by Nikitas » Tue Jul 21, 2009 11:39 am
As I posted above, the list of options for the Greek side is longer than the options of the Turkish side, in the broader context of relations. Turkey knows this, that is why it is not willing to encompass the prospetc of two really independent nations on the island. See how it reacts when the south proceeds with oil exploration ion areas which are clearly within the continental shelf of the south- it raises the issue of interlinkage of north and south and remembers that the wealth of the island belongs to all Cypriots etc.
Annexation sounds like a simple solution. However, it implies that every other part oc Cyprus, including its sea territory is let go, no more interlinkage. If annexation is broadly recognised then the whole world by implication will have to recognise the full independence of the south too, RoC free from the last remnants of the Zurich agreements. Those who see things exclusively from the TRNC point of view do not realise how the 1960 constitution still applies in the south with most of its fetters still valid.
Just think of Cyprus free and able to rent a base to Russia, or a anyone else. RoC totally free to do with its continental shelf as it pleases. And the prospect of RoC uniting with Greece and thus making Greece a Middle Eastern power, Ecevit's nightmare coming true. The Green Line will become a new Greek Turkish border, a new liability in perpetuity where there was none before.
Annexation will mean instantly a permanent block to any EU prospects for Turkey for understandable reasons.
A new area of military focus will arise in the area between Crete and Cyprus and that is a prospect Turkey does not want. When you see the delineation lines of EEZs, continental shelf and territorial waters you will understand the ramifications of such a shift. And the day Turkey annexes the north will also be the day when Greece, with full international backing, will extend its territorial waters to 12 miles and no one will be able to say a word.
But even without annexation there are other options. Just think of the RoC unilaterally announcing that it cedes the north to the TRNC and recognises the TRNC. Sounds like a suicidal move but it is not. It throws the ball firmly yand heavily onto the TCs and the international community, it removes the burden of the Cyprus Problem from the backs of teh GCs and it dissolves the role of Turkey as the so called protector of the TCs. What do you think will happen in the north and Turkey a few hours after such an announcement? How would Turkey handle the situation where the RoC and the TRNC exchange ambassadors?
There are other options that are available once we think out of the box. So do not cling on to the annexation card as if it were a panacea, it is not.
