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[EPSILON]

Turkey and the Kurds

Peace time?
Aug 27th 2009 | BATMAN AND DIYARBAKIR
From The Economist print edition

The Turkish government is preparing a serious plan to settle its Kurdish problem

ON MAY 1st 1920 Kemal Ataturk, father of modern Turkey, told the fledgling parliament that “north of Kirkuk there are Kurds as there are Turks, and we never discriminated against them.” Yet for most of the past 80 years those of Turkey’s 14m-odd Kurds who dared publicly to identify themselves as such have been brutally repressed, kicked out of their villages, tortured, jailed or killed.

The Kurds have fought back in rebellion after rebellion. None so violent or so long as that launched in 1984 by the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Over 40,000 people, many of them PKK fighters, have died in a terrorist campaign that has cost the state billions of dollars, blotted its international image, and stymied Turkey’s efforts to become a full-fledged democracy.

Successive governments have mumbled about dealing with the Kurdish problem, only to be stopped by Turkey’s hawkish generals. But now a confluence of circumstances is raising hopes of a more lasting solution under the leadership of Turkey’s prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has staked his political future on this issue.

In a ground-breaking speech in parliament earlier this month, Mr Erdogan provoked tears when he spoke of the common pain of Turkish and Kurdish mothers who had lost sons in the conflict. His interior minister, Besir Atalay, has been making the rounds of assorted politicians and civic leaders to build consensus for an as yet unarticulated plan. Mr Erdogan, who has long shunned the largest Kurdish party, the Democratic Society (DTP), for being the PKK’s political front, met its leader, Ahmet Turk, in early August.

The government’s plan is said to include easing remaining bans on Kurdish broadcasting, allowing Turkified villages to regain their Kurdish names, setting up Kurdish language and literature departments in universities and scrapping laws under which thousands of young Kurds are jailed for allegedly acting for the PKK (usually for no more than chanting PKK slogans or throwing stones at police). “This time the government means real business,” concludes Henri Barkey, an American academic who has studied the Kurds.

In the largely Kurdish city of Batman, Mufide Agaya, whose son is among thousands of Kurds who went missing at the height of the conflict in the mid-1990s, agrees. “I now have hope that, dead or alive, I will recover my boy.” Local prosecutors have been unearthing the remains of victims of the once rampant “mystery murders” carried out by rogue members of the security forces. In Diyarbakir, the de facto capital of the Kurdish region, where prison inmates were once force-fed their own excrement, banners reading “Qirej Nekin” (Kurdish for “don’t litter”) line the streets. Once officials would have been jailed just for putting them up.

The trickiest part of Mr Erdogan’s “Kurdish overture” is how to get the PKK to stop fighting without negotiating with their imprisoned leader, Abdullah Ocalan, who continues to hold sway over both his men and millions of ordinary Kurds. The main opposition parties have already blasted Mr Erdogan for alleged treason. The obvious way out would be to use the DTP as a proxy, rather as Britain used Sinn Fein to deal with the IRA. The trouble is that the notoriously egocentric Mr Ocalan cannot bear to remain out of the limelight. He now says he will unveil his own road map for peace. Although recent opinion polls show 45% of Turks supporting Mr Erdogan’s Kurdish overture, a deal that followed overt bargaining with the PKK would be tricky to sell at home.

At least this time the army is behind the government. The chief of the general staff, Ilker Basbug, has grumbled about undermining the “unitary state” and injecting ethnicity into the constitution. But a string of leaks about attempted coups and botched operations against the PKK have dented the generals’ image. Many of those most likely to torpedo a Kurdish deal are being prosecuted in the Ergenekon case against an alleged network of anti-government plotters. General Basbug has long conceded that military means alone cannot solve the Kurdish problem.

The withdrawal of American troops from Iraq could also work in favour of peace. As their American mentors leave, the Iraqi Kurds are turning to Turkey for protection. In exchange they seem willing to limit the movements of some 3,000-5,000 PKK fighters based in their region and to help disarm and repatriate them to Turkey under a proposed amnesty.

More than Mr Erdogan’s career is at stake. So is Turkey’s future. A new generation of dissatisfied and radical Kurds could easily unleash a cycle of violence that even the PKK might be unable to control. What is most heartening is that the Kurdish initiative is not merely about responding to European Union pressure: it is a home-grown affair. And the onus is as much on the PKK and its allies as on the government to ensure that it succeeds. It will not be easy, but Mr Erdogan seems determined to plough on. If he succeeds, says Sezgin Tanrikulu, a human-rights lawyer in Diyarbakir, the Kurds will flock to back him—and Ataturk’s words will no longer ring so hollow.

[Tim Drayton]

Some people believe that Obama is the unseen architect behind Turkey's recent "Kurdish initiative" (long overdue in my opinion), and that the reasons are twofold:

1- To prepare the way for American withdrawal from Iraq without causing instability in the region, and

2- To remove one of the major sticking points in Turkey's EU accession process.

[EPSILON]

Some people believe that Obama is the unseen architect behind Turkey's recent "Kurdish initiative" (long overdue in my opinion), and that the reasons are twofold:

1- To prepare the way for American withdrawal from Iraq without causing instability in the region, and

2- To remove one of the major sticking points in Turkey's EU accession process.

Despite actual reasons and strageties, succeeding peace in the area will the one to count finally

[Tim Drayton]

There was a demonstration yesterday in the mainly Kurdish city of Diyarbakır in qualified support of the Turkish government's 'Kurdish initiative'. Watch this space. I believe that we are close to a solution of the Kurdish problem in Turkey, and this will have wide geopolitical ramifications for the whole region.

PS The banners shown in the picture are in the Kurdish language. This would have been impossible 2-3 years ago in Turkey.

[Jerry]

It all sounds like a not very subtle way of increasing Turkey's influence over northern Iraq, a gift from Obama and a get out of Iraq card for the American forces. This may be the real reason why the army are not against it. What a pity Obama couldn't tie up this deal with the Cyprus problem or does he intend to "gift" the "trnc" to Turkey.

[Tim Drayton]

I think it is worth paying some attention to the following views of respected political observor and columnist, Fikret Bila, which were published in the Turkish Millyet newspaper on 16 August.

The ‘Kurdish Initiative’s external dimension

It is a matter of great interest as to when the ‘Kurdish Initiative’ package will be opened. As the contents are for the time being unknown, the debate continues on an ‘if…, if …’ basis.

Prime-Minister Tayyip Erdoğan has for the first time answered the question ‘when’. He has said, “We do not have time to wait until the new year to announce the contents.” This means that the contents will be announced before the new year. There is no time to wait until the new year. No light has been shed on precisely why there is no time to wait until the new year. It is apparent that there are factors which impose a certain time limit on the government.


Obama’s recommendations

The internal dynamics of the ‘Kurdish Initiative’ are being discussed, but not a great deal of attention is being devoted to its external dimension. In fact, the timing of the commencement of this process was noteworthy.

Ankara has more or less simultaneously accelerated its endeavours in connection with Armenia, the Kurdish question and minorities’ religious demands.

There is a visible parallel between this acceleration in Ankara and US President Barack Obama’s Ankara visit.

Just as Obama pledged before his election, he has announced that there will be a phased withdrawal from Iraq. President Obama made a speech to the Turkish National Assembly during his Ankara visit. In that speech, he had three recommendations for Ankara:

1- Solve the problems with Armenia.
2- Find a solution to the Kurdish problem.
3- Open the Heybeliada/Halki Seminary.

Ankara has rapidly brought these three matters onto the agenda and has rapidly launched initiatives. For a while, President Abdullah Gül’s efforts, which he undertook as a matter of priority, to normalise relations with Armenia were the first item on the agenda. This issue, while not as hot as it was, has been kept on the boil.

With a speed that one could virtually describe as simultaneity, the Heybeliada/Halki Seminary, minority demands and the Kurdish problem have been placed in the top three slots on the agenda.

The government has prioritised the Kurdish question and initiated the process of debate. Prime-Minister Tayyip Erdoğan has rapidly distanced himself from the nationalist discourse which he used in the South East as recently as prior to the local elections.

He met up with DTP (Democratic Society Party) leader Ahmet Türk, with whom he had said, “I will not negotiate.” The CHP (Republican People’s Party) and MHP (National Movement Party) have adopted positions. The process has picked up speed.

Prime-Minister Erdoğan yesterday convened with minority leaders on Büyükada. In the quest for formulae to open the Heybeliada/Halki Seminary, the minority leaders’ remaining problems were discussed.

To say that there is no connection between these developments and US President Obama’s Ankara visit and plans to withdraw from Iraq would be to disguise the truth.

It has by now become apparent that President Abdullah Gül, with his ‘historic opportunity’ rhetoric, is making reference to the US withdrawal and the conditions that will subsequently come about.

National interests

In examining the ‘Kurdish Initiative’s external dimension, the emphasis must without doubt be placed on Turkey’s national interests. In the course of the US occupation of Iraq there was a clash of national interests between the USA and Turkey; and efforts to bury the hatchet formed the basis for very hard and protracted negotiations. At the end of the day, the 1 March Parliamentary Note by means of which it was hoped to bury the hatchet failed to gain the approval of the Turkish National Assembly and relations broke down.

Today different conditions prevail. The USA may consider that its interests would be better served by preventing a potential Arab-Kurdish conflict on its withdrawal from Iraq and by keeping Turkey close to the US-North Iraq front rather than supporting the Arab front against the North Iraq Kurdish Administration.

In order to keep Turkey on this course, it may have recommended that the PKK be rendered ineffective in North Iraq on ‘certain conditions’. The precise conditions that were imposed to this end are important. An examination of the current state of play and the ‘Kurdish Initiative’ that the government has suddenly accelerated reveals that Ankara may have been requested to take certain inward-looking steps in this regard and to take measures that will satisfy the expectations of the DTP-PKK axis.

The point that merits attention in this process is that the USA will continue to support the North Iraq Kurdish Administration and will not entirely vacate this region.

Ankara must act on the basis of long-term and national interests and, staying abreast of fluctuating circumstances, must not commit grave errors which will be hard to put right.

(My translation)

[Jerry]

So, having "sorted" the Turkey - Kurdish - northern Iraq problem will Obama now set his sights on Cyprus in order to facilitate Turkey's EU bid? If nothing else this deal reinforces my befief that the US has always been the key to solving the Cyprus problem, one wonders why it hasn't bothered to intervene before.

[YFred]

Where are those doomsday scenario boys predicting the end of Turkish American relations and the imminent collapse of Turkey? Hope they haven’t gone underground.

[Tim Drayton]

So, having "sorted" the Turkey - Kurdish - northern Iraq problem will Obama now set his sights on Cyprus in order to facilitate Turkey's EU bid? If nothing else this deal reinforces my befief that the US has always been the key to solving the Cyprus problem, one wonders why it hasn't bothered to intervene before.

It troubles me that Cyprus is not on the list of "things to do". I just hope the USA is not thinking of giving Turkey a few "sweeteners" so that it will cooperate on other matters.

[YFred]

So, having "sorted" the Turkey - Kurdish - northern Iraq problem will Obama now set his sights on Cyprus in order to facilitate Turkey's EU bid? If nothing else this deal reinforces my befief that the US has always been the key to solving the Cyprus problem, one wonders why it hasn't bothered to intervene before.

It troubles me that Cyprus is not on the list of "things to do". I just hope the USA is not thinking of giving Turkey a few "sweeteners" so that it will cooperate on other matters.

What's wrong with a few sweeteners , so long as it includes Cyprus?