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Analysis of Turkey/'TRNC' options

How can we solve it? (keep it civilized)

Postby Hermes » Thu Jan 07, 2010 7:01 am

Malapapa wrote:
The obvious conclusion remains for Turkey/’TRNC’ to propose an acceptable deal, ie. one which:

• does not compromise Cyprus’s integrity, functionality and security as a state
• is in the best interests of Cypriots as a whole
• is in line with UN resolutions and EU rights and freedoms.


This is both rational and in the interests of all concerned. But unfortunately the Turkish government isn't rational. Since the failure of the Annan Plan, Turkey has been in limbo with regards to Cyprus, somehow thinking the Greek Cypriots could be pressured into accepting a solution on Turkish terms. This clearly isn't going to happen. Especially as Cyprus now holds the key to Turkey's EU aspirations. What's clear is that Cyprus isn't going away and that the "TRNC" is finished - if it ever really existed. Whether Turkey can accept these two facts and find a way to come to terms with reality, we shall see. There is no "plan B" for Turkey and the "TRNC" though. Nothing Turkey can do to escape the reality of its own obligations.
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Postby Nikitas » Sun Jan 10, 2010 3:04 pm

Do not forget that there are options for the GC side too, and the major Turkish headache is how to rule out their biggest nightmare scenario: the union of Cyprus with Greece, which would lead to double union, an outcome that Turkey has fought tooth and nail to prevent. It sounds as unrealistic as secession, but it is there and it can be done more easily than any secession.

From the EU's point of view union of Cyprus with Greece would cure a headache, and diminish the number of member states, which means less expense, less hassle.
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Postby Expatkiwi » Tue Jan 12, 2010 10:38 pm

Turkey starts to love its neighbours

The rapprochement policies of Ahmet Davutoglu are making a splash in the region, though Israel relations remain prickly

Simon Tisdall guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 12 January 2010 20.00 GMT

Ahmet Davutoglu has made quite a splash since his appointment last year as Turkey's foreign minister. Formerly chief foreign policy adviser to prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the dapper professor dubbed the "Turkish Kissinger" has energetically pursued the ruling AKP party's trademark policy of "zero problems with neighbours", a policy he first articulated in a 2001 book, Strategic Depth.

Given the torrid history of Ottoman involvement in the Balkans, southern Caucasus and the Arab lands, good-neighbourly relations are not a given for modern Turkey. But in the past year, Davutoglu has led a drive to strengthen ties to Iraq's new government, mend fences with Syria (with which Turkey nearly went to war ten years ago), and forge an as yet incomplete rapprochement with Armenia, another ancient foe.

Behind this drive lies the belief that Turkey, nearly a century after the Ottoman empire imploded, is destined once again to become a regional power with global influence. For Davutoglu, this ambition entails a "comprehensive" approach embracing enhanced economic, cultural and social ties as well as political and security relations. Hence Turkey's multiplying regional trade and energy deals, not least with Russia, and its lifting of visa requirements for citizens of Syria, Lebanon, Romania and several other countries.

Not everyone wants to be friends. Interviewed in London yesterday ahead of a meeting with foreign secretary David Miliband, Davutoglu spoke of three complex challenges where progress in 2010 remains problematic. The first is Cyprus, where long-running, UN-brokered talks on reunification are inching towards some sort of denouement. Analysts suggest that if a deal is not done by April, when presidential elections are due in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, all bets are off.

"We have reached an historic moment in the negotiations. That's one reason for coming to London now," Davutoglu said, noting Britain's role as a guarantor of any settlement. The Turkish Cypriot side had introduced a promising new package last week, he said, including a so-called "cross voting" scheme that would give the two communities a quota in each other's elections.

Although the initial Greek Cypriot reaction was to reject the package, Davutoglu insisted that was not the end of the matter. "We know first of all the Greek Cypriots always say 'No!' Then they say 'No-o-o'. Then they say 'No-maybe' ... I am optimistic. We need an intensified international effort by the EU, by the UN, by both sides, and by Greece and Turkey and Britain as guarantors, like we had in 2004." He had personally contacted US secretary of state Hillary Clinton and the UN secretary-general to generate momentum for a deal, he said. Meanwhile, the Turkish and Greek Cypriot presidents had embarked on six day-long negotiating sessions to try and find a way through.

Turning to Iran, a particular British preoccupation, Davutoglu said his advice to Miliband, if asked, would be to eschew more public name-calling and pursue discreet negotiations on the nuclear issue and other matters of concern. He said Turkey was at pains to maintain a friendly relationship with its Persian neighbour.

"The situation in Iran is not good, is not compatible with our vision," Davutoglu said. "We don't want nuclear proliferation in the region, we don't want nuclear weapons in Iran or Israel or anywhere. Second, every country has the right to pursue nuclear power for peaceful purposes. Third, we also don't want more sanctions [on Iran]. Sanctions hurt ordinary people and neighbouring countries.

"We don't forget the very bad experience in Iraq. We would advise intensified negotiations through diplomacy. An absence of mutual trust is the problem." If asked, Turkey would be happy to facilitate a constructive dialogue with Iran, he said.

Davutoglu reserved his sharpest words for Israel, with which Turkey, unusually, has enjoyed cordial relations in the past but with which Erdogan fell out noisily after last year's attack on Gaza. Verbal hostilities resumed this week after the Turkish prime minister called Israel a threat to peace and accused it of acting disproportionately. Israel hit back angrily, in effect telling Erdogan to mind his own business.

"When Israel follows a policy of peace, we have good relations," Davutoglu said. Before Gaza, Turkey had mediated indirect talks between Syria and Israel and made "remarkable" progress, he said. But the Israeli incursion had scuppered the talks. "That attack changed many things ... It created a very unstable situation in the region" that even Barack Obama had been unable to overcome. Since then, there had been further "provocations" such as additional Jewish settlement building in east Jerusalem.

"If Israel wants peace, they must learn that others have rights that must be respected," he said. Davutoglu pauses and smiles. But it's clear that when it comes to Israel's treatment of the Palestinians, there are limits to even his highly developed sense of good-neighbourliness
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