by Get Real! » Mon Jan 11, 2010 12:06 am
One of the key characteristics of the “new world order” (read contemporary military aggression) is a tendency to attack those that are least likely to hurt you back!
We see this with the US attacking Iraq, Afghanistan, and Yemen, and we also saw this with Israel attacking the Palestinians last year and Lebanon in 2006.
In the case of Lebanon, Israel made a grave miscalculation though and ended up losing the bout to a rejuvenated Lebanese force (Hezbollah) that was unlike anything they had ever confronted before, so the chances of Israel attacking the Lebanon again after that awful experience has significantly decreased and hence the much softer target was selected last year!
The bottom line is that bully countries such as the US, UK, and Israel will only attack if they feel they can get away with it, and would never lift a finger if they felt they would not! Examples of such unlikely confrontations are the US’s reluctance to attack countries such as Russia, N.Korea, Iran, Brazil, with whom they’ve had the most “serious” of squabbles.
By the same token, Israel is reluctant to engage with Syria or Egypt because they pose a much more serious threat than they are prepared to deal with… which of course brings us to the question of Israel attacking Iran!
Put simply, Israel doesn’t have the capability of launching sorties over Iranian territory because she is too far away from Iran and she does not possess any aircraft carriers to get any closer so that option is out of the question.
The other option would be for Israeli jets to be given a free ride and all necessary support on American aircraft carriers but that of course would mean a joint attack on Iran, making the decision for such an operation extremely complicated. It’s difficult enough getting such an attack approved by one government let alone by two!
Finally, Israel could launch mid range missiles against Iran but with such a huge territory to cover that Iran possesses, it would be foolish to assume that they can accomplish much (some facilities also being underground) and that there won’t be any repercussions. After all, Iran often reminds Israel that she is a “one bomb country” and they’re not wrong!
Ballistic Iranian missiles of a sizeable payload striking huge, easy, and sensitive targets such as Israel’s Dimona dam would be catastrophic for Israel and she knows that, so to close off this argument I do NOT believe that Israel will attack Iran now or in the near future as the repercussions would be too severe for her.