Cyprus-Forum.com

[grokked]

Commentary, also published at:
http://bit.ly/13y20n

The item below highlights a very rarely expressed view (in ANY diplomatic fora) that if the Greek Cypriots had voted yes in the 2004 Referendum, and if the Annan Plan HAD proceeded into implementation -- THEN arguably the AKP Government would have been overthrown by the Turkish military and the consequences for Cyprus if that had happened are open to speculation.

Its significance however is in highlighting the reality of the non-enforceability of any agreement between the leaders of the Greek and Turkish Cypriots if such an agreement involves issues unacceptable to the Turkish Deep State.

It also puts paid to the argument that the views of the Turkish Cypriots voting in any referendum in Cyprus actually has any significance - even if one ignores the fact that unlawfully imported Turkish settlers in the occupied areas outnumber indigenous Turkish Cypriots by almost 2 to 1 - when the Turkish military have such absolute veto power over any settlement of the problems of the Republic of Cyprus.

(Verbatim extracts, below, are from Zaman Today http://bit.ly/2xhbwK)


"The 62nd meeting of the EU-Turkey Joint Parliamentary Committee was held in Parliament earlier this week.

"Turkey's credibility as a state founded on the rule of law is at stake vis-à-vis the eventual fate of an ongoing investigation into Ergenekon, a gang that attempted to overthrow the government, particularly now that the authenticity of a document laying out a military plot aimed at destroying the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and the faith-based Gülen movement has been confirmed, a senior member of the European Parliament has warned.

"Liberal Democrat politician and member of the European Parliament Andrew Duff was in Ankara earlier this week on the occasion of the 62nd meeting of the EU-Turkey Joint Parliamentary Committee. The meeting coincided with the emergence of the original of the military plot which has sent shockwaves throughout the country, with many circles gearing up to stand by democracy and the rule of law in Turkey."


Andrew Duff MEP:

“I think it is important that we believe that the prime minister can instruct the army as opposed to the army instructing their prime minister. There’s going to come a time, I hope, that there is a settlement of the Cyprus issue. That’s the time when the prime minister will have to instruct the chief of general staff to withdraw some of its troops from the island. We need to be certain that such an instruction from a prime minister to a chief of general staff is going to be obeyed, is going to be followed. If the Ergenekon crisis is to perpetuate a sense of contest between the army and the Parliament, then we can’t be certain that the settlement of the division of the island, if agreed by the Cypriots, will actually be effective on the ground,” he added.


(end Zaman Extracts)

(Resume Commentary)

Diplomats of other EU countries should stop talking about how Turkey is being constructive in efforts to solve the Cyprus problem and recognise that if the community does really wish to see the gordian knot over the Cyprus issue resolved it is imperative now for the EU to send a clear and unequivocal signal to Turkey to undertake withdrawal of its troops and settlers from Cyprus if it wants to avoid a complete freeze of its accession process during the December 2009 Summit.

The Government of Cyprus, working with the active cooperation of the Greek Government which has already expressed its view that existing powers of Guarantee over the Republic of Cyprus should be abolished in any future Cyprus agreement - must work, with the cooperative input of other governments of the EU, to elicit a policy statement - that the nominees for the post of President and for the post of High Representative for Foreign Affairs, will, as part of the confirmation hearings into their appointment, be asked to explain what steps they would propose to implement in drafting and obtaining unanimous EU support of an EU alternative to the Guarantor Power agreements in the 1960 founding instruments of the Republic of Cyprus.

In recognition that actual responsibility for a solution of the Cyprus problem must ultimately be fulfilled by the the United Nations rather than the EU, the EU could recognise that it is in its interest to make a recommendation and undertake the submission of a motion to the UN Security Council to suspend Turkey's seat as a non-permanent member of the Council, pending resolution of these issues


A particularly heartening recent development on the Cyprus issue was the Cyprus communication to U.S. Secretary of State Clinton, described in a Press Release by the Hellenic News of America available at http://bit.ly/Q2oup , "Secretary Clinton receives important Cyprus communication signed by over 30% of U.S. Congress"


"This letter was signed by just under one-third of the entire U.S. Congress. According to the Library of Congress database, only three other foreign policy-related issues -- Iran , Cuba and the Armenian Genocide -- had more Members of Congress expressing such deep concern as cosponsors of resolutions," said Coordinated Effort of Hellenes (CEH) President Andrew Manatos."

Text of Letter

"These Congressional leaders expressed support for Secretary Clinton's efforts to "avoid the resurrection of settlement provisions like those of the 2004 UN effort." They noted that, "those provisions were overwhelmingly rejected and considered `unacceptable to western democracies' by a majority of the Senate European Affairs Subcommittee. You also recognized them recently as the cause for the plan's failure."

"They added that, "foreign advocacy of artificial deadlines and unacceptable settlement provisions contributed to the defeat of the 2004 settlement efforts."

"With regard to Turkey 's illegal occupation of Cyprus , these Congressional leaders said that, "No EU country could be expected to acquiesce to the occupation of a fellow EU member, much less to embrace the occupier as a member of the EU club. It is a virtual certainty that Turkey will never achieve its dream of EU membership as long as its troops continue to occupy Cyprus ."

"They supported efforts to "protect [today's Cypriot settlement negotiators] from foreign constraints and artificial timetables so that they can achieve a bi-communal, bizonal federation that adheres to UN resolutions."

"They concluded by stressing to the Secretary that, "To succeed, a settlement effort should be `of the Cypriots, by the Cypriots and for the Cypriots.'"

[Nikitas]

One serioius comment: "I think it is important that we believe that the prime minister can instruct the army as opposed to the army instructing their prime minister"

And one joke: "There’s going to come a time, I hope, that there is a settlement of the Cyprus issue. That’s the time when the prime minister will have to instruct the chief of general staff to withdraw some of its troops from the island."

This guy obviously does not understand who he is dealing with.

[YFred]

One serioius comment: "I think it is important that we believe that the prime minister can instruct the army as opposed to the army instructing their prime minister"

And one joke: "There’s going to come a time, I hope, that there is a settlement of the Cyprus issue. That’s the time when the prime minister will have to instruct the chief of general staff to withdraw some of its troops from the island."

This guy obviously does not understand who he is dealing with.

Nikitas you have a habit of cracking jokes but constantly ruining the punchline. Keep working on it, it does eventually come with practice. In this case you missed it completely. You didn't say which country actually has such a practice and you can begin from the US and work your way down. Which one is actually democratic enough for the armed forces to take note of the prime minister?

[Nikitas]

"Which one is actually democratic enough for the armed forces to take note of the prime minister? "

In most countries the government appoints, promotes, demotes and dismisses the top officers of the armed forces. Look it up. Even Greece does it that way. And when you do that then look up the countries where top military brass sit with the government in the fomulation of policy. And then tell us in which group you would place Turkey.

But beyuond that, the thought that "that is how they all do it" is the major self made obstacle for Turkey. No, it is not the way everyone does it.

[YFred]

"Which one is actually democratic enough for the armed forces to take note of the prime minister? "

In most countries the government appoints, promotes, demotes and dismisses the top officers of the armed forces. Look it up. Even Greece does it that way. And when you do that then look up the countries where top military brass sit with the government in the fomulation of policy. And then tell us in which group you would place Turkey.

But beyuond that, the thought that "that is how they all do it" is the major self made obstacle for Turkey. No, it is not the way everyone does it.

And now for you next joke. Once the prime minister appoints this new general, who does he get his orders from?
Make this punch line a good one.

[Oracle]

Sounds like there's no point trying to reach an agreement with any (interim/temporary) government of Turkey if the only stable, real power is with their military.

So, why doesn't the EU see this as a purely military occupation of Cyprus and deal with Turkey accordingly i.e. by-pass the government and hit the Turkish military where it hurts!

[Nikitas]

"And now for you next joke. Once the prime minister appoints this new general, who does he get his orders from?
Make this punch line a good one."

Obviously you are having a problem understanding the setup. The military are UNDER the civilians in modern states. When the politicians say jump, the military jump, that is why the British military went to Iraq and Afghanistan even though they disagreed with the objectives of both campaigns.

Greece fired most of its general staff after the Imia crisis. And the military went home without a word.

As for the USA, look up the appointments of the joint chiefs and how they take place.

If you are implyring that the generals of mdoern states somehow generate their own orders then you are the humorist around here.

The concept of popular sovereignty, the foundation of modern states would naturally be a little strange to you. But it does happen to be effective and actually practiced in most civilised countries.