Cyprus-Forum.com

[YFred]

The military conflict has some interesting points to ponder.

Seeing the situation from the point of view of the commanders of each side provides some challenges.

The National Guard has a comparatively limited objective, to recapture the north. The area is right next door, so there is no major logistical problem. The biggest problem the NG would face is preventing the air force and navy from operating, which is doable but not with current military thinking.

Inventive thinking would require preparations to deal with HARM and HOPPY weapons that the Turkish air force has, and so far there is not much preparation in that direction.

In the event of a defensive action, the NG will have the task of dealing with 400 tanks in addition to the air force and navy. Again, it is doable, on the same conditions as above. There are weapons in the arsenal of the NG right now that can deal with tanks very effectively.


Looking at the situation from the other side, in the case of a defensive action they would have to call in air support and possibly naval bombardment of coastal areas. The question here would be to bomb what? During the first minutes of a military action there is dispersal of forces and all bases are empty and basically useless as targets. Bombing ports and civilian targets would not offer much support to the military.

In an offensive action presumably the objectives would be to capture key poins such as ports, air ports, communications and to blockade the island, cutting off the seaway between Greece and Cyprus.

The actual situation on the ground would quickly become secondary to the international political situation that would arise. Whoever is the attacker, or is seen to be the attacker, would be quickly slapped down by powers that value stability. It is unlikely that any projection of power in international waters would be tolerated for long. Neither could the conflict be kept localised for more than a day or two before it escalates to a full confrontation between Greece and Turkey on a front stretching from Cyprus to the triple border point with Bulgaria. Whatever happens must happen in hours rather than days.

I agree with everything above Nikitas.

What you state is pure common sense.

However, I would like to also add that the GC side, at present, does not have the psychology to fight an offensive war. The capability within the CNG is certainly present, but the nation is in no condition to start anything.

The best we can expect is to maintain our defensive lines should Turkey beak the cease fire.

To start an offensive operation from our side would require many years of defense planning, mental preparation, and new weapon acquisition programs to the extent that the RoC economy must be sacrificed and bought upon its knees....a very unlikely scenario.

Suppose one side prevails, and takes over the whole island, then comes the problem of "now you got it, what are you going to do with it". Which of the two sides has the means to police hundreds of thousands of armed people who will be taking pot shots at the enemy?

Definitely not an easy one.

Let's just say that the CNG went an the offensive. At present, the best outcome would be to push the Turkish Occupation forces further back to within lets say 25%, or even 20% of Cyprus.

It is inconceivable to expect that the CNG will manage to completely defeat the TA, although I am the first to admit that anything is possible.

The CNG or Greece would be completely powerless to cut supply lines from Turkey, so it is important that some other country gets involved with the necessary naval power and capacity. We need to remember, that the HAF and HN will be preoccupied in the Aegean and Thrace, and this alone would benefit us as Turkey would be required to dedicate more assets towards the west. Having said this, Turkish reinforcements will arrive in Cyprus without intervention from another power.

The above might be desirable if the CNG is successful in forcing a Turkish retreat to within lets say 25% or even 20% or less. This in itself would be deemed a major victory.

This of course will mean that approximately 100,000 Turks will be trapped behind CNG lines. These could form an insurgency (TMT style) which would be a head ache for our conventional army. They should be encouraged and allowed to evacuate behind Turkish Lines in order to avoid this outcome.

The CNG should then bunker down, and maintain defensive positions. Turkey will continue to bring in reinforcements and there will be some air bombardment. There would be very little the TA will be able to do against an army that is well dug in.

Whether an operation is deemed a military success or not, would depend on our predetermined objectives. The CNG's primary objective is defense, and at best, to commence a limited offensive resulting in a Turkish retreat and loss of territory.

Bloody brilliant! If you think the Turks would confine their targets to military ones you must be mad. They would almost certainly target power stations, de-salination plants, radio and TV stations, ports and even the dams. I doubt if any cargo ships would would attempt to get past a blockade. Whatever the immediate outcome of a war on the island the economy would be smashed to pieces and if the Greek Cypriots were seen as the instigators of the conflict I doubt if they would get an much help from the EU. Turkish "pride" would never allow it to be beaten by the GCs, eventually they would take the whole island even if it meant a re-invasion.

And.....

So what?

Of course they will target our infrastructure.

But so would Greece and Cyprus.

Such a war can only ever last for 2-3 days max. Before you know it, NATO, US and EU will get involved, and a new cease fire could be negotiated. Turkey would be powerless to do anything if the CNG met its objective of causing a retreat.

The US 6th Fleet, will prevent an escalating war between Turkey and Greece, because that is not in their interest!

[denizaksulu]

The military conflict has some interesting points to ponder.

Seeing the situation from the point of view of the commanders of each side provides some challenges.

The National Guard has a comparatively limited objective, to recapture the north. The area is right next door, so there is no major logistical problem. The biggest problem the NG would face is preventing the air force and navy from operating, which is doable but not with current military thinking.

Inventive thinking would require preparations to deal with HARM and HOPPY weapons that the Turkish air force has, and so far there is not much preparation in that direction.

In the event of a defensive action, the NG will have the task of dealing with 400 tanks in addition to the air force and navy. Again, it is doable, on the same conditions as above. There are weapons in the arsenal of the NG right now that can deal with tanks very effectively.


Looking at the situation from the other side, in the case of a defensive action they would have to call in air support and possibly naval bombardment of coastal areas. The question here would be to bomb what? During the first minutes of a military action there is dispersal of forces and all bases are empty and basically useless as targets. Bombing ports and civilian targets would not offer much support to the military.

In an offensive action presumably the objectives would be to capture key poins such as ports, air ports, communications and to blockade the island, cutting off the seaway between Greece and Cyprus.

The actual situation on the ground would quickly become secondary to the international political situation that would arise. Whoever is the attacker, or is seen to be the attacker, would be quickly slapped down by powers that value stability. It is unlikely that any projection of power in international waters would be tolerated for long. Neither could the conflict be kept localised for more than a day or two before it escalates to a full confrontation between Greece and Turkey on a front stretching from Cyprus to the triple border point with Bulgaria. Whatever happens must happen in hours rather than days.

I agree with everything above Nikitas.

What you state is pure common sense.

However, I would like to also add that the GC side, at present, does not have the psychology to fight an offensive war. The capability within the CNG is certainly present, but the nation is in no condition to start anything.

The best we can expect is to maintain our defensive lines should Turkey beak the cease fire.

To start an offensive operation from our side would require many years of defense planning, mental preparation, and new weapon acquisition programs to the extent that the RoC economy must be sacrificed and bought upon its knees....a very unlikely scenario.

Suppose one side prevails, and takes over the whole island, then comes the problem of "now you got it, what are you going to do with it". Which of the two sides has the means to police hundreds of thousands of armed people who will be taking pot shots at the enemy?

Definitely not an easy one.

Let's just say that the CNG went an the offensive. At present, the best outcome would be to push the Turkish Occupation forces further back to within lets say 25%, or even 20% of Cyprus.

It is inconceivable to expect that the CNG will manage to completely defeat the TA, although I am the first to admit that anything is possible.

The CNG or Greece would be completely powerless to cut supply lines from Turkey, so it is important that some other country gets involved with the necessary naval power and capacity. We need to remember, that the HAF and HN will be preoccupied in the Aegean and Thrace, and this alone would benefit us as Turkey would be required to dedicate more assets towards the west. Having said this, Turkish reinforcements will arrive in Cyprus without intervention from another power.

The above might be desirable if the CNG is successful in forcing a Turkish retreat to within lets say 25% or even 20% or less. This in itself would be deemed a major victory.

This of course will mean that approximately 100,000 Turks will be trapped behind CNG lines. These could form an insurgency (TMT style) which would be a head ache for our conventional army. They should be encouraged and allowed to evacuate behind Turkish Lines in order to avoid this outcome.

The CNG should then bunker down, and maintain defensive positions. Turkey will continue to bring in reinforcements and there will be some air bombardment. There would be very little the TA will be able to do against an army that is well dug in.

Whether an operation is deemed a military success or not, would depend on our predetermined objectives. The CNG's primary objective is defense, and at best, to commence a limited offensive resulting in a Turkish retreat and loss of territory.

Bloody brilliant! If you think the Turks would confine their targets to military ones you must be mad. They would almost certainly target power stations, de-salination plants, radio and TV stations, ports and even the dams. I doubt if any cargo ships would would attempt to get past a blockade. Whatever the immediate outcome of a war on the island the economy would be smashed to pieces and if the Greek Cypriots were seen as the instigators of the conflict I doubt if they would get an much help from the EU. Turkish "pride" would never allow it to be beaten by the GCs, eventually they would take the whole island even if it meant a re-invasion.

And.....

So what?

Of course they will target our infrastructure.

But so would Greece and Cyprus.

Such a war can only ever last for 2-3 days max. Before you know it, NATO, US and EU will get involved, and a new cease fire could be negotiated. Turkey would be powerless to do anything if the CNG met its objective of causing a retreat.

The US 6th Fleet, will prevent an escalating war between Turkey and Greece, because that is not in their interest!

LIKE THEY DID IN 1974 AND CYPRUS HAS BEEN DIVIDED .SINCE .

[insan]

The military conflict has some interesting points to ponder.

Seeing the situation from the point of view of the commanders of each side provides some challenges.

The National Guard has a comparatively limited objective, to recapture the north. The area is right next door, so there is no major logistical problem. The biggest problem the NG would face is preventing the air force and navy from operating, which is doable but not with current military thinking.

Inventive thinking would require preparations to deal with HARM and HOPPY weapons that the Turkish air force has, and so far there is not much preparation in that direction.

In the event of a defensive action, the NG will have the task of dealing with 400 tanks in addition to the air force and navy. Again, it is doable, on the same conditions as above. There are weapons in the arsenal of the NG right now that can deal with tanks very effectively.


Looking at the situation from the other side, in the case of a defensive action they would have to call in air support and possibly naval bombardment of coastal areas. The question here would be to bomb what? During the first minutes of a military action there is dispersal of forces and all bases are empty and basically useless as targets. Bombing ports and civilian targets would not offer much support to the military.

In an offensive action presumably the objectives would be to capture key poins such as ports, air ports, communications and to blockade the island, cutting off the seaway between Greece and Cyprus.

The actual situation on the ground would quickly become secondary to the international political situation that would arise. Whoever is the attacker, or is seen to be the attacker, would be quickly slapped down by powers that value stability. It is unlikely that any projection of power in international waters would be tolerated for long. Neither could the conflict be kept localised for more than a day or two before it escalates to a full confrontation between Greece and Turkey on a front stretching from Cyprus to the triple border point with Bulgaria. Whatever happens must happen in hours rather than days.

I agree with everything above Nikitas.

What you state is pure common sense.

However, I would like to also add that the GC side, at present, does not have the psychology to fight an offensive war. The capability within the CNG is certainly present, but the nation is in no condition to start anything.

The best we can expect is to maintain our defensive lines should Turkey beak the cease fire.

To start an offensive operation from our side would require many years of defense planning, mental preparation, and new weapon acquisition programs to the extent that the RoC economy must be sacrificed and bought upon its knees....a very unlikely scenario.

Suppose one side prevails, and takes over the whole island, then comes the problem of "now you got it, what are you going to do with it". Which of the two sides has the means to police hundreds of thousands of armed people who will be taking pot shots at the enemy?

Definitely not an easy one.

Let's just say that the CNG went an the offensive. At present, the best outcome would be to push the Turkish Occupation forces further back to within lets say 25%, or even 20% of Cyprus.

It is inconceivable to expect that the CNG will manage to completely defeat the TA, although I am the first to admit that anything is possible.

The CNG or Greece would be completely powerless to cut supply lines from Turkey, so it is important that some other country gets involved with the necessary naval power and capacity. We need to remember, that the HAF and HN will be preoccupied in the Aegean and Thrace, and this alone would benefit us as Turkey would be required to dedicate more assets towards the west. Having said this, Turkish reinforcements will arrive in Cyprus without intervention from another power.

The above might be desirable if the CNG is successful in forcing a Turkish retreat to within lets say 25% or even 20% or less. This in itself would be deemed a major victory.

This of course will mean that approximately 100,000 Turks will be trapped behind CNG lines. These could form an insurgency (TMT style) which would be a head ache for our conventional army. They should be encouraged and allowed to evacuate behind Turkish Lines in order to avoid this outcome.

The CNG should then bunker down, and maintain defensive positions. Turkey will continue to bring in reinforcements and there will be some air bombardment. There would be very little the TA will be able to do against an army that is well dug in.

Whether an operation is deemed a military success or not, would depend on our predetermined objectives. The CNG's primary objective is defense, and at best, to commence a limited offensive resulting in a Turkish retreat and loss of territory.

Bloody brilliant! If you think the Turks would confine their targets to military ones you must be mad. They would almost certainly target power stations, de-salination plants, radio and TV stations, ports and even the dams. I doubt if any cargo ships would would attempt to get past a blockade. Whatever the immediate outcome of a war on the island the economy would be smashed to pieces and if the Greek Cypriots were seen as the instigators of the conflict I doubt if they would get an much help from the EU. Turkish "pride" would never allow it to be beaten by the GCs, eventually they would take the whole island even if it meant a re-invasion.

And.....

So what?

Of course they will target our infrastructure.

But so would Greece and Cyprus.

Such a war can only ever last for 2-3 days max. Before you know it, NATO, US and EU will get involved, and a new cease fire could be negotiated. Turkey would be powerless to do anything if the CNG met its objective of causing a retreat.

The US 6th Fleet, will prevent an escalating war between Turkey and Greece, because that is not in their interest!

LIKE THEY DID IN 1974 AND CYPRUS HAS BEEN DIVIDED .SINCE .

What Bafidi cares is to retreat TCs and Turks to 20%-25% of Cyprus... he does not care whether it would cause thousands of human losses and billions of economic loss. A pure idiot!

[Paphitis]

The military conflict has some interesting points to ponder.

Seeing the situation from the point of view of the commanders of each side provides some challenges.

The National Guard has a comparatively limited objective, to recapture the north. The area is right next door, so there is no major logistical problem. The biggest problem the NG would face is preventing the air force and navy from operating, which is doable but not with current military thinking.

Inventive thinking would require preparations to deal with HARM and HOPPY weapons that the Turkish air force has, and so far there is not much preparation in that direction.

In the event of a defensive action, the NG will have the task of dealing with 400 tanks in addition to the air force and navy. Again, it is doable, on the same conditions as above. There are weapons in the arsenal of the NG right now that can deal with tanks very effectively.


Looking at the situation from the other side, in the case of a defensive action they would have to call in air support and possibly naval bombardment of coastal areas. The question here would be to bomb what? During the first minutes of a military action there is dispersal of forces and all bases are empty and basically useless as targets. Bombing ports and civilian targets would not offer much support to the military.

In an offensive action presumably the objectives would be to capture key poins such as ports, air ports, communications and to blockade the island, cutting off the seaway between Greece and Cyprus.

The actual situation on the ground would quickly become secondary to the international political situation that would arise. Whoever is the attacker, or is seen to be the attacker, would be quickly slapped down by powers that value stability. It is unlikely that any projection of power in international waters would be tolerated for long. Neither could the conflict be kept localised for more than a day or two before it escalates to a full confrontation between Greece and Turkey on a front stretching from Cyprus to the triple border point with Bulgaria. Whatever happens must happen in hours rather than days.

I agree with everything above Nikitas.

What you state is pure common sense.

However, I would like to also add that the GC side, at present, does not have the psychology to fight an offensive war. The capability within the CNG is certainly present, but the nation is in no condition to start anything.

The best we can expect is to maintain our defensive lines should Turkey beak the cease fire.

To start an offensive operation from our side would require many years of defense planning, mental preparation, and new weapon acquisition programs to the extent that the RoC economy must be sacrificed and bought upon its knees....a very unlikely scenario.

Suppose one side prevails, and takes over the whole island, then comes the problem of "now you got it, what are you going to do with it". Which of the two sides has the means to police hundreds of thousands of armed people who will be taking pot shots at the enemy?

Definitely not an easy one.

Let's just say that the CNG went an the offensive. At present, the best outcome would be to push the Turkish Occupation forces further back to within lets say 25%, or even 20% of Cyprus.

It is inconceivable to expect that the CNG will manage to completely defeat the TA, although I am the first to admit that anything is possible.

The CNG or Greece would be completely powerless to cut supply lines from Turkey, so it is important that some other country gets involved with the necessary naval power and capacity. We need to remember, that the HAF and HN will be preoccupied in the Aegean and Thrace, and this alone would benefit us as Turkey would be required to dedicate more assets towards the west. Having said this, Turkish reinforcements will arrive in Cyprus without intervention from another power.

The above might be desirable if the CNG is successful in forcing a Turkish retreat to within lets say 25% or even 20% or less. This in itself would be deemed a major victory.

This of course will mean that approximately 100,000 Turks will be trapped behind CNG lines. These could form an insurgency (TMT style) which would be a head ache for our conventional army. They should be encouraged and allowed to evacuate behind Turkish Lines in order to avoid this outcome.

The CNG should then bunker down, and maintain defensive positions. Turkey will continue to bring in reinforcements and there will be some air bombardment. There would be very little the TA will be able to do against an army that is well dug in.

Whether an operation is deemed a military success or not, would depend on our predetermined objectives. The CNG's primary objective is defense, and at best, to commence a limited offensive resulting in a Turkish retreat and loss of territory.

Your war scenarios r totally unrealistic, Bafidi. U didn't take anything into account regarding the existing world alliances and political stances of some regional powers, such as Russia.

The GCNG's sole objective could only be defending the existing cease-fire line against the so-called TC-Turkish threat which TCs and Turks would never attempt to break it unless any military offensive is initiated from South of the cease-fire line be it from GCNG or together with them GNG and some other EU military forces.

Of course I did.

I was being very realistic with a possible scenario.

But having said this, any action would be a complete gamble as things stand today.

Jerry even mentioned the possibility of the TA targeting dams and desalination plants. So what is he insinuating?

Is he insinuating that Cypriots will be left without any water?

Let's just think about this for 1 second.

An escalation in Cyprus will no doubt result in Gurkhas, Australian SAS, British SAS, Royal Marines, and Canadian special forces being deployed to the SBA's, just like they did in 74.

Would they permit their forces to perish of thirst?

Of course not!

They would no doubt commence a massive human relief effort on the island, even deploying mobile Desal plants and initiate massive air lifts through Akrotiri.

Other EU nations such as France, Greece, and maybe even Germany, Italy and Spain would also respond.

It seems people need to think before they become hysterical (Jerry).

NATO will NEVER attack the CNG or come to Turkey's aid. Their actions would be confined in ending the clash and deescalating the conflict between Greece and Turkey.

[Paphitis]

The military conflict has some interesting points to ponder.

Seeing the situation from the point of view of the commanders of each side provides some challenges.

The National Guard has a comparatively limited objective, to recapture the north. The area is right next door, so there is no major logistical problem. The biggest problem the NG would face is preventing the air force and navy from operating, which is doable but not with current military thinking.

Inventive thinking would require preparations to deal with HARM and HOPPY weapons that the Turkish air force has, and so far there is not much preparation in that direction.

In the event of a defensive action, the NG will have the task of dealing with 400 tanks in addition to the air force and navy. Again, it is doable, on the same conditions as above. There are weapons in the arsenal of the NG right now that can deal with tanks very effectively.


Looking at the situation from the other side, in the case of a defensive action they would have to call in air support and possibly naval bombardment of coastal areas. The question here would be to bomb what? During the first minutes of a military action there is dispersal of forces and all bases are empty and basically useless as targets. Bombing ports and civilian targets would not offer much support to the military.

In an offensive action presumably the objectives would be to capture key poins such as ports, air ports, communications and to blockade the island, cutting off the seaway between Greece and Cyprus.

The actual situation on the ground would quickly become secondary to the international political situation that would arise. Whoever is the attacker, or is seen to be the attacker, would be quickly slapped down by powers that value stability. It is unlikely that any projection of power in international waters would be tolerated for long. Neither could the conflict be kept localised for more than a day or two before it escalates to a full confrontation between Greece and Turkey on a front stretching from Cyprus to the triple border point with Bulgaria. Whatever happens must happen in hours rather than days.

I agree with everything above Nikitas.

What you state is pure common sense.

However, I would like to also add that the GC side, at present, does not have the psychology to fight an offensive war. The capability within the CNG is certainly present, but the nation is in no condition to start anything.

The best we can expect is to maintain our defensive lines should Turkey beak the cease fire.

To start an offensive operation from our side would require many years of defense planning, mental preparation, and new weapon acquisition programs to the extent that the RoC economy must be sacrificed and bought upon its knees....a very unlikely scenario.

Suppose one side prevails, and takes over the whole island, then comes the problem of "now you got it, what are you going to do with it". Which of the two sides has the means to police hundreds of thousands of armed people who will be taking pot shots at the enemy?

Definitely not an easy one.

Let's just say that the CNG went an the offensive. At present, the best outcome would be to push the Turkish Occupation forces further back to within lets say 25%, or even 20% of Cyprus.

It is inconceivable to expect that the CNG will manage to completely defeat the TA, although I am the first to admit that anything is possible.

The CNG or Greece would be completely powerless to cut supply lines from Turkey, so it is important that some other country gets involved with the necessary naval power and capacity. We need to remember, that the HAF and HN will be preoccupied in the Aegean and Thrace, and this alone would benefit us as Turkey would be required to dedicate more assets towards the west. Having said this, Turkish reinforcements will arrive in Cyprus without intervention from another power.

The above might be desirable if the CNG is successful in forcing a Turkish retreat to within lets say 25% or even 20% or less. This in itself would be deemed a major victory.

This of course will mean that approximately 100,000 Turks will be trapped behind CNG lines. These could form an insurgency (TMT style) which would be a head ache for our conventional army. They should be encouraged and allowed to evacuate behind Turkish Lines in order to avoid this outcome.The CNG should then bunker down, and maintain defensive positions. Turkey will continue to bring in reinforcements and there will be some air bombardment. There would be very little the TA will be able to do against an army that is well dug in.

Whether an operation is deemed a military success or not, would depend on our predetermined objectives. The CNG's primary objective is defense, and at best, to commence a limited offensive resulting in a Turkish retreat and loss of territory.

Above Bafidis mentions 'They should be encouraged and allowed to evacuate behind Turkish Lines in order to avoid this outcome.The CNG '. What form would that take? I see more bloddshed in the form of massacres etc. which will lead to more reprisals.

One comment was made about bombarding army camps being useless waste of time. Bombing civilians would enable the bombing side to push the 'bombed out' civilianrefugees to jam the highways thus rendering movement of armed forces impossible (esp. in mountainous terrain). This works for both sides btw.

ffs what are we talking about here....more killing of Cypriots...FORGET IT!!

I don't think the Turks will require MUCH encouragement to leave the area!

[Paphitis]

The military conflict has some interesting points to ponder.

Seeing the situation from the point of view of the commanders of each side provides some challenges.

The National Guard has a comparatively limited objective, to recapture the north. The area is right next door, so there is no major logistical problem. The biggest problem the NG would face is preventing the air force and navy from operating, which is doable but not with current military thinking.

Inventive thinking would require preparations to deal with HARM and HOPPY weapons that the Turkish air force has, and so far there is not much preparation in that direction.

In the event of a defensive action, the NG will have the task of dealing with 400 tanks in addition to the air force and navy. Again, it is doable, on the same conditions as above. There are weapons in the arsenal of the NG right now that can deal with tanks very effectively.


Looking at the situation from the other side, in the case of a defensive action they would have to call in air support and possibly naval bombardment of coastal areas. The question here would be to bomb what? During the first minutes of a military action there is dispersal of forces and all bases are empty and basically useless as targets. Bombing ports and civilian targets would not offer much support to the military.

In an offensive action presumably the objectives would be to capture key poins such as ports, air ports, communications and to blockade the island, cutting off the seaway between Greece and Cyprus.

The actual situation on the ground would quickly become secondary to the international political situation that would arise. Whoever is the attacker, or is seen to be the attacker, would be quickly slapped down by powers that value stability. It is unlikely that any projection of power in international waters would be tolerated for long. Neither could the conflict be kept localised for more than a day or two before it escalates to a full confrontation between Greece and Turkey on a front stretching from Cyprus to the triple border point with Bulgaria. Whatever happens must happen in hours rather than days.

I agree with everything above Nikitas.

What you state is pure common sense.

However, I would like to also add that the GC side, at present, does not have the psychology to fight an offensive war. The capability within the CNG is certainly present, but the nation is in no condition to start anything.

The best we can expect is to maintain our defensive lines should Turkey beak the cease fire.

To start an offensive operation from our side would require many years of defense planning, mental preparation, and new weapon acquisition programs to the extent that the RoC economy must be sacrificed and bought upon its knees....a very unlikely scenario.

Suppose one side prevails, and takes over the whole island, then comes the problem of "now you got it, what are you going to do with it". Which of the two sides has the means to police hundreds of thousands of armed people who will be taking pot shots at the enemy?

Definitely not an easy one.

Let's just say that the CNG went an the offensive. At present, the best outcome would be to push the Turkish Occupation forces further back to within lets say 25%, or even 20% of Cyprus.

It is inconceivable to expect that the CNG will manage to completely defeat the TA, although I am the first to admit that anything is possible.

The CNG or Greece would be completely powerless to cut supply lines from Turkey, so it is important that some other country gets involved with the necessary naval power and capacity. We need to remember, that the HAF and HN will be preoccupied in the Aegean and Thrace, and this alone would benefit us as Turkey would be required to dedicate more assets towards the west. Having said this, Turkish reinforcements will arrive in Cyprus without intervention from another power.

The above might be desirable if the CNG is successful in forcing a Turkish retreat to within lets say 25% or even 20% or less. This in itself would be deemed a major victory.

This of course will mean that approximately 100,000 Turks will be trapped behind CNG lines. These could form an insurgency (TMT style) which would be a head ache for our conventional army. They should be encouraged and allowed to evacuate behind Turkish Lines in order to avoid this outcome.

The CNG should then bunker down, and maintain defensive positions. Turkey will continue to bring in reinforcements and there will be some air bombardment. There would be very little the TA will be able to do against an army that is well dug in.

Whether an operation is deemed a military success or not, would depend on our predetermined objectives. The CNG's primary objective is defense, and at best, to commence a limited offensive resulting in a Turkish retreat and loss of territory.

Bloody brilliant! If you think the Turks would confine their targets to military ones you must be mad. They would almost certainly target power stations, de-salination plants, radio and TV stations, ports and even the dams. I doubt if any cargo ships would would attempt to get past a blockade. Whatever the immediate outcome of a war on the island the economy would be smashed to pieces and if the Greek Cypriots were seen as the instigators of the conflict I doubt if they would get an much help from the EU. Turkish "pride" would never allow it to be beaten by the GCs, eventually they would take the whole island even if it meant a re-invasion.

And.....

So what?

Of course they will target our infrastructure.

But so would Greece and Cyprus.

Such a war can only ever last for 2-3 days max. Before you know it, NATO, US and EU will get involved, and a new cease fire could be negotiated. Turkey would be powerless to do anything if the CNG met its objective of causing a retreat.

The US 6th Fleet, will prevent an escalating war between Turkey and Greece, because that is not in their interest!

LIKE THEY DID IN 1974 AND CYPRUS HAS BEEN DIVIDED .SINCE .

What Bafidi cares is to retreat TCs and Turks to 20%-25% of Cyprus... he does not care whether it would cause thousands of human losses and billions of economic loss. A pure idiot!

Why would I care?

Thousands would not be killed as there would never be enough time, and if it costs a few billion, it is just a drop in the ocean when compared to the illegal occupation of 37% and what that means to the RoC economy over a few decades.

Your the one asking for possible realistic scenarios, and I gave you one. Don't blame me!

[insan]

The military conflict has some interesting points to ponder.

Seeing the situation from the point of view of the commanders of each side provides some challenges.

The National Guard has a comparatively limited objective, to recapture the north. The area is right next door, so there is no major logistical problem. The biggest problem the NG would face is preventing the air force and navy from operating, which is doable but not with current military thinking.

Inventive thinking would require preparations to deal with HARM and HOPPY weapons that the Turkish air force has, and so far there is not much preparation in that direction.

In the event of a defensive action, the NG will have the task of dealing with 400 tanks in addition to the air force and navy. Again, it is doable, on the same conditions as above. There are weapons in the arsenal of the NG right now that can deal with tanks very effectively.


Looking at the situation from the other side, in the case of a defensive action they would have to call in air support and possibly naval bombardment of coastal areas. The question here would be to bomb what? During the first minutes of a military action there is dispersal of forces and all bases are empty and basically useless as targets. Bombing ports and civilian targets would not offer much support to the military.

In an offensive action presumably the objectives would be to capture key poins such as ports, air ports, communications and to blockade the island, cutting off the seaway between Greece and Cyprus.

The actual situation on the ground would quickly become secondary to the international political situation that would arise. Whoever is the attacker, or is seen to be the attacker, would be quickly slapped down by powers that value stability. It is unlikely that any projection of power in international waters would be tolerated for long. Neither could the conflict be kept localised for more than a day or two before it escalates to a full confrontation between Greece and Turkey on a front stretching from Cyprus to the triple border point with Bulgaria. Whatever happens must happen in hours rather than days.

I agree with everything above Nikitas.

What you state is pure common sense.

However, I would like to also add that the GC side, at present, does not have the psychology to fight an offensive war. The capability within the CNG is certainly present, but the nation is in no condition to start anything.

The best we can expect is to maintain our defensive lines should Turkey beak the cease fire.

To start an offensive operation from our side would require many years of defense planning, mental preparation, and new weapon acquisition programs to the extent that the RoC economy must be sacrificed and bought upon its knees....a very unlikely scenario.

Suppose one side prevails, and takes over the whole island, then comes the problem of "now you got it, what are you going to do with it". Which of the two sides has the means to police hundreds of thousands of armed people who will be taking pot shots at the enemy?

Definitely not an easy one.

Let's just say that the CNG went an the offensive. At present, the best outcome would be to push the Turkish Occupation forces further back to within lets say 25%, or even 20% of Cyprus.

It is inconceivable to expect that the CNG will manage to completely defeat the TA, although I am the first to admit that anything is possible.

The CNG or Greece would be completely powerless to cut supply lines from Turkey, so it is important that some other country gets involved with the necessary naval power and capacity. We need to remember, that the HAF and HN will be preoccupied in the Aegean and Thrace, and this alone would benefit us as Turkey would be required to dedicate more assets towards the west. Having said this, Turkish reinforcements will arrive in Cyprus without intervention from another power.

The above might be desirable if the CNG is successful in forcing a Turkish retreat to within lets say 25% or even 20% or less. This in itself would be deemed a major victory.

This of course will mean that approximately 100,000 Turks will be trapped behind CNG lines. These could form an insurgency (TMT style) which would be a head ache for our conventional army. They should be encouraged and allowed to evacuate behind Turkish Lines in order to avoid this outcome.

The CNG should then bunker down, and maintain defensive positions. Turkey will continue to bring in reinforcements and there will be some air bombardment. There would be very little the TA will be able to do against an army that is well dug in.

Whether an operation is deemed a military success or not, would depend on our predetermined objectives. The CNG's primary objective is defense, and at best, to commence a limited offensive resulting in a Turkish retreat and loss of territory.

Bloody brilliant! If you think the Turks would confine their targets to military ones you must be mad. They would almost certainly target power stations, de-salination plants, radio and TV stations, ports and even the dams. I doubt if any cargo ships would would attempt to get past a blockade. Whatever the immediate outcome of a war on the island the economy would be smashed to pieces and if the Greek Cypriots were seen as the instigators of the conflict I doubt if they would get an much help from the EU. Turkish "pride" would never allow it to be beaten by the GCs, eventually they would take the whole island even if it meant a re-invasion.

And.....

So what?

Of course they will target our infrastructure.

But so would Greece and Cyprus.

Such a war can only ever last for 2-3 days max. Before you know it, NATO, US and EU will get involved, and a new cease fire could be negotiated. Turkey would be powerless to do anything if the CNG met its objective of causing a retreat.

The US 6th Fleet, will prevent an escalating war between Turkey and Greece, because that is not in their interest!

LIKE THEY DID IN 1974 AND CYPRUS HAS BEEN DIVIDED .SINCE .

What Bafidi cares is to retreat TCs and Turks to 20%-25% of Cyprus... he does not care whether it would cause thousands of human losses and billions of economic loss. A pure idiot!

Why would I care?

Thousands would not be killed as there would never be enough time, and if it costs a few billion, it is just a drop in the ocean when compared to the illegal occupation of 37% and what that means to the RoC economy over a few decades.

Your the one asking for possible realistic scenarios, and I gave you one. Don't blame me!

Yes. Thx for ur honest contribution... what I was angry with is ur mentality that for the sake of getting 10% more land under control of so-called RoC u r willing to sacrifice the lives of thousands of Cypriots and multi-billions worth economic loss...

[Paphitis]

The military conflict has some interesting points to ponder.

Seeing the situation from the point of view of the commanders of each side provides some challenges.

The National Guard has a comparatively limited objective, to recapture the north. The area is right next door, so there is no major logistical problem. The biggest problem the NG would face is preventing the air force and navy from operating, which is doable but not with current military thinking.

Inventive thinking would require preparations to deal with HARM and HOPPY weapons that the Turkish air force has, and so far there is not much preparation in that direction.

In the event of a defensive action, the NG will have the task of dealing with 400 tanks in addition to the air force and navy. Again, it is doable, on the same conditions as above. There are weapons in the arsenal of the NG right now that can deal with tanks very effectively.


Looking at the situation from the other side, in the case of a defensive action they would have to call in air support and possibly naval bombardment of coastal areas. The question here would be to bomb what? During the first minutes of a military action there is dispersal of forces and all bases are empty and basically useless as targets. Bombing ports and civilian targets would not offer much support to the military.

In an offensive action presumably the objectives would be to capture key poins such as ports, air ports, communications and to blockade the island, cutting off the seaway between Greece and Cyprus.

The actual situation on the ground would quickly become secondary to the international political situation that would arise. Whoever is the attacker, or is seen to be the attacker, would be quickly slapped down by powers that value stability. It is unlikely that any projection of power in international waters would be tolerated for long. Neither could the conflict be kept localised for more than a day or two before it escalates to a full confrontation between Greece and Turkey on a front stretching from Cyprus to the triple border point with Bulgaria. Whatever happens must happen in hours rather than days.

I agree with everything above Nikitas.

What you state is pure common sense.

However, I would like to also add that the GC side, at present, does not have the psychology to fight an offensive war. The capability within the CNG is certainly present, but the nation is in no condition to start anything.

The best we can expect is to maintain our defensive lines should Turkey beak the cease fire.

To start an offensive operation from our side would require many years of defense planning, mental preparation, and new weapon acquisition programs to the extent that the RoC economy must be sacrificed and bought upon its knees....a very unlikely scenario.

Suppose one side prevails, and takes over the whole island, then comes the problem of "now you got it, what are you going to do with it". Which of the two sides has the means to police hundreds of thousands of armed people who will be taking pot shots at the enemy?

Definitely not an easy one.

Let's just say that the CNG went an the offensive. At present, the best outcome would be to push the Turkish Occupation forces further back to within lets say 25%, or even 20% of Cyprus.

It is inconceivable to expect that the CNG will manage to completely defeat the TA, although I am the first to admit that anything is possible.

The CNG or Greece would be completely powerless to cut supply lines from Turkey, so it is important that some other country gets involved with the necessary naval power and capacity. We need to remember, that the HAF and HN will be preoccupied in the Aegean and Thrace, and this alone would benefit us as Turkey would be required to dedicate more assets towards the west. Having said this, Turkish reinforcements will arrive in Cyprus without intervention from another power.

The above might be desirable if the CNG is successful in forcing a Turkish retreat to within lets say 25% or even 20% or less. This in itself would be deemed a major victory.

This of course will mean that approximately 100,000 Turks will be trapped behind CNG lines. These could form an insurgency (TMT style) which would be a head ache for our conventional army. They should be encouraged and allowed to evacuate behind Turkish Lines in order to avoid this outcome.

The CNG should then bunker down, and maintain defensive positions. Turkey will continue to bring in reinforcements and there will be some air bombardment. There would be very little the TA will be able to do against an army that is well dug in.

Whether an operation is deemed a military success or not, would depend on our predetermined objectives. The CNG's primary objective is defense, and at best, to commence a limited offensive resulting in a Turkish retreat and loss of territory.

Bloody brilliant! If you think the Turks would confine their targets to military ones you must be mad. They would almost certainly target power stations, de-salination plants, radio and TV stations, ports and even the dams. I doubt if any cargo ships would would attempt to get past a blockade. Whatever the immediate outcome of a war on the island the economy would be smashed to pieces and if the Greek Cypriots were seen as the instigators of the conflict I doubt if they would get an much help from the EU. Turkish "pride" would never allow it to be beaten by the GCs, eventually they would take the whole island even if it meant a re-invasion.

And.....

So what?

Of course they will target our infrastructure.

But so would Greece and Cyprus.

Such a war can only ever last for 2-3 days max. Before you know it, NATO, US and EU will get involved, and a new cease fire could be negotiated. Turkey would be powerless to do anything if the CNG met its objective of causing a retreat.

The US 6th Fleet, will prevent an escalating war between Turkey and Greece, because that is not in their interest!

LIKE THEY DID IN 1974 AND CYPRUS HAS BEEN DIVIDED .SINCE .

What Bafidi cares is to retreat TCs and Turks to 20%-25% of Cyprus... he does not care whether it would cause thousands of human losses and billions of economic loss. A pure idiot!

Why would I care?

Thousands would not be killed as there would never be enough time, and if it costs a few billion, it is just a drop in the ocean when compared to the illegal occupation of 37% and what that means to the RoC economy over a few decades.

Your the one asking for possible realistic scenarios, and I gave you one. Don't blame me!

Yes. Thx for ur honest contribution... what I was angry with is ur mentality that for the sake of getting 10% more land under control of so-called RoC u r willing to sacrifice the lives of thousands of Cypriots and multi-billions worth economic loss...

This is just the mentality of a military mind. There are objectives which must be met, and whilst it might not be pretty, it is just the way it is.

But what you say is no different to what Turkey has done. Turkey killed thousands and ethnically cleansed 200,000 to gain 35%.

A 3 day war effort would not likely kill thousands....maybe a few hundred.

Committing to 10% as an objective is clearly naive. Naturally, if it were possible, we would leave you with a mere 10%, but at some point the GC side would need to stop and assist in the evacuation of Turks in order to avoid an insurgency.

Taking the whole island however, would be madness, because any insurgency can prove disastrous.

[Jerry]

Go back to your wet dreams Paphitis. The British forces are not what they were in 1974 and in case you forgot they are busy and stretched elsewhere. Do you honestly believe the Turks would take notice of anybody after the the NG gave them a kicking. Turkey is a law unto itself, it won't even allow its ports open to Cypriot ships and it refused the US permission to use its territory to invade Iraq. I'm sure emergency aid would be forthcoming but that is not the same as rebuilding the infrastructure. The economy of the ROC would be wrecked for decades, the new Green Line would become red hot and thousands could be killed. If you think that is a price worth paying to regain half of the occupied territory you must stark raving mad.

Hysterically yours, Jerry

[Paphitis]

Go back to your wet dreams Paphitis. The British forces are not what they were in 1974 and in case you forgot they are busy and stretched elsewhere. Do you honestly believe the Turks would take notice of anybody after the the NG gave them a kicking. Turkey is a law unto itself, it won't even allow its ports open to Cypriot ships and it refused the US permission to use its territory to invade Iraq. I'm sure emergency aid would be forthcoming but that is not the same as rebuilding the infrastructure. The economy of the ROC would be wrecked for decades, the new Green Line would become red hot and thousands could be killed. If you think that is a price worth paying to regain half of the occupied territory you must stark raving mad.

Hysterically yours, Jerry

I made no mention of any British forces.

Britain would just defend its SBA's and even if it is not capable of doing that, you will find that the Gurkhas, Australians and Canadians would be deployed to achieve this objective because the SBA's serve a rather vital purpose for those countries. The US may also deploy...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Echelon_%2 ... ligence%29

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ayios_Nikolaos_Station

And yes, those countries will attack if the SBA's come to any danger and that is a fact.

In 74, Gallagher was rather livid because the TA went beyond the predetermined occupation lines. The British were even planning to attack Turkish positions at Dhekelia, and informed the Americans. Kissinger, prevented that from happening.

The above is quite sad for me, because if the Americans did not get involved, Turkish and Australian troops would have engaged each other for the first time since 1916....