shahmaran wrote:Nikitas wrote:"In fact, that was probably the only element you could pressure Turkey with."
I never thought for a minute that the EU process was a leverage factor allowing the RoC to pressure Turkey. On the other hand pressure can be applied in other ways, as the S300 affair proves. Except that the S300 are a bit of a mystery to this very day for other reasons.
A progressive, wealthy, RoC with a 72 mile frontier with the Turkish army, is pretty close to what Ecevit had described as a nightmare for Turkey- a Greek military presence in the Middle East, and that is enough pressure to solve the problem and it can be more effective than the threat of a veto in the EU.
If you put down lists of options for both sides to this problem, the Greek list is longer, odd as this might sound.
So you think the RoC can seriously pressurize Turkey with military threats? (not rhetorical)
I mean what is stopping Turkey from adding another 40K or more, on the island?
Shah,
In all seriousness, Turkey's 40K troops in the north are already trapped there with nowhere to go. They are actually "sitting ducks" militarily speaking and adding more troops to the island, will only increase their problem in the event that Turkey abandons her EU accession dreams and becomes hostile to a EU member state (RoC) and any military confrontation with the EU Block, their sea supply route will be cut off from the mainland with only couple of nuclear powered subs, "no fly zone" enforced between the north and the mainland, EU Block Troops on the ground in the south and the moment the shit hits the fan, it will become a "turkey shoot" (no pun intended) on the TA in the north and the whole thing will be over in matter of days. Militarily speaking, and I'm no military man, the TA in the north is in a very vulnerable location with no place to hide or retreat to if the going gets tough for them. They will only have two choices when their backs becomes the shores of northern Cyprus, to fight to the very end, or raise the white flag, in the event they had to face a real military force against them.
To this day, I cannot figure out as to why Turkey even needs to be in northern Cyprus for her strategic purpose. The mainland is only 40 miles away for god sake. We are not talking about Turkey wanting to hold onto, say Gibraltar, where they can have some influence who comes and goes through the Gibraltar Straights and a base far away from her shores, but northern Cyprus.???. Now, I would understand if they had all of Cyprus, but only part of it, serves no purpose to protect the mainland, because as Nikitas stated very clearly, if the north becomes annexed or that there is a formal partition, the RoC can then invite anyone a base in the RoC that may not be so friendly to Turkey and kick the British out. A foreign military power that might be a major threat to the mainland that's only 40 miles away, will be Turkey worse nightmares.
Turkey knows all this of course, and that's why there has not been an official partition taken place already or likely in the future, instead, the AP was going to give Turkey what it wanted, to have power over the whole island in the form of the so called "guarantor power". Well, that did not happen and any hold onto the north as I see it, is more of a liability than an advantage, militarily and economically speaking, other than perhaps have some bragging rights that they have a military victory under their belts over parts of the RoC, but such bragging rights over northern Cyprus can hardly be seen as a major military victory for a strong NATO member, considering the heavy loses that they incurred during the battle that can make any nation stand tall, but that only comes if the opponent was a formidable force. The RoC was not.!
