Cyprus-Forum.com

[Kikapu]

I hope to god you are right, but Talat is unlikely to win 51% in the first count, the chances are it will go to a second vote and it will be between the two, so all this work would have been for nothing except if Eroglu comes third. Now what's the chance of that happening?
Lets face it Muhtar X had a chance to go down in history as the person who solved the cyprus problem and snuffe it.

How so.???

As for Talat not winning the 51% 1st round, is irrelevant. Winning on the 2nd round will only make Turkey look as if they had not interfered with the elections.!

Because he took 14 months discussing governence and came up with something Denktash suggested years ago. Now is that stupid or stupid.
So are you saying that in the run off Talat will be able to win the second vote even if the public opinion in the north remains so firmly for Eroglu?

So what are the details of their agreements. Since when did the negotiations finish.?? Besides, you seem to forget, that Talat is not negotiating this settlement talks with Christofias, Turkey is.!

If Turkey wants Talat to win, Talat will win no matter which round it is. Don't forget the Turkish saying, "Parayin veren, düdügü çalar".....NO.?

[YFred]

I hope to god you are right, but Talat is unlikely to win 51% in the first count, the chances are it will go to a second vote and it will be between the two, so all this work would have been for nothing except if Eroglu comes third. Now what's the chance of that happening?
Lets face it Muhtar X had a chance to go down in history as the person who solved the cyprus problem and snuffe it.

How so.???

As for Talat not winning the 51% 1st round, is irrelevant. Winning on the 2nd round will only make Turkey look as if they had not interfered with the elections.!

Because he took 14 months discussing governence and came up with something Denktash suggested years ago. Now is that stupid or stupid.
So are you saying that in the run off Talat will be able to win the second vote even if the public opinion in the north remains so firmly for Eroglu?

So what are the details of their agreements. Since when did the negotiations finish.?? Besides, you seem to forget, that Talat is not negotiating this settlement talks with Christofias, Turkey is.!

If Turkey wants Talat to win, Talat will win no matter which round it is. Don't forget the Turkish saying, "Parayin veren, düdügü çalar".....NO.?

This is where your argument falls appart. If that is the case, why bother to effect the election at all. Al they have to do is stop paying and Eroglu will have to do what he is told. Or is he?

[Kikapu]

I hope to god you are right, but Talat is unlikely to win 51% in the first count, the chances are it will go to a second vote and it will be between the two, so all this work would have been for nothing except if Eroglu comes third. Now what's the chance of that happening?
Lets face it Muhtar X had a chance to go down in history as the person who solved the cyprus problem and snuffe it.

How so.???

As for Talat not winning the 51% 1st round, is irrelevant. Winning on the 2nd round will only make Turkey look as if they had not interfered with the elections.!

Because he took 14 months discussing governence and came up with something Denktash suggested years ago. Now is that stupid or stupid.
So are you saying that in the run off Talat will be able to win the second vote even if the public opinion in the north remains so firmly for Eroglu?

So what are the details of their agreements. Since when did the negotiations finish.?? Besides, you seem to forget, that Talat is not negotiating this settlement talks with Christofias, Turkey is.!

If Turkey wants Talat to win, Talat will win no matter which round it is. Don't forget the Turkish saying, "Parayin veren, düdügü çalar".....NO.?

This is where your argument falls appart. If that is the case, why bother to effect the election at all. Al they have to do is stop paying and Eroglu will have to do what he is told. Or is he?

Don't you get it, YFred, it has nothing to do with who is elected, but has everything to do with public image that Turkey wants the world to see, specially after Erdogan's recent statements. Erdogan cannot say to the GCs and the world that he wants to put the past behind us so that we can move forward, and by the way, trust me, and then put a TMT Facists as the face of the "trnc", can he.? So, whether the average TCs or settlers will agree with Erdogan or not is totally irrelevant, because Turkey has control over the north politically and financially. The so called election is just a "window dressing" for the outsiders, that's all.!

[YFred]

I hope to god you are right, but Talat is unlikely to win 51% in the first count, the chances are it will go to a second vote and it will be between the two, so all this work would have been for nothing except if Eroglu comes third. Now what's the chance of that happening?
Lets face it Muhtar X had a chance to go down in history as the person who solved the cyprus problem and snuffe it.

How so.???

As for Talat not winning the 51% 1st round, is irrelevant. Winning on the 2nd round will only make Turkey look as if they had not interfered with the elections.!

Because he took 14 months discussing governence and came up with something Denktash suggested years ago. Now is that stupid or stupid.
So are you saying that in the run off Talat will be able to win the second vote even if the public opinion in the north remains so firmly for Eroglu?

So what are the details of their agreements. Since when did the negotiations finish.?? Besides, you seem to forget, that Talat is not negotiating this settlement talks with Christofias, Turkey is.!

If Turkey wants Talat to win, Talat will win no matter which round it is. Don't forget the Turkish saying, "Parayin veren, düdügü çalar".....NO.?

This is where your argument falls appart. If that is the case, why bother to effect the election at all. Al they have to do is stop paying and Eroglu will have to do what he is told. Or is he?

Don't you get it, YFred, it has nothing to do with who is elected, but has everything to do with public image that Turkey wants the world to see, specially after Erdogan's recent statements. Erdogan cannot say to the GCs and the world that he wants to put the past behind us so that we can move forward, and by the way, trust me, and then put a TMT Facists as the face of the "trnc", can he.? So, whether the average TCs or settlers will agree with Erdogan or not is totally irrelevant, because Turkey has control over the north politically and financially. The so called election is just a "window dressing" for the outsiders, that's all.!

You are not making sense at all here. Window dressing you say? since when have the turkallos been so clever?
I really don't think you appreciate the realities on the ground. If Eroglu gets in, he can delay the negotiations as long as he likes and Erdogan can do sod all about it. What you fail to realise is that the Turkish power in the TRNC is like a having a neuclear weapon, looks very good on paper but can never be used, without one blowing themselves self up. It's a bit like Israil having Neuclear weapons. Now, who can they use it against without blowing themselves up with it. Totally useless and very expensive bit of weaponary, don't you think.

[Kikapu]

I hope to god you are right, but Talat is unlikely to win 51% in the first count, the chances are it will go to a second vote and it will be between the two, so all this work would have been for nothing except if Eroglu comes third. Now what's the chance of that happening?
Lets face it Muhtar X had a chance to go down in history as the person who solved the cyprus problem and snuffe it.

How so.???

As for Talat not winning the 51% 1st round, is irrelevant. Winning on the 2nd round will only make Turkey look as if they had not interfered with the elections.!

Because he took 14 months discussing governence and came up with something Denktash suggested years ago. Now is that stupid or stupid.
So are you saying that in the run off Talat will be able to win the second vote even if the public opinion in the north remains so firmly for Eroglu?

So what are the details of their agreements. Since when did the negotiations finish.?? Besides, you seem to forget, that Talat is not negotiating this settlement talks with Christofias, Turkey is.!

If Turkey wants Talat to win, Talat will win no matter which round it is. Don't forget the Turkish saying, "Parayin veren, düdügü çalar".....NO.?

This is where your argument falls appart. If that is the case, why bother to effect the election at all. Al they have to do is stop paying and Eroglu will have to do what he is told. Or is he?

Don't you get it, YFred, it has nothing to do with who is elected, but has everything to do with public image that Turkey wants the world to see, specially after Erdogan's recent statements. Erdogan cannot say to the GCs and the world that he wants to put the past behind us so that we can move forward, and by the way, trust me, and then put a TMT Facists as the face of the "trnc", can he.? So, whether the average TCs or settlers will agree with Erdogan or not is totally irrelevant, because Turkey has control over the north politically and financially. The so called election is just a "window dressing" for the outsiders, that's all.!

You are not making sense at all here. Window dressing you say? since when have the turkallos been so clever?
I really don't think you appreciate the realities on the ground. If Eroglu gets in, he can delay the negotiations as long as he likes and Erdogan can do sod all about it. What you fail to realise is that the Turkish power in the TRNC is like a having a neuclear weapon, looks very good on paper but can never be used, without one blowing themselves self up. It's a bit like Israil having Neuclear weapons. Now, who can they use it against without blowing themselves up with it. Totally useless and very expensive bit of weaponary, don't you think.

Come back after the elections for me to apologise you if Eroglu is elected. You can do the same to me when Talat is elected, deal.?

Turkey gets what Turkey wants in the north. To pretend otherwise, is being very foolish.!

[Tim Drayton]

YFred, are you suggesting that one fine day, Tahsin Ertuğruloğlu just woke up and of his own accord decided to stand as a candidate, thus effectively committing political suicide given that he has not suprisingly been thrown out of the UBP for standing against the party chairman? I find it impossible to interpret this move as anything but a manoeuvre by Ankara to split the right wing vote and let Talat in. The consensus opinion is that he only needs to take 10% of Eroğlu's vote to let Talat in. The fact that Ertuğruloğlu held meetings in Ankara with the Turkish president and prime minister prior to announcing his candidacy surely strengthen this suspicion.

[YFred]

YFred, are you suggesting that one fine day, Tahsin Ertuğruloğlu just woke up and of his own accord decided to stand as a candidate, thus effectively committing political suicide given that he has not suprisingly been thrown out of the UBP for standing against the party chairman? I find it impossible to interpret this move as anything but a manoeuvre by Ankara to split the right wing vote and let Talat in. The consensus opinion is that he only needs to take 10% of Eroğlu's vote to let Talat in. The fact that Ertuğruloğlu held meetings in Ankara with the Turkish president and prime minister prior to announcing his candidacy surely strengthen this suspicion.

You also missed my point Tim. I am not suggesting that at all. I agree with what you say, but what if Talat is not the winner in the first round, then who would UBP supporters vote for in a two horse race?
But my real question to Kicks which he deliberately is ignoring is if Ankara has so much control over whoever is in power in the north, why take so much trouble to be seen to be interfering with the elections in the north. The idea of window dressing I am afraid does not wash?
What if Ertuğruloğlu wins? will he not have the same policies as Eroglu?

[Tim Drayton]

YFred, are you suggesting that one fine day, Tahsin Ertuğruloğlu just woke up and of his own accord decided to stand as a candidate, thus effectively committing political suicide given that he has not suprisingly been thrown out of the UBP for standing against the party chairman? I find it impossible to interpret this move as anything but a manoeuvre by Ankara to split the right wing vote and let Talat in. The consensus opinion is that he only needs to take 10% of Eroğlu's vote to let Talat in. The fact that Ertuğruloğlu held meetings in Ankara with the Turkish president and prime minister prior to announcing his candidacy surely strengthen this suspicion.

You also missed my point Tim. I am not suggesting that at all. I agree with what you say, but what if Talat is not the winner in the first round, then who would UBP supporters vote for in a two horse race?
But my real question to Kicks which he deliberately is ignoring is if Ankara has so much control over whoever is in power in the north, why take so much trouble to be seen to be interfering with the elections in the north. The idea of window dressing I am afraid does not wash?

With it being a two stage election, the vote splitting factor carries less weight, I agree. It appears that the run-off is going to be either between Talat-Eroğlu or Talat-Ertuğruloğlu. Is it possible that for reasons of factionalism, some UBP supporters would vote for Talat to spite the other faction within the party? If the run off is with Ertuğruloğlu, this could well happen as he is the one who has rocked the boat and stood against the leader. Time will tell.

[YFred]

YFred, are you suggesting that one fine day, Tahsin Ertuğruloğlu just woke up and of his own accord decided to stand as a candidate, thus effectively committing political suicide given that he has not suprisingly been thrown out of the UBP for standing against the party chairman? I find it impossible to interpret this move as anything but a manoeuvre by Ankara to split the right wing vote and let Talat in. The consensus opinion is that he only needs to take 10% of Eroğlu's vote to let Talat in. The fact that Ertuğruloğlu held meetings in Ankara with the Turkish president and prime minister prior to announcing his candidacy surely strengthen this suspicion.

You also missed my point Tim. I am not suggesting that at all. I agree with what you say, but what if Talat is not the winner in the first round, then who would UBP supporters vote for in a two horse race?
But my real question to Kicks which he deliberately is ignoring is if Ankara has so much control over whoever is in power in the north, why take so much trouble to be seen to be interfering with the elections in the north. The idea of window dressing I am afraid does not wash?

With it being a two stage election, the vote splitting factor carries less weight, I agree. It appears that the run-off is going to be either between Talat-Eroğlu or Talat-Ertuğruloğlu. Is it possible that for reasons of factionalism, some UBP supporters would vote for Talat to spite the other faction within the party? If the run off is with Ertuğruloğlu, this could well happen as he is the one who has rocked the boat and stood against the leader. Time will tell.

Nothing wouldgive me more pleasure than Talat winning a second Term, but I have a feeling the TCs have given up on the EU and the peace process and no longer care. I hope I am wrong, but as you say time will tell

[Kikapu]

YFred, are you suggesting that one fine day, Tahsin Ertuğruloğlu just woke up and of his own accord decided to stand as a candidate, thus effectively committing political suicide given that he has not suprisingly been thrown out of the UBP for standing against the party chairman? I find it impossible to interpret this move as anything but a manoeuvre by Ankara to split the right wing vote and let Talat in. The consensus opinion is that he only needs to take 10% of Eroğlu's vote to let Talat in. The fact that Ertuğruloğlu held meetings in Ankara with the Turkish president and prime minister prior to announcing his candidacy surely strengthen this suspicion.

You also missed my point Tim. I am not suggesting that at all. I agree with what you say, but what if Talat is not the winner in the first round, then who would UBP supporters vote for in a two horse race?
But my real question to Kicks which he deliberately is ignoring is if Ankara has so much control over whoever is in power in the north, why take so much trouble to be seen to be interfering with the elections in the north. The idea of window dressing I am afraid does not wash?
What if Ertuğruloğlu wins? will he not have the same policies as Eroglu?

Here is the game plan, YFred. It will be much like what happened in Afghanistan with Karzai and Abdullah.

1. Election takes place

2. Talat, Eroglu and Ertuğruloğlu are top three (minimum)

3. If Talat gets the 51%, game's over.

4. If Talat and Ertuğruloğlu go to 2nd round, then at that point, Ertuğruloğlu can drop out of the race due to "family matters" and Talat gets re-elected.

5. If it's Talat and Eroglu in the 2nd round, Turkey will put it's weight behind Talat.

6. Talat wins what come may.!

7. Check-Mate & Game.!