Cyprus-Forum.com

[Kuruovali]

I've been reading everyones contribution to this thread and I'm now getting a bit bored with all this war talk. Having superior equipment and training is an essential part and gaining the upper hand but history has shown us (WW2 Germany attack on Russia, USA in Vietnam, more recently the West in Afganistan??) that this does not necessarily put you in a win situation.

In many cases it comes down to who wants it most and ultimately who is prepared to give up their lives for the cause and I think this will be the deciding factor. One thing that I can say for certain is that the Turks care more for their flag then their family and it is this that will drive them to victory. In Korea the Turkish brigade won many pludits for their performance against the enemy which vastly outnumbered them (google and you'll find out). This was against an enemy which posed no direct threat to Turkey or any of its people. So you can only imagine their motivations when defending their interest in North Cyprus.

I'll let you ponder on that...

K

[Oracle]

I think the GCs (with the backing of the EU) attacking the occupied territory have a greater chance of achieving their objective than a defending foreign army, demoralised by years of prevaricating and holding on to ... what? ... holding on to a bit of soil for a bunch of ungrateful TCs whose dialect they look down on and whose customs they find unsavoury .....

[Simon]

I've been reading everyones contribution to this thread and I'm now getting a bit bored with all this war talk. Having superior equipment and training is an essential part and gaining the upper hand but history has shown us (WW2 Germany attack on Russia, USA in Vietnam, more recently the West in Afganistan??) that this does not necessarily put you in a win situation.

In many cases it comes down to who wants it most and ultimately who is prepared to give up their lives for the cause and I think this will be the deciding factor. One thing that I can say for certain is that the Turks care more for their flag then their family and it is this that will drive them to victory. In Korea the Turkish brigade won many pludits for their performance against the enemy which vastly outnumbered them (google and you'll find out). This was against an enemy which posed no direct threat to Turkey or any of its people. So you can only imagine their motivations when defending their interest in North Cyprus.

I'll let you ponder on that...

K

I agree that in many cases it does come down to who wants it most. The GCs will be fighting for their very survival on home soil. The Turkish Army won't. I'll let you ponder that...

[Paphitis]

Jerry,

I think you have bought into the Turkish myth unfortunately.

The British Armed Forces are more than capable of removing the Turks from Cyprus single-handedly, let alone merely defending the bases! And it wouldn't need any help from the Australians or anybody else for that matter, despite what Paphitis is dreaming.

The Royal Navy is capable of completely cutting off Turkish supplies from the mainland (The Turkish Navy would simply be unable to cope with the British Nuclear Submarines (Trafalgar class (soon to be replaced by the Astute class)), which are undetectable and have the most advanced sonar system in the world. Further, Turkey would not have complete air supremacy either, as Britain has the RAF bases and aircraft carriers would be moved into the region. The British are armed with Tomahawk and Storm Shadow missiles, which means that the British would be able to attack Turkish cities and destroy infrastructure at will. Not forgetting the nuclear option that Britain has from the Vanguard class.

This leaves the land war. The British Army is far superior in training and equipment to the TA. The Parachute Regiment (part of 16 Air Assault Brigade) Royal Marine Commandos, SAS, SBS, Gurkhas, Black Watch, Royal Welsh Guards etc, these are some of the best troops in the world. With the GC National Guard behind them, it would probably only need about 10,000 British troops (+90,000 NG) to completely wipe the Turks out. Remembering that this time Turkey would not be able to re-supply.

Please do not be fooled into thinking the British can't do anything because of Afghanistan. Those bases are crucial to UK-US interests, and if those bases came under attack, the British would defend them. That you can be certain of. The Argentinians tried to call Britain's bluff in 1982, and look what happened.

Oh btw Simon. This is just a very small point, but I seem to recall us discussing Australia's future Aircraft Carriers.

The fact remains that they are classified as Helicopter Docks because the Australian Government did not want them to be classified as Aircraft Carriers to satisfy the defense budget slashing advocates that create much noise.

It was however a requirement that the design be easily modified so that the ships can be easily upgraded to accept STOVL and VTOL aircraft.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canberra_c ... opter_Dock

The above is no different to the Royal Navy commissioning the Invincible Class as "cruisers" and later modified with a ski jump and then classed as Aircraft Carriers.

Finally, in May 1975, the Government authorised the maritime version of the Hawker Siddeley Harrier,[1][3] which was successfully developed into the Sea Harrier. This meant that the design was reworked again to include a small complement of these VTOL aircraft. In order to launch a heavily-laden Harrier more efficiently by STOVL (short take-off vertical landing) from the comparatively short - 170 m - flight deck, a 'ski-jump' was developed. The slope was initially 7° when incorporated into Invincible and Illustrious and 12° for Ark Royal. The class also has, since 1976,[1] a secondary role as an helicopter carrier, or LPH, in the reinforcement of NATO's Northern flank in Norway. In 1998 HMS Ocean, with a hull form based on that of the Invincible class, was commissioned specifically for this role.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invincible ... ft_carrier

The Canberra Class are not classified as Aircraft carriers, but will have a Ski Jump and the radar will be fitted down the track. It is likely that the F-35B will operate from the Canberra Class as well as helicopters.

This is why the ships have a very obvious Ski Jump (for aircraft).

Paphitis, I agree with you that the Canberra class are Helicopter Landing Docks that have the potential to be upgraded to light aircraft carriers in the future. I am all for Australia having a strong military and power projection capabilities, as Australia and the UK are close allies within the Anglosphere. I like you have dreams that one day the UK (along with allies) will use the bases to liberate Cyprus, although I know that the chances of this happening are virtually nil.

They will be commissioned as Helicopter Docks and then immediately upgraded to carriers. This way, the Australian Government can get its 2-3 Aircraft Carriers without any public backlash. This is exactly what happened with the Invincible as the design had initially classified this class as "cruisers".

As for the above, it would totally depend on how things pan out. Things change all the time. Its only a matter of time before Turkey pisses someone off, and then anything is possible. Oil and Gas interests will also play a huge role as it did in Timor. But for that, Cyprus will need to play its hand.

Turkey was not very popular within the Bush administration, due to Iraq, and we failed to capitalise on that.

[YFred]

I've been reading everyones contribution to this thread and I'm now getting a bit bored with all this war talk. Having superior equipment and training is an essential part and gaining the upper hand but history has shown us (WW2 Germany attack on Russia, USA in Vietnam, more recently the West in Afganistan??) that this does not necessarily put you in a win situation.

In many cases it comes down to who wants it most and ultimately who is prepared to give up their lives for the cause and I think this will be the deciding factor. One thing that I can say for certain is that the Turks care more for their flag then their family and it is this that will drive them to victory. In Korea the Turkish brigade won many pludits for their performance against the enemy which vastly outnumbered them (google and you'll find out). This was against an enemy which posed no direct threat to Turkey or any of its people. So you can only imagine their motivations when defending their interest in North Cyprus.

I'll let you ponder on that...

K

K, no don't encourage them to ponder, let them wallow in the crap pond that they are perpetuating, they are happy little bunnies then.

[Get Real!]

One thing that I can say for certain is that the Turks care more for their flag then their family and it is this that will drive them to victory.

I’m happy for them but the mistake you’re making is that Turkey’s flag has no place on Cyprus!

Ponder first post later…

[Get Real!]

It’s good for the CNG that Turkey overestimates her military prowess to the point where she even thinks she’s a “world power”… because such firmly embedded delusions as those of the Turkish public, quickly work against you when war breaks out and the reality that you’re not the US-Airforce, the US-Army, or the US-Navy hits home!

In fact, Turkey would be expected to wrap it all up within a few days; the Turkish public even expect a couple of days, but of course destroying the 1,000+ military vehicles of the NG alone could not possibly be accomplished in a whole month even if they were parked motionless for target practice… let alone move around and fire back at you while dodging SAMs!

Would Turkey’s certain failure to wrap it all up in a few days be sufficient to topple the Turkish government and cause widespread disarray in Turkey?

Could Turkey regionally recover from an inability to deliver such high expectations?

And what would happen to the already dwindled “Turkish Cypriot community” who are the core of the Cyprus problem and sitting right in the middle of such a confrontation? Would they survive and continue “Talks” post-war as before?

[Gregory]

It’s good for the CNG that Turkey overestimates her military prowess to the point where she even thinks she’s a “world power”… because such firmly embedded delusions as those of the Turkish public, quickly work against you when war breaks out and the reality that you’re not the US-Airforce, the US-Army, or the US-Navy hits home!

In fact, Turkey would be expected to wrap it all up within a few days; the Turkish public even expect a couple of days, but of course destroying the 1,000+ military vehicles of the NG alone could not possibly be accomplished in a whole month even if they were parked motionless for target practice… let alone move around and fire back at you while dodging SAMs!

Would Turkey’s certain failure to wrap it all up in a few days be sufficient to topple the Turkish government and cause widespread disarray in Turkey?

Could Turkey regionally recover from an inability to deliver such high expectations?

And what would happen to the already dwindled “Turkish Cypriot community” who are the core of the Cyprus problem and sitting right in the middle of such a confrontation? Would they survive and continue “Talks” post-war as before?

lets not forget the CNN footage of the 2012 EU Presidency capital being bombed by crescent flying warplanes.

Thats enough to give Merkl a stiffy, never mind Sarkozy.

[Paphitis]

It’s good for the CNG that Turkey overestimates her military prowess to the point where she even thinks she’s a “world power”… because such firmly embedded delusions as those of the Turkish public, quickly work against you when war breaks out and the reality that you’re not the US-Airforce, the US-Army, or the US-Navy hits home!

In fact, Turkey would be expected to wrap it all up within a few days; the Turkish public even expect a couple of days, but of course destroying the 1,000+ military vehicles of the NG alone could not possibly be accomplished in a whole month even if they were parked motionless for target practice… let alone move around and fire back at you while dodging SAMs!

Would Turkey’s certain failure to wrap it all up in a few days be sufficient to topple the Turkish government and cause widespread disarray in Turkey?

Could Turkey regionally recover from an inability to deliver such high expectations?

And what would happen to the already dwindled “Turkish Cypriot community” who are the core of the Cyprus problem and sitting right in the middle of such a confrontation? Would they survive and continue “Talks” post-war as before?

lets not forget the CNN footage of the 2012 EU Presidency capital being bombed by crescent flying warplanes.

Thats enough to give Merkl a stiffy, never mind Sarkozy.

All in all, Turkey has some deluded fantasies about their military capability and they would be in for a very rude shock...

And I doubt Cyprus will be left out in the cold next time round.

The CNG liberating some territory whilst still maintaining de jure legitimacy over the remaining occupied lands is a distinct possibility which would mean that any future negotiations will be on a more level playing field.

All we would need is for Greece to achieve a military victory in the Aegean, and Turkey will implode. And a Greek victory in the Aegean is not at all far fetched.

Papandreou's election should cause a stir. His father knew exactly how to treat the Turks, so let's hope the apple has not fallen far from the tree.

[Get Real!]

Would widespread protests erupt in Greece calling on the Greek government to assist the CNG?

Would the US have no option but to order Turkey off Cyprus to save NATO from seeming disintegration?

Could Turkey ever aspire to join Europe after a military confrontation with an EU member which sought to recover her territorial rights in line with international law?

These are some of the dynamics that a Cyprus Vs Turkey war scenario can and will most likely bring, so the notion that it’s just a simple case of a “big boy” slapping a “small boy” is very short sighted.