Cyprus-Forum.com

[yialousa1971]

Turkish threat, what now for Greece and Cyprus
Hellenic Antidote

http://hellenicantidote.blogspot.com/2009/07/turkish-threat-what-now-for-greece-and.html

Greece's recent foreign policy has assumed that by supporting Turkey's EU accession process, Turkey would change its aggressive behaviour in the Aegean and realise that a 'solution' to the Cyprus problem was in its own self-interest. Believing that brazen violations of Greek sovereignty and intransigence in Cyprus were a result of the conflict between the conservative Kemalist deep state and the 'reforming' AKP government of prime minister Recip Tayyip Erdogan, Greece and Cyprus decided it should come down on the side of Erdogan by not erecting insurmountable obstacles to Turkey's EU aspirations.

This interpretation of Turkish policy to Greece and Cyprus as being divided between hawks and doves and the expectation that Turkey's EU process would work in favour of the doves, has proved flawed. In fact, as the December review of Turkey's EU course approaches, not only has Turkey – a Turkey in which government and and deep state appear united – shown no inclination to alter its expansionist designs against Greece and Cyprus; but it has in fact stepped up its provocations and aggression.

In Cyprus, not only are there reports of huge new mosques and monuments to Mustafa Kemal being erected all over the occupied areas; but as the first round of settlement negotiations between President Christofias and Mehmet Ali Talat comes to a close, it is clear that the Turkish side continues to insist on a deal very similar to the partitionist Annan plan and, therefore, there has been zero progress on major issues related to territory, security and rights of refugees, and only limited progress on issues to do with economy and governance.

Indeed, only yesterday, Turkey's foreign minister Ahmet Davoutoglou threatened that unless a Cyprus 'solution' is reached by the end of the year, then Turkey would consider alternatives to reunification – which can only mean formal annexation of occupied Cyprus or, more likely, an increased effort to seek international recognition of the pseudo-state. In addition, Talat, leader of the pseudo-state, in Turkey this week to take instructions from his masters, emerged to say that he expected the international community to press the Greek side to make concessions and, in particular, to agree to a deadline for the negotiations, after which there should be binding arbitration in an attempt to bridge any outstanding differences, i.e. exactly the same procedure that led to the Annan plan.

Also this week, to demonstrate its determination to maintain its presence and influence in Cyprus, Turkey declared it would not countenance any solution that denied it its status as a 'guarantor' of the island's security, and to prove that it effectively regards Cyprus as an extension of Turkey, the Turkish government also despatched vessels to Cypriot territorial waters to explore for hydrocarbon deposits, declaring: 'Turkey has rights and interests there. Our intention to protect them is known by everyone.'

Vessels from the Turkish Petroleum Corporation will not only explore for oil and gas off Cyprus, but also in Greek territorial waters off Kastellorizo, as part of Turkey's continuing campaign to question Greek sovereignty in the Aegean, which is, of course, what lies behind the daily mass violation of Greek airspace by Turkish fighter jets.

Turkey's plan isn't to start a war with Greece, but to force Greece to engage in wide-ranging negotiations that would result in the partition of the Aegean. Indeed, this attempt to bully Greece into surrendering sovereignty in the Aegean was clearly articulated this week by the Turkish foreign ministry, which declared that the problems that exist between Greece and Turkey in the Aegean relate to: 'the islands, islets and rocks… not ceded to Greece by international treaties; the decision of Greece to broaden its territorial waters over six nautical miles; continental shelf; air space; the flight information region; and the demilitarization of islands; [and that these problems] can only be solved if they are handled as a whole… [and] by Greece and Turkey sitting down and talking'.

Other than the delimitation of the continental shelf, which Greece says should be resolved through recourse to the International Court of Justice, Greece rejects Turkey's definition of the issues that exist in the Aegean and argues that it cannot accept any invitation to talks that aim to overturn the status quo.

Two questions arise from Turkey's failure to conform to Greek expectations and, during the course of its EU process, give up its hostile intentions towards Greece and Cyprus.

1. Why does Turkey think it can pursue its expansionist designs and bullying tactics against Greece and Cyprus and at the same time maintain its EU accession process? The answer lies in the confidence Turkey must take from its supporters in the EU – particularly Britain and Sweden – who appear determined to protect, without reservation, Turkey's EU aspirations; from America, which continues to talk up Turkey as an emerging 'global' power; and from the confusion and inertia in Greek ranks as to how to respond to Turkey's recidivism.

2. Now that Greece and Cyprus' strategy of dealing with Turkey is unravelling, how will Hellenism respond, particularly with regards to the veto powers it holds over Turkey as it seeks to enter the EU?
Posted by John Akritas at Sunday, July 19, 2009

[Nikitas]

Forget the EU nonsense.

Territory, territory, territory is the key.Insist on an 82-18 apportioning of territory in Cyprus, it is a simple, straighforward proposition that the whole world understands. This comes first. After this we can talk about federation, confederation etc. First we deifne our respective territories. Yes, it is a painful decision etc, as if the present 37-63 deal is not!

Clarify in the most clear way possible that the British bases are on GC territory. We deal with the British. We have things to figure out with them.

Insist on separation of fortunes for the two communities. It should be obvious by now that the Turkish plans are for full control in the north, partnership in the south and control over the whole island. Put a stop to this and do it fast.

Good fences make good neighbors. And ths means stating unequivocally that the Greek side rejects any notion of joint exploration of the Aegean etc.

[YFred]

Forget the EU nonsense.

Territory, territory, territory is the key.Insist on an 82-18 apportioning of territory in Cyprus, it is a simple, straighforward proposition that the whole world understands. This comes first. After this we can talk about federation, confederation etc. First we deifne our respective territories. Yes, it is a painful decision etc, as if the present 37-63 deal is not!

Clarify in the most clear way possible that the British bases are on GC territory. We deal with the British. We have things to figure out with them.

Insist on separation of fortunes for the two communities. It should be obvious by now that the Turkish plans are for full control in the north, partnership in the south and control over the whole island. Put a stop to this and do it fast.

Good fences make good neighbors. And ths means stating unequivocally that the Greek side rejects any notion of joint exploration of the Aegean etc.

28:72 and you can have the Brits Bases. That will be nearer the mark by the end of the negotiation, give or take a percentage or two.
Then refuse that and see what happens next!

[boomerang]

Forget the EU nonsense.

Territory, territory, territory is the key.Insist on an 82-18 apportioning of territory in Cyprus, it is a simple, straighforward proposition that the whole world understands. This comes first. After this we can talk about federation, confederation etc. First we deifne our respective territories. Yes, it is a painful decision etc, as if the present 37-63 deal is not!

Clarify in the most clear way possible that the British bases are on GC territory. We deal with the British. We have things to figure out with them.

Insist on separation of fortunes for the two communities. It should be obvious by now that the Turkish plans are for full control in the north, partnership in the south and control over the whole island. Put a stop to this and do it fast.

Good fences make good neighbors. And ths means stating unequivocally that the Greek side rejects any notion of joint exploration of the Aegean etc.

28:72 and you can have the Brits Bases. That will be nearer the mark by the end of the negotiation, give or take a percentage or two.
Then refuse that and see what happens next!

so knucklehead who died and put you in charge?...

is it political or isn't...feel free to make another prediction as we can do with more laughs knucklehead...

[Nikitas]

Unfortunately the GC leaderships is all tied up in a masturbatory process and are not paying attention to the territory aspect.

The deal should have a sliding scale aspect, the more the other side emphasises separation and leans towards partition or confederation they must exchange this advantage with territory. Outright partition can be had if the territory is 15-85, confederation with 18-82, federation 25-75, and so on.

28-72 is no deal, for the simple reason that it contains no territorial adjustment, this presupposes returning the dead zone. Unless this proposal is accompanied by full property restitution then it is a non event. But the TC side, as explained by Nami in a recent interview, is that they want 29 per cent of territory with no right of property return. Anyone who agrees to such a deal is a fool.

[Jerry]

Nikitas is absolutely right on the territory issue. The 29% offer in the Annan plan was made on the basis of some GCs returning home and occupying part of that 29%. In the event of a complete break with the north no GCs would return so the ROC would expect a larger share.

Turkey does not give a shit about the TCs, it simply wants a viable military base on the island but needs the camouflage of a legally recognised State. The talks will break down and the "big boys" will put serious pressure on Turkey and the ROC to agree to recognised partition that will lead to annexation.

Talat has mentioned arbitration recently - that could be the way forward

[YFred]

Unfortunately the GC leaderships is all tied up in a masturbatory process and are not paying attention to the territory aspect.

The deal should have a sliding scale aspect, the more the other side emphasises separation and leans towards partition or confederation they must exchange this advantage with territory. Outright partition can be had if the territory is 15-85, confederation with 18-82, federation 25-75, and so on.

28-72 is no deal, for the simple reason that it contains no territorial adjustment, this presupposes returning the dead zone. Unless this proposal is accompanied by full property restitution then it is a non event. But the TC side, as explained by Nami in a recent interview, is that they want 29 per cent of territory with no right of property return. Anyone who agrees to such a deal is a fool.

Nikitas, 29% will mean about 100000 will have their land back and 60000 will be able to live in the north. That is a realistic proposition.

[boomerang]

Unfortunately the GC leaderships is all tied up in a masturbatory process and are not paying attention to the territory aspect.

The deal should have a sliding scale aspect, the more the other side emphasises separation and leans towards partition or confederation they must exchange this advantage with territory. Outright partition can be had if the territory is 15-85, confederation with 18-82, federation 25-75, and so on.

28-72 is no deal, for the simple reason that it contains no territorial adjustment, this presupposes returning the dead zone. Unless this proposal is accompanied by full property restitution then it is a non event. But the TC side, as explained by Nami in a recent interview, is that they want 29 per cent of territory with no right of property return. Anyone who agrees to such a deal is a fool.

Nikitas, 29% will mean about 100000 will have their land back and 60000 will be able to live in the north. That is a realistic proposition.

if knucklehead says so, it must me realistic...

[YFred]

Unfortunately the GC leaderships is all tied up in a masturbatory process and are not paying attention to the territory aspect.

The deal should have a sliding scale aspect, the more the other side emphasises separation and leans towards partition or confederation they must exchange this advantage with territory. Outright partition can be had if the territory is 15-85, confederation with 18-82, federation 25-75, and so on.

28-72 is no deal, for the simple reason that it contains no territorial adjustment, this presupposes returning the dead zone. Unless this proposal is accompanied by full property restitution then it is a non event. But the TC side, as explained by Nami in a recent interview, is that they want 29 per cent of territory with no right of property return. Anyone who agrees to such a deal is a fool.

Nikitas, 29% will mean about 100000 will have their land back and 60000 will be able to live in the north. That is a realistic proposition.

if knucklehead says so, it must me realistic...

Bumbo boy, now listen, that is what is going to be offered on take it or leave it basis.

[boomerang]

Unfortunately the GC leaderships is all tied up in a masturbatory process and are not paying attention to the territory aspect.

The deal should have a sliding scale aspect, the more the other side emphasises separation and leans towards partition or confederation they must exchange this advantage with territory. Outright partition can be had if the territory is 15-85, confederation with 18-82, federation 25-75, and so on.

28-72 is no deal, for the simple reason that it contains no territorial adjustment, this presupposes returning the dead zone. Unless this proposal is accompanied by full property restitution then it is a non event. But the TC side, as explained by Nami in a recent interview, is that they want 29 per cent of territory with no right of property return. Anyone who agrees to such a deal is a fool.

Nikitas, 29% will mean about 100000 will have their land back and 60000 will be able to live in the north. That is a realistic proposition.

if knucklehead says so, it must me realistic...

Bumbo boy, now listen, that is what is going to be offered on take it or leave it basis.

when do you think you will reached the quota on predictions knucklehead?...