Cyprus-Forum.com

[Paphitis]

Construction in the south has collapsed.

No it hasn't.

Foreigners are just not buying property in the south any more.

Foreigners are nothing compared to the young newly married Cypriot couples looking for a first home.

How badly does the south need Varosha now, and would they be prepared to allow free trade to the north for it?

Unlike the illegal, morally and financially corrupt “TRNC”, the RoC doesn’t rely on just one or two industries to make 25b p/annum!

Antonis Loizou reproduced some quite scary figures recently in his regular column about the property market in the Cyprus Weekly showing that, for example, property sales this year in Pahos are down by about 2/3 and in Limassol by 1/2 compared to last year, and that sales to foreigners have tanked. In recent years property sales to foreigners have picked up the slack left by the drop in tourism, so I think this is a cause for concern.

First of all, it’s not in ANY country’s interest to sell off its land/properties to foreigners, so if such sales have dropped then it’s a BLESSING not a curse!

Second, during 2007 and 2008, construction experienced a unprecedented surge to the point where buying or building a home became an impossibility for the middle class even! So, if construction has now dropped by 20-30% even, it simply means that things such as price (laws of demand & supply) have gone back to normal as they should… if homes are to remain affordable for the average couple/family!

Finally, when a government announces a decreased growth rate it doesn’t mean that the country is now bankrupt and that everyone should run, but that it has made less profit than it was expecting to compared to either last year or whatever else, so there’s no need to panic because whether Cyprus makes 25b or 23.6b for the year doesn’t really mater that much!

Great news for Paphitis.....

Methinks it is nearly time to strike, because this foreigner is in the market.

[BOF]

Construction in the south has collapsed.

No it hasn't.

Foreigners are just not buying property in the south any more.

How badly does the south need Varosha now, and would they be prepared to allow free trade to the north for it?

Unlike the illegal, morally and financially corrupt “TRNC”, the RoC doesn’t rely on just one or two industries to make 25b p/annum!

Antonis Loizou reproduced some quite scary figures recently in his regular column about the property market in the Cyprus Weekly showing that, for example, property sales this year in Pahos are down by about 2/3 and in Limassol by 1/2 compared to last year, and that sales to foreigners have tanked. In recent years property sales to foreigners have picked up the slack left by the drop in tourism, so I think this is a cause for concern.

First of all, it’s not in ANY country’s interest to sell off its land/properties to foreigners, so if such sales have dropped then it’s a BLESSING not a curse!

Second, during 2007 and 2008, construction experienced a unprecedented surge to the point where buying or building a home became an impossibility for the middle class even! So, if construction has now dropped by 20-30% even, it simply means that things such as price (laws of demand & supply) have gone back to normal as they should… if homes are to remain affordable for the average couple/family!

Finally, when a government announces a decreased growth rate it doesn’t mean that the country is now bankrupt and that everyone should run, but that it has made less profit than it was expecting to compared to either last year or whatever else, so there’s no need to panic because whether Cyprus makes 25b or 23.6b for the year doesn’t really mater that much!

Great news for Paphitis.....

Methinks it is nearly time to strike, because this foreigner is in the market.

More fool you if you listen to the siren song of GR !

" Foreigners are nothing compared to the young newly married Cypriot couples looking for a first home."
really? i havnt seen any young or old newly married Cypriots moving into the rabbit hutch estates that have been built for foreigners stupid enough to buy them...especially now the market has caught a cold over title deed problems.

Sadly Varosha is nothing but an area waiting to be demolised. 35 years of neglect and decay have seen to that. rusting steelwork, degrading concrete and the erosion of service units such as sewerage and water pipes, electricity cables and tree root damage mean it will be useless.

tell the growing lines of unemployed that its a "blessing" and that 90% of business in Cyprus isnt hiring right now- as for no country selling land to foreigners, where would all the Cypriots abroad live then? all those proud little house owners??? It wasnt the Buyers that set the prices on the houses, and it wasnt them that kept trying to squeeze more profit out of the market. and prices certainly havnt "gone back" to previous levels.

You may be right about a decreased growth not bothering the government as they are doing ok - if it did they would certainly be clawing back the money outstanding owed to them by such things as the title deed fiasco, unpaid fines, etc etc

[Get Real!]

i havnt seen any young or old newly married Cypriots moving into the rabbit hutch estates that have been built for foreigners stupid enough to buy them...especially now the market has caught a cold over title deed problems.

Every year, tens of thousands of newly married Cypriot couples go home hunting to setup a family and that’s where most of the home-construction industry’s money comes from, not from the 200 odd piss-pot “villas” built for British pensioners!

...tell the growing lines of unemployed that its a "blessing" and that 90% of business in Cyprus isnt hiring right now-

The increasing unemployment is due to the constant introduction of foreign labour, but if you reduce or remove that your unemployment problem will be solved.

as for no country selling land to foreigners, where would all the Cypriots abroad live then?

When I say “foreigners” I’m talking about non-RoC citizens.

...and prices certainly havnt "gone back" to previous levels.

Then the construction industry must and will continue to fall until something magical is reached called the... "equilibrium price"!

Some of you need to expand your view window to accurately reflect what’s happening island-wide not just Paphos-village wide, because the Cyprus bread basket is Nicosia and Limassol, not the piss-pot Paphos that many of you seem to imagine!

Finally, a country’s most important asset is its LOCAL tax-paying labour force so the government would do well to recognise and assist those that keep them where they are!

Also, costly Turkish Cypriot privileges (except for those living and working in the unoccupied area of Cyprus) must be slashed once the negotiations end!

[Oracle]

I thought they had just announced record Building Permit applications ...

[Oracle]

Yup ... here it is:

Cyprus building permits bounced in September, as the number of building permits authorised by the municipal authorities and the district administration offices during September 2009 rose by 53.8% over the year earlier to 775.

Source: Financialmirror.com

As GR! says, I hope it's the domestic market finally having some confidence and means (compared to poverty-stricken Brits) to purchase after being out-competed by foreigners for years.

[YFred]

Construction in the south has collapsed.

No it hasn't.

Foreigners are just not buying property in the south any more.

Foreigners are nothing compared to the young newly married Cypriot couples looking for a first home.

How badly does the south need Varosha now, and would they be prepared to allow free trade to the north for it?

Unlike the illegal, morally and financially corrupt “TRNC”, the RoC doesn’t rely on just one or two industries to make 25b p/annum!

Yest it has and you know it. I didn't just make it up. That piece of info came from a GC friend of mine who has his his own consultancy and does a fair bit of work in Cyprus.
His word is good enough from me. He said construction in the south has collapsed.
You can pretend otherwise all you like.

[Kikapu]

Maraş could be opened up by the TRNC and the owners of prperties could be allowed back to resettle, do you think GCs would come to live in the TRNC?

Why not, they live in Karpaz, I see no difference, but I would accept giving back Maras for free trade. No that the GCs would accept such a deal. They want it for nothing.

As if Verosa or 80% of the north belongs to you to make such offer other than blackmailing, and even then, the north only does what Turkey tells them, therefore the north has ZERO voice to decide anything for themselves.!

The north has free trade with 70 million Turks in Turkey and yet they refuse to buy very much from the north. Why is that.? Is it because that the north has very little to offer or that the Turkey couldn't give crap about the north's economy and poorer the north remains, the more Turkey likes it . The Turks could also come to the north in large numbers for their holidays, but choose to stay in Turkey instead. If the Turks are not willing to help the north by buying from the north, what makes you think you can offer anything to anyone else.?? In order to deal with the rest of the world, you need to either go through the official government of Cyprus or find a settlement to keep Cyprus as ONE country. So far the north has refused to do either one.!

Then, by your logic, what has the south got to fear by accepting free trade for the north. You have twisted logic. It does not make sense.
Partition it will be then.

The fear is, I assume, is that once they open the doors a little of allowing the north to trade outside the control of the RoC, they will then be on the slippery slope to allow everything else to be free and once other countries sees that the RoC is allowing certain freedom to the north as an illegal state on occupied territory to do as they wish on their own, they will then take actions on their own themselves to do more with the north. In the end, the north will have very little incentive to find a settlement since the north would have achieved keeping out the GCs from their properties and allowed to have free trade with the world, assuming they have anything the world needs from the north, without the guarantee of finding a settlement, but instead do the opposite and push for a partition even more, because the north will be able to say to the world, "hey, if the RoC doesn't mind us trading on our own while we are keeping them away from their homes with the help of 40,000 Turkish Troops, then you shouldn't care either, therefore just recognise us as a separate country and be done with it and by the way, don’t forget to give us our EU membership also with the laws set on our own terms” and so on.

Basically, the north will be handed all the occupied areas by the RoC willingly. I don't think they will oblige you somehow, so if you think you can get a permanent partition on your own as you have been trying for the last 35 years if these negotiations fail, then go ahead, because you will still be a illegal state and the north and Turkey out of the EU permanently. I don't know why Talat is even negotiating if he thought permanent partition was in his hands, so go ahead and do it, is what the RoC will tell you.! By contrast, the north has less to lose by giving Verosa back 35 years late and everything to gain since it is not being used for anything other than trying to use it as a bargaining chip to gain something for the north to an agreed partition perhaps. To the RoC, that would be a insignificant gain of an derelict place that has no use for the GCs until there is a final settlement so that money can be invested in that city to be rebuilt by risking in losing the north completely by allowing free trade by the north on their own under the present conditions. Any free trade or running the sea /air ports will need to include the RoC or else it is a no go in my opinion and if the shoe was on the other foot, you would do exactly as the RoC is doing now. If you tell me anything otherwise, I will not believe you, so lets hear what you have to say.!

[Viewpoint]

Then again no deal yet again, Maraş will only be handed back on the basis there are direct flights and free trade, if they are willing to operate the GC ports jointly with us then they are more than welcome to come give us a hand.

[YFred]

Maraş could be opened up by the TRNC and the owners of prperties could be allowed back to resettle, do you think GCs would come to live in the TRNC?

Why not, they live in Karpaz, I see no difference, but I would accept giving back Maras for free trade. No that the GCs would accept such a deal. They want it for nothing.

As if Verosa or 80% of the north belongs to you to make such offer other than blackmailing, and even then, the north only does what Turkey tells them, therefore the north has ZERO voice to decide anything for themselves.!

The north has free trade with 70 million Turks in Turkey and yet they refuse to buy very much from the north. Why is that.? Is it because that the north has very little to offer or that the Turkey couldn't give crap about the north's economy and poorer the north remains, the more Turkey likes it . The Turks could also come to the north in large numbers for their holidays, but choose to stay in Turkey instead. If the Turks are not willing to help the north by buying from the north, what makes you think you can offer anything to anyone else.?? In order to deal with the rest of the world, you need to either go through the official government of Cyprus or find a settlement to keep Cyprus as ONE country. So far the north has refused to do either one.!

Then, by your logic, what has the south got to fear by accepting free trade for the north. You have twisted logic. It does not make sense.
Partition it will be then.

The fear is, I assume, is that once they open the doors a little of allowing the north to trade outside the control of the RoC, they will then be on the slippery slope to allow everything else to be free and once other countries sees that the RoC is allowing certain freedom to the north as an illegal state on occupied territory to do as they wish on their own, they will then take actions on their own themselves to do more with the north. In the end, the north will have very little incentive to find a settlement since the north would have achieved keeping out the GCs from their properties and allowed to have free trade with the world, assuming they have anything the world needs from the north, without the guarantee of finding a settlement, but instead do the opposite and push for a partition even more, because the north will be able to say to the world, "hey, if the RoC doesn't mind us trading on our own while we are keeping them away from their homes with the help of 40,000 Turkish Troops, then you shouldn't care either, therefore just recognise us as a separate country and be done with it and by the way, don’t forget to give us our EU membership also with the laws set on our own terms” and so on.

Basically, the north will be handed all the occupied areas by the RoC willingly. I don't think they will oblige you somehow, so if you think you can get a permanent partition on your own as you have been trying for the last 35 years if these negotiations fail, then go ahead, because you will still be a illegal state and the north and Turkey out of the EU permanently. I don't know why Talat is even negotiating if he thought permanent partition was in his hands, so go ahead and do it, is what the RoC will tell you.! By contrast, the north has less to lose by giving Verosa back 35 years late and everything to gain since it is not being used for anything other than trying to use it as a bargaining chip to gain something for the north to an agreed partition perhaps. To the RoC, that would be a insignificant gain of an derelict place that has no use for the GCs until there is a final settlement so that money can be invested in that city to be rebuilt by risking in losing the north completely by allowing free trade by the north on their own under the present conditions. Any free trade or running the sea /air ports will need to include the RoC or else it is a no go in my opinion and if the shoe was on the other foot, you would do exactly as the RoC is doing now. If you tell me anything otherwise, I will not believe you, so lets hear what you have to say.!

1. You keep harping on about 70 million turks and trade with them. Turks can produce evrything cheaper and better than TRNC roc or even Greece. So to even think it never mind posing such an idea show how much you undertand.
2. If Turkey ever gets into EU, god help Greece and roc, their industry will be decimated.
3. Turkey has always had a plan for a vote to prove to the world that it's the GC that were intransigent, but Denktash grabbed the tiger by the tail and wouldn't do what was best for the TCs, hence eventually they stopped supporting him. So he lost.
4. If Talat had designs on two seperate states, he would not be at he negotiation, you just do not know the man or his team. Unification with BBF has always been his target.
5. This idea that the TCs would trade with goods from stolen lands is just bullshit and you know it, because the GCs have been doing it since 1963 long before the Turks arrival.
6. This idea that It's against true democracy and international law is another one of your bullshit ideas, because wars are fought all the time and there are losers and winners with no redress from courts. Talk to the Palestinians.
7. As to partition if the talks fail or the GCs vote no again, time will tell. We can only guess, but the time is not on GCs side any more. Judging by what leaders in general are saying, Cyprus is no longer a problem. You can see that by the way UN treats their presence in Cyprus and how they portray their soldiers as wasted manpower especially when they are needed elsewhere.
8. Sooner rather than later they will pull out.

[Kikapu]

Then again no deal yet again, Maraş will only be handed back on the basis there are direct flights and free trade, if they are willing to operate the GC ports jointly with us then they are more than welcome to come give us a hand.

As I've said, Verosa at the present time in my opinion, is worthless to the RoC since it requires a lot of investment to rebuild it. Why do all that when the Cyprus problem is not solved yet. The north needs free trade and direct flights far more urgently than the RoC needs Verosa back at this point in time, so they will continue to let the north be what the UN labelled it as, an illegal entity that it should not be recognised by it's members. So far that remains to be the case without any sign of changing, so the RoC will get Verosa back in a settlement in a Unified Cyprus under True Federation which will be still part of Cyprus for all Cypriot to enjoy rather than risk losing half the country by allowing free trade and direct flights prematurely. It's going to be all or nothing for all around and since the RoC has the legality and the recognition and in the EU, they can afford to wait for the right settlement that is in line with the EU Principles. The only thing the north has on it side that keeps the isolation ongoing, is the Turkish Army and the no settlement, because if Turkey does not want a settlement, there won't be a settlement no matter what the TCs say, so what good is it to get Verosa back when the Turkish Army is right next to it as an occupying force. Rome wasn't built in a day, and neither will Verosa.!