Cyprus could become another Czechoslovakia, splitting in to two separate states unless Britain and its international partners move to prevent the collapse of crucial reunification talks, officials in Turkish northern Cyprus have warned.
With the negotiations, which began in 2008, resuming tomorrow, fears are growing that dialogue between the Turkish Cypriot leader, Mehmet Talat, and Demetris Christofias, the Greek Cypriot leader, is on the brink of failure.
Turkish Cypriots are pessimistic about talks, with up to 85% believing a reunification deal is beyond reach, a recent poll revealed.
"I don't understand why Britain does not do more. Britain [the former colonial power] knows very well what happened here," Huseyin Ozgurgun, the foreign minister of the self-styled Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, said.
"Britain is a very strong country. It has a lot of influence."
Cyprus has been divided along ethnic and religious lines since 1974, when Turkish troops intervened following a Greek-inspired coup and widespread violence.
Britain, the US, Turkey and the EU back a reunification solution similar to the plan presented in 2004 by the then UN secretary general, Kofi Annan.
However, attempts to overcome security, property, governance and territorial issues have failed repeatedly.
Northern Cyprus is shunned internationally – only Turkey affords it legal recognition – while the Greek Cypriot-led Republic of Cyprus is a UN member and was admitted to the EU as the legal government of the whole island as 2004.
The pro-reunification Talat, who is widely expected to lose April's presidential election to his hardline nationalist prime minister, Dervis Eroglu, recently warned that time for the talks was running out.
They could be effectively suspended as early as next week when campaigning begins in the north of Cyprus.
Christofias, who also favours reunification, is under heavy pressure from opposition politicians, the Cypriot National Guard and Archbishop Chrysostomos II, leader of the Greek Orthodox church in Cyprus, not to give ground.
"Turkey is trying to keep the talks on track but its actions will be influenced by European attitudes to its EU membership bid," Ahmet Sozen, a political analyst at the Cyprus Policy Centre, based in northern Cyprus, said.
"Sooner or later, Turkey may say to Eroglu: 'Go on, show your real face.' Eroglu's real face is separation, like in Czechoslovakia."
Ozdil Nami, Talat's special representative in the UN-brokered talks, said: "Eroglu wants a two-state solution. He is talking about a velvet revolution."
He warned such an approach could wreck the negotiations, adding: "There is a general lack of understanding in Europe over Cyprus.
"Britain has an important responsibility to enlighten other EU states. We are expecting more."
The UK has stepped up its involvement, with Gordon Brown telephoning Talat, Christofias and the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to voice his support for the negotiations last week.
Britain is hoping an agreement on power-sharing, governance and EU issues this week could provide a launchpad for progress in other areas.
Brown held face to face talks with Talat in London last month – a move condemned by Greek Cypriots – a month after meeting Christofias.
The EU is also piling on pressure, with a visit to Nicosia by its new president, Herman van Rompuy, last week. If the talks make progress, the UN secretary-general, Ban Ki-moon, could visit the island next month.
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