FAMAGUSTA GAZETTE 09.JUL.09
Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat has said that his side is prepared to make fewer territorial concessions than those provided by the Annan Plan.
According to reports, Talat said that his aim is to move the least number of people possible from areas which will be returned under Greek Cypriot administration after a solution is found.
He added that the Annan plan provided for 45,000 people to be moved to new properties but he did not specify the number of people he will propose to move.
Talat better understand how this game is being played, because he will end up losing all the land in the north in due time to the GCs.
The only way Talat can assume to get more GC land for the north state where it can become a pure TC state in the future, is only if the GCs will agree to a BBF Confederation settlement, then it is worth it for him to get as much land as possible, much like the Annan Plan, otherwise, if a settlement is based on the UN resolutions BBF Federation settlement which is what I believe is what the GCs will vote for of the two options, then I believe Talat is making a big mistake in asking for more land, when in fact he should offer to give at least 50% of the north back to the GCs to become part of the south state, and here are the reasons why.
If non of the GC land in the north is returned to be part of the south state, you will have potentially 180,000-200,000 GC refugees who will have the right to return to the north if not all back to their own properties, since not all will be able to get them back for one reason or the other, but they will all be able to return to the north once any temporary derogations have ended on all Cypriots freedom of movement on the island. This number alone will be larger than the present number of True TCs in the north as well as the added 50,000 settlers and their children that was already agreed to by Christofias. That's about 120,000 "TCs" in the north with voting rights, which will fall far short of the minimum number of GCs who will be entitled to return back to the north. Even if only 65%-70% GCs returned back to the north, it will be enough that they will be able to take over the north completely, politically and in population, specially if eventually more GCs arrive to the north as time goes by. Once that happens, it will be their democratic right of the north state's citizens to demand a union with the south state, which means to become a UNITY state.
Unlike the Annan Plan which had so many ways to prevent such a UNITY from happening, the same can't be said with the EU principles, which will be possible for it to happen, and unless the TCs can get permanent derogations to prevent it from happening, it will happen, and the EU is on record stating, that there will NOT be any permanent derogations to it's own EU principles. Therefore, if we are to settle on a BBF Federation, then I believe Christofias will encourage Talat to keep as much of the north as possible. He may even offer Talat some of the land from the south state also (tongue & cheek), for it to become part of the north state, because he knows how the end game will look like in 10, 15, 20 years from now. I would urge Talat to be very careful on how he walks across this "minefield", because it is very likely that he will blow it up for the TCs. If a settlement is going to be based on BBF Federation, he must offer to give back at least 50% of the north as of yesterday, so to eliminate large numbers of GC refugees returning back to their properties that will be part of the north state, so not to create a population imbalanced with the TCs low numbers from day one, hence political imbalance as well. The less GC land is in the north state, the less GC refugees will be there as well, since by haven gotten most of their properties back, they will be then be living within the south state.!
The above subject was discussed in detail on this tread,
“Kikapu's "BBF" Power Sharing Plan.!”
http://www.cyprus-forum.com/viewtopic.php?t=21685