Cyprus-Forum.com

[Malapapa]

Option 1: Secession/recognition of ‘TRNC’
(a) Would breach UN resolutions
(b) Could not be supported by UK:
(i) under guarantor obligations
(ii) in fear of jeopardising UK bases
(c) Could not be supported by USA due to (b)(ii) above
(d) Would not be supported by Russia, an Orthodox country and traditional friend of Cyprus
(e) Would not be supported by China in fear of creating precedent for Taiwan, Tibet
(f) Would of course never be supported by Cyprus
(g) Would not be supported by EU
(i) due to most of the above
(ii) because Cyprus, Greece are members
(iii) because all Cypriot territory is in EU – only EU law is suspended in north
(h) Claims of rightful property owners would persist, potentially sinking Turkey/’TRNC’

Option 2: Status quo continues
(a) Would jeopardise Turkey’s EU aspirations and potentially secular traditions
(b) Would not be acceptable to Cyprus
(c) Given (a) and (b), ‘TRNC’ could never achieve EU integration/ lifting of ‘isolation’/prosperity
(d) Claims of rightful property owners would persist, potentially sinking Turkey/’TRNC’

Option 3: deal unacceptable to Cyprus
(a) After Annan Plan failure, international community/EU would not force Cyprus or Cypriots to accept a deal which
(i) compromised Cyprus’s integrity, functionality or security as a state
(ii) was not in the best interests of Cypriots as a whole
(iii) breached UN resolutions
(iv) breached EU rights and freedoms
(b) Cyprus would of course never agree to such a deal
(c) So we would be back to 2 above, which is not an option

The obvious conclusion to anyone with any sense is for Turkey/’TRNC’ to come forward with a deal that is acceptable to Cyprus, ie. one which:

• does not compromise Cyprus’s integrity, functionality and security as a state
• is in the best interests of Cypriots as a whole
• is in line with UN resolutions and EU rights and freedoms

Threats or harking back to 63 serve no purpose and are counter-productive.

Free Cyprus can afford to wait and has no option but to wait.

Turkey/’TRNC’ cannot.

[runaway]

Turkey/’TRNC’ cannot.

says who? EU support of public is all time low. Government made it clear KKTC is more important than membership talks. Status quo can go on another 135 years.

[Kikapu]

Turkey/’TRNC’ cannot.

says who? EU support of public is all time low. Government made it clear KKTC is more important than membership talks. Status quo can go on another 135 years.

That's a nice grandstanding when Turkey has nothing to lose at this point, because Turkey needs to reform before she can even become a EU member. Cyprus is the last obstacle in her way, but if Turkey were to be serious about becoming a EU member and that the EU gave them the green light, then lets see Turkey make the same statement. I doubt it very much. Why would Turkey go through all the reform changes in Turkey to become a EU member if they are going to say in the end, "err, sorry EU, we rather keep northern part of Cyprus than become a full member".! Not likely.!

[Malapapa]

Turkey/’TRNC’ cannot.

says who? EU support of public is all time low. Government made it clear KKTC is more important than membership talks. Status quo can go on another 135 years.

Option 2: Status quo continues
(a) Would jeopardise Turkey’s EU aspirations and potentially secular traditions
(b) Would not be acceptable to Cyprus
(c) Given (a) and (b), ‘TRNC’ could never achieve EU integration/ lifting of ‘isolation’/prosperity
(d) Claims of rightful property owners would persist, potentially sinking Turkey/’TRNC’

[runaway]

Turkey/’TRNC’ cannot.

says who? EU support of public is all time low. Government made it clear KKTC is more important than membership talks. Status quo can go on another 135 years.

Option 2: Status quo continues
(a) Would jeopardise Turkey’s EU aspirations and potentially secular traditions
(b) Would not be acceptable to Cyprus
(c) Given (a) and (b), ‘TRNC’ could never achieve EU integration/ lifting of ‘isolation’/prosperity
(d) Claims of rightful property owners would persist, potentially sinking Turkey/’TRNC’

a.answered
b.would not be acceptable to south cyprus. Who cares what south cyprus accepts?
c. same as a.

[Malapapa]

Turkey/’TRNC’ cannot.

says who? EU support of public is all time low. Government made it clear KKTC is more important than membership talks. Status quo can go on another 135 years.

Option 2: Status quo continues
(a) Would jeopardise Turkey’s EU aspirations and potentially secular traditions
(b) Would not be acceptable to Cyprus
(c) Given (a) and (b), ‘TRNC’ could never achieve EU integration/ lifting of ‘isolation’/prosperity
(d) Claims of rightful property owners would persist, potentially sinking Turkey/’TRNC’

a.answered
b.would not be acceptable to south cyprus. Who cares what south cyprus accepts?

The following care what the Republic of Cyprus accepts:
(a) UK:
(i) under guarantor obligations
(ii) in fear of jeopardising UK bases
(b) USA due to (a)(ii) above
(c) Russia, an Orthodox country and traditional friend of Cyprus
(d) China in fear of creating precedent for Taiwan, Tibet
(e) EU
(i) due to most of the above
(ii) because Cyprus, Greece are members
(iii) because all Cypriot territory is in EU – only EU law is suspended in north

c. same as a.

How is c. the same as a.?

[DT.]

Turkey/’TRNC’ cannot.

says who? EU support of public is all time low. Government made it clear KKTC is more important than membership talks. Status quo can go on another 135 years.

Option 2: Status quo continues
(a) Would jeopardise Turkey’s EU aspirations and potentially secular traditions
(b) Would not be acceptable to Cyprus
(c) Given (a) and (b), ‘TRNC’ could never achieve EU integration/ lifting of ‘isolation’/prosperity
(d) Claims of rightful property owners would persist, potentially sinking Turkey/’TRNC’

a.answered
b.would not be acceptable to south cyprus. Who cares what south cyprus accepts?
c. same as a.

in 2012 when we have the EU Presidency and are formulating the agenda for the EU we might decide to invite one of your ministers over to plead Turkey's case.

[Malapapa]

And what about d. ?

[Acikgoz]

MP I agree Option 2 is going to be the situation. I'd dispute some of the material but sticking to the essence of the post, I would have defined option 3 as: Federal solution based on one person one vote, RoC govt incorporates TRNC as minority.

With those options, neither 1 nor 3 have a snowball's chance on earth post-global warming.
TRNC won't remain isolated but won't achieve universal recognition. The harder RoC pushes, the further the goal of a unified Cyprus will become.
Political pressure will remain on TRNC and Turkey. RoC will realise EU doesn't have their back and would willingly sacrifice Turkish economy/political relationships.
The smart play given the current state of mind on both sides are TRNC and RoC will find opportunities to make the Status Quo work better for each other.

Ps. Before comments about all is hokey dokey in South, micro economics 1st year you learn that 2 countries will find benefits in trading even if one country is more efficient at producing all products.

[Malapapa]

MP I agree Option 2 is going to be the situation. I'd dispute some of the material but sticking to the essence of the post, I would have defined option 3 as: Federal solution based on one person one vote, RoC govt incorporates TRNC as minority.

Please expand. How can this happen?

With those options, neither 1 nor 3 have a snowball's chance on earth post-global warming.

Indeed.

TRNC won't remain isolated but won't achieve universal recognition. The harder RoC pushes, the further the goal of a unified Cyprus will become.
Political pressure will remain on TRNC and Turkey. RoC will realise EU doesn't have their back and would willingly sacrifice Turkish economy/political relationships.
The smart play given the current state of mind on both sides are TRNC and RoC will find opportunities to make the Status Quo work better for each other.

Again. Please expand on this.