Turkey will never become an EU member as long as it doesn't recognise the GC-ROC,
while the Cyp problem will never be solved as long as the EU recognise the GC-ROC as
the only administration on the entire island. It's 50/50. The solution is in the hands of the UN,
and Turkey is very patient - But the EU isn't. Now we know the fine, practical, lines of a
Cyprus settlement, what do you think will happen?
Here's my suggestion:
Turkey will never budge from its UN position on the Cyprus issue and will hold out until the
Greek Cypriots eventually sign a UN - United Republic of Cyprus deal with Two Constituent
States and all the rest. However, I also believe that Turkey will never become an EU member
State unless it agrees to the Ankara Protocol which the Greek Cypriots are desperately
Wishing for. I believe that that's a No-Go as the English would say, never in a million years.
Then, what now? Well, as we know how much Turkey is gaining economic and political
Advantage over the "Greek" world, particularly poor Greece, and how much the EU really
Doesn't care about the type of solution is sought for Cyprus, I would put it past them to do
"A Kosovo" on the Greek Cypriots. It's very transparent to say the least. Mr Christofias'
Time wasting tactics wishing for Turkey to be squeezed by the EU at some point in the future
When nearing its EU application for a Greek Cypriot style unification is simply childs play.
Turkey will wait another thousand years if it has to to get the Cyprus solution via the UN it
Wishes and there's nothing the EU can do about it, UNLESS, MIND YOU they get serious with
Turkey's EU application, but I doubt that very much.
So, what may happen? I believe that "Northern Cyprus" will eventually gain some kind of
"Taiwan" formula, partial recognition, or Turkey will hang up its gloves of a future with the
EU and gain recognition for the TRNC from all Non-EU nations first. Then, both the TRNC and
Turkey will apply as new members of the EU some time in 2025. By then, Northern Cyprus
Will have a population of about 2million Turks and all the blame will be place on Greek
Cypriot shoulders!
Or, the other alternative is for the Greek Cypriots to conceed and go down the road of a
Negotiated Partition of two Greek/Turkish Cypriot state, obviously reducing and renaming
The current TRNC - probably a better chose for the Greek Cypriots, kind of like the lesser
Of two evils for them.
Unfortunately for the Greek Cypriots, when it comes to the Cyprus problem, the United
Nations stands on a firmer court than under an EU paddling pool with virtual vetos and
Empty threats with no guarantees - know what I mean!!