Paphitis wrote:Tony-4497 wrote:Christofias initially said Yes to the AP - then turned that to "Yes - subject to implementation gurantees" and then "No - to cement the Yes" after he realised there was no chance people would vote for it even if AKEL said Yes.
Fundamentally he is a bigger fan of the AP than Anastasiades - his dishonesty is what enabled him to become President.
Accordingly, and given that Turkey (i.e. the real counterparty) still supports the AP, there is absolutely no reason for not reaching agreement - apart from the need to "sell" this to the GC public (in the words of the British HC.
The so-called tough negotiations are a joke performance designed to convince GCs that the new plan will be somewhat better. Combined with this will increasingly be statements similar to the one above (i.e. we made mistakes too, so we deserve to lose half our country..), together with "education" of the GC public by controlled media and journalists of the calibre of Eirini Haralambidou.. and removing any kind of resistance from schools, the army etc.. all to help GCs swallow the pill.
The solution will be effectively the AP with a minor improvements in some areas designed to "impress the GCs" and help Christofias claim victory. AKEL and DISY (who together took more than 70% at the last elections) will strongly support Yes. There will also be clear threats from various countries that they will recognise TRNC if GCs say No.
If on the basis of the above a marginal Yes is obtained, Christofias will have achieved his goal and probably receive a Nobel peace prize (per Politis).
There is one glaring flaw with your summary.
When it comes to voting on a so called "political solution" such as the Annan Plan, people WILL NOT vote along party lines....
Furthermore, no nation in their right mind would threaten the RoC by recognizing the "trnc" and ignore the UN resolutions...It has never hapenned in the past and it is impossible to happen in the future!
I did not suggest people would vote along party lines - I implied that after all the "work" and tricks detailed above designed to "sell" the plan to GCs, there is a chance the plan will scrape through (say 51% - not 70%).
Last time the president and the entire government engine worked for No - now it will be the other way round. Last time AKEL, whose supporters tend to follow like sheep (admittedly less so on this, but still..) said No, now they will be shouting Yes and going door-to-door to secure it..
DIKO and EDEK do not seem to realise the damage they are causing by officially supporting a Trojan Horse i.e. an AP Yes fanatic disguised into someone who is fighting it..