have the same policies as Eroglu?
Here is the game plan, YFred. It will be much like what happened in Afghanistan with Karzai and Abdullah.
1. Election takes place
2. Talat, Eroglu and Ertuğruloğlu are top three (minimum)
3. If Talat gets the 51%, game's over.
4. If Talat and Ertuğruloğlu go to 2nd round, then at that point, Ertuğruloğlu can drop out of the race due to "family matters" and Talat gets re-elected.
5. If it's Talat and Eroglu in the 2nd round, Turkey will put it's weight behind Talat.
6. Talat wins what come may.!
7. Check-Mate & Game.!
I am glad you used that example because it will be very beneficial to George in Canada to appreciate who is in charge in Cyprus as it is the same plan they implemented over there too.
As to the elections in the north , I just hope you are right and Talat wins. Then when you visit London next I will do a slap up meal for you and I promise to not but one bit of that cyanide poison into it that Bill gave me.