Cyprus-Forum.com

[Paphitis]

Have you ever felt the idea that Turkey is not willing to leave Cyprus and also has no intent in entering EU. It's so obvious that Cyprus cannot veto the membership of Turkey to EU unless France and Germany supports it. However, they also don't want to see Turkey as a full member. Since the religious government of Turkey is well aware of these facts they turned their face to the east and since 2000s they have been improving relations with neighboring Muslim countries...

That's not what ERDOGAN has been saying.

Here, straight from the horse's mouth.....

Turkey says only full EU membership acceptable

ATHENS (Reuters) - Turkey will accept nothing less than full European Union membership, its EU affairs minister said in an interview published on Sunday, following government efforts in Brussels last week to revive its drive to join.

If I were you, I would rather give a serious consideration to what Alpeis has pointed out here.

You make me laugh, you stupid fuck...

If Turkey was not serious about joining the EU, then why waste their time with all this bullshit? Withdraw from the EU accession process, and be done with it.

Paphitis wrote:

That's not what ERDOGAN has been saying.

Cem wrote:

So when a politician says something he always means business ?? Considering the root words of politics (Poly=multiple, Tic=A local and habitual convulsive motion of facial muscles) accordingly politics could as well be interpreted as multi-faced. That should signal something even to you.

What a stupid fucker you are...

The only thing this signals to me, is that Turkey is indeed serious about joining the EU, but does not want to comply with the EU benchmarks on Human Rights as set out by the EU Charter, and it also does not want to recognize the RoC, which is an EU member and has veto rights on Turkey's accession, or comply with EU directives pertaining to the opening of its Ports and FIR.

Paphitis wrote:

Here, straight from the horse's mouth.....

Turkey says only full EU membership acceptable

Cem wrote:

The reason why horse neighs that way, couldn’t it be simply manoeuvering by Erdogan ? For instance, knowing that such an EU membership is not likely to happen, Erdogan wants to play hero who bravely fights a loosing battle in front of his electorate, so when the talks come to a standstill for any reason whatsoever (not only because of Cyprob), he will have an excuse to present for turning away from EU.
Let me further elaborate:
1) Turkish foreign policy is run by Washington not by Brussels; that much is well known everywhere, except maybe here in CF.

Like I asked you before, if Erdogan was such a Euro skeptic, then why is he wasting every one's time with this extensive EU process???

Washington does not control Ankara. If it did, then Turkey would have allowed the US to utilize Turkish Airspace for the Iraq campaign. The fact that Ankara did not allow this, resulted in a deterioration in relations with the US. I can only agree that Washington has extensive influence in Ankara, and the US will use its influence on Turkey to ensure it remains on the EU reform road map in order for Turkey's accession to the EU to become a reality. The last thing the US would want is for Turkey to become an Islamic Republic.

Cem wrote:

2 The good ol’ USA has been deliberately supporting the pro-islamist AKP government in order to realize long-term goals: a) establishment of a separate Kurdistan republic on Turkish soil thus creating a sort of a buffer zone against Iran as well as against arab countries in the region. b) closer relations with Armenia (indirectly meaning recognition of A.G). This way, Uncle Sam could have a closer access to Caucasus area as well, by way of Armenia after the closed border is opened. Since TSK (army) would fervently oppose to such a scheme, Uncle Sam needed a compatible and obedient ally to fulfill his goal and found it :Islamists.

If what you say is true, then power to their (US) elbow. Why shouldn't the Kurds have their own Republic/country?

Forgive me for not having faith in your statement above, because in all my extensive research in Middle Eastern Strategic Affairs, I have seen no evidence that suggests what you say is correct.

Cem wrote:

3) Now, if such a Kurdish area is established and A.G is recognized prior to the solution of Cyprob, this is certain to create strong reaction in nationalist circles and TSK. In this case, in order to appease them, the USA and its mild-islamist muppet, AKP, may have to play rough regarding CyProb issue.

Highly speculative Kafeneio talk unless you have any material to back your hypothesis up....

Cem wrote;

4) If, on the other hand, CyProb is solved first, it may be stemming similar reactions in same circles, though at a lesser intensity. In this case, the EU will supposedly speed up talks and open a few more chapters to gain time, however, the accession talks-one way or another- will come to a stall again since both Sarkozy and Merkel, leaders of two pillars of EU have both made it clear that Turkey will never be EU member. Consequently, nationalists and TSK may then skillfully manipulate the public frustration already increasing due to Turkey’s ailing economy. Such a possibility however, may go against the interests of Uncle Sam again.

There is no way a Kurdish state will be created on Turkish soil any time soon. I would however be overjoyed if I was wrong about this. This would indeed fanaticise the nationalists, but I'm in no position to engage your Kafeneio hypothesis and give it credence.

I also don't believe that Sarkhozy or Merzel are a serious obstacle to Turkey's EU accession. There is no way Washington will just sit back and not dangle some carrots in order to sway both France and Germany.

Turkey should be more concerned with the 8 EU Acquis Communitaire chapters that have not opened, due to its non recognition of an EU state and not allowing that state's aircraft and ships free access to its airspace and ports. This is what will prevent Turkey from becoming an EU member, and this is why it has suddenly become imperative that the Cyprus Problem is solved in accordance with EU Charter principles.

Cem wrote;

5) At the end of the day, I think that the issue may fast become a conflict of interests between E.U- U.S.A. I know some of you guys believe that the US supports Turkey in her EU accession talks. "There is nothing more revitalizing than believing and dreaming" says a turkish expression.Well, keep believing then !
Of course mine is simply a scenario, more likely a theory, however, seeing some leading indicators, I have some reasons to believe in my theory !

The fact of the matter is, it is the US that is influencing Turkey's EU accession bid, and there are massive Geo Strategic reasons why it is doing so. Most Turks are by far Islamists, and the fear is that the Turkish Deep State is losing its control and that the Turkish Generals influence is declining.

You scenario is interesting, but you have offered no material to support this scenario. You mention some leading indicators which may well support your hypothesis. Well, let's have a close look at these indicators. Allow us the opportunity to analyze them. Thanks!

[Cem]

You make me laugh, you stupid fuck...
What a stupid fucker you are...

The Australian Air Forces High Command is obviously,upset ! And that…. is good news.

If Turkey was not serious about joining the EU, then why waste their time with all this bullshit? Withdraw from the EU accession process, and be done with it.

To use EU negotiations as a bulwark against the secular opposition and particularly against the army. Who would dare to lift a finger and say anything against a government-however islamist it may look- who (seemingly) wants to join a western club ? As long as AKP has EU agenda cooking in the kitchen, this would be a guarantee against a potential coup. TSK already declared itself pro-western, would they dare to contradict their pro-west vision ? If army ever attempts something against the EU accession- negotiating government, it would find itself at odds with itself. AKP will want to keep EU accession talks as an ongoing process...as long as it takes..

The last thing the US would want is for Turkey to become an Islamic Republic

.

The US wouldn’t give a damn as long as Turkey remains her ally. There are many of the kind like Saudi Arabia; Pakistan who are Islamic states(former has a sharia rule, latter is bordering around) also close US allies. Saudi bastards helped coalition forces against Iraq during the first Gulf war. By the way, what do you know anything about Fettullah Gulen and his sphere of influence in Turkish politics?

There is no way a Kurdish state will be created on Turkish soil any time soon.

I said long term goals. Of course this won’t happen overnight.

I would however be overjoyed if I was wrong about this.

You would perhaps be less overjoyed once you predict the implications of a separate kurdish state on turkish soil on the "Unified Cyprus".

I also don't believe that Sarkhozy or Merzel are a serious obstacle to Turkey's EU accession. There is no way Washington will just sit back and not dangle some carrots in order to sway both France and Germany.

When it comes to military power, The EU is no match for the US. That much is clear. However, that doesn’t mean US could dictate anything they want-like imposing Turkey’s admission- to EU. If they had been so influential why Bush could not drag them along in the second Iraqi war campaign ?

Turkey should be more concerned with the 8 EU Acquis Communitaire chapters that have not opened, due to its non recognition of an EU state and not allowing that state's aircraft and ships free access to its airspace and ports. This is what will prevent Turkey from becoming an EU member, and this is why it has suddenly become imperative that the Cyprus Problem is solved in accordance with EU Charter principles.

Turkey will never be a member of EU, even if CyProb is solved, even if Armenian Genocide is recognized, even if Kurds obtain an autonomous state, even if Turkey make substantial progress in human rights issues for its own citizens. All these accession talks is nothing but a delusion

The fact of the matter is, it is the US that is influencing Turkey's EU accession bid, and there are massive Geo Strategic reasons why it is doing so. Most Turks are by far Islamists, and the fear is that the Turkish Deep State is losing its control and that the Turkish Generals influence is declining.

Again, US don't need to shove Turkey into Europe's ass, as they don't care about islam. What US wants is to have a subservient state and an EU member state would be less prone to act subservient to US. France pulled out of NATO in 1966 and told US to take a flying fuck to the moon. Egypt, S.Arabia, UAE are islamist countries already within US grip. Could they lift a finger when Israel attacked Gazza ? It takes guts for them.Besides, EU is crawling with muslims and they are getting fed up with muslim immigrants. Therefore, they wouldn't be thrilled with perspective of Turkey's EU membership by increasing their islam quota by additional 80 million people.

You scenario is interesting, but you have offered no material to support this scenario. You mention some leading indicators which may well support your hypothesis. Well, let's have a close look at these indicators. Allow us the opportunity to analyze them. Thanks

No problem, I will start a thread in due time, in the meantime you must allow me to compile some links and documentation

[Paphitis]

You make me laugh, you stupid fuck...
What a stupid fucker you are...

The Australian Air Forces High Command is obviously,upset ! And that…. is good news.

Upset??

No I don't think so.

Maybe just a little upset because you deliver no substance to your thesis.

This is what you have delivered so far...

Highly speculative Kafeneio talk unless you have any material to back your hypothesis up...

If Turkey was not serious about joining the EU, then why waste their time with all this bullshit? Withdraw from the EU accession process, and be done with it.

Cem wrote:

To use EU negotiations as a bulwark against the secular opposition and particularly against the army. Who would dare to lift a finger and say anything against a government-however islamist it may look- who (seemingly) wants to join a western club ? As long as AKP has EU agenda cooking in the kitchen, this would be a guarantee against a potential coup. TSK already declared itself pro-western, would they dare to contradict their pro-west vision ? If army ever attempts something against the EU accession- negotiating government, it would find itself at odds with itself. AKP will want to keep EU accession talks as an ongoing process...as long as it takes..

The AKP has already been the victim of a "silent coup" not so long ago. So clearly, the Deep State is still in the background influencing things as much as possible.

But quite clearly, you forget that should the TSK regain the reigns of power by removing the AKP, then EU membership will never materialize as this would mean a complete withdrawal from Cyprus and recognizing the RoC. The TSK fundamentally does not want to give Cyprus any recognition, and has clear strategic expansionist ideals that will see a 2 state solution in Cyprus, and thus subjugate the island forever and maybe even make the whole island predominantly Turkish. This of course will never be allowed should Turkey continue on the EU road map. Turkey will continue with its desire to join the EU as a full member, with American backing, to ensure that Turkey does not turn into a semi Islamic state, and to also ensure that Turkey remains an important NATO ally, and an important ally to Israel, as democratization is improved in compliance with the EU Charter.

There is absolutely no evidence to suggest that the EU is a front to keep the TSK at bay, when quite clearly, the TSK is fundamentally opposed to EU accession due to Cyprus and the inevitable democratization of the state due to the adoption of the EU Charter.

The last thing the US would want is for Turkey to become an Islamic Republic

.

Cem wrote:

The US wouldn’t give a damn as long as Turkey remains her ally. There are many of the kind like Saudi Arabia; Pakistan who are Islamic states(former has a sharia rule, latter is bordering around) also close US allies. Saudi bastards helped coalition forces against Iraq during the first Gulf war. By the way, what do you know anything about Fettullah Gulen and his sphere of influence in Turkish politics?

I can assure you that the US does give a damn, and it knows that the only way to keep Turkey within its sphere of influence, is by ensuring that Turkey becomes a full member of the EU. There are many other issues as well, such as ensuring that Turkey behaves in such a manner that does not jeopardize the stability of the region. 2 NATO members have nearly gone to war 4 times since 1974, and the TAF incursions into the Athens FIR and Greek National Airspace are a big concern for stability in the region. But more importantly for the US, the Turkish/Israeli alliance is vitally important for US interests. Whilst the Israeli/Palestinian issue is alive and well, the US would like to ensure that it can count on certain countries behaving themselves, and not cause anything which will create another potential conflict between 2 NATO members within the region.

There is no way a Kurdish state will be created on Turkish soil any time soon.

Cem Wrote:

I said long term goals. Of course this won’t happen overnight.

I don't think so. Very far fetched scenario.

Iraq however, is another question, and I firmly believe that a Kurdish State will be created in Northern Iraq in the not too distant future.

I would however be overjoyed if I was wrong about this.

Cem Wrote:

You would perhaps be less overjoyed once you predict the implications of a separate kurdish state on turkish soil on the "Unified Cyprus".

The 2 things are completely different.

The Kurds have a traditional homeland, and this homeland is located in Northern Iraq and far east Anatolia.

The TCs however, do not have a traditional homeland within Cyprus, as they are clearly recent arrivals (1571) when compared to the long 10,000 year history of native Cypriots. The TCs have ALL of Cyprus as their homeland as just 1 ethnic group within a multicultural Cyprus, and nothing more.

I also don't believe that Sarkhozy or Merzel are a serious obstacle to Turkey's EU accession. There is no way Washington will just sit back and not dangle some carrots in order to sway both France and Germany.

Cem wrote:

When it comes to military power, The EU is no match for the US. That much is clear. However, that doesn’t mean US could dictate anything they want-like imposing Turkey’s admission- to EU. If they had been so influential why Bush could not drag them along in the second Iraqi war campaign ?

Why are you comparing EU military power with the US? Do you envisage that the US will attack the EU and its NATO allies?

Nevertheless, there are some militarily powerful nations within the EU, such as France, Great Britain, Italy, and Spain.

The US has enormous influence within the EU in terms of the magnitude of its consumer economy. The EU is a vital market for countries like America. It also has enormous influence on most EU nations through NATO, and at this early stage, all I see is that the US has a somewhat cocky attitude that Turkey will inevitably become a full EU member down the track.

Turkey should be more concerned with the 8 EU Acquis Communitaire chapters that have not opened, due to its non recognition of an EU state and not allowing that state's aircraft and ships free access to its airspace and ports. This is what will prevent Turkey from becoming an EU member, and this is why it has suddenly become imperative that the Cyprus Problem is solved in accordance with EU Charter principles.

Cem wrote:

Turkey will never be a member of EU, even if CyProb is solved, even if Armenian Genocide is recognized, even if Kurds obtain an autonomous state, even if Turkey make substantial progress in human rights issues for its own citizens. All these accession talks is nothing but a delusion.

I have to disagree with you on this. Also, from what I can gather, Turkey has made some reforms, but progress is quite slow for this hybrid democracy. There are issues that plague Turkey, such as Cyprus, but I don't believe Turkey is going to let this get in the way, unless the TSK get involved. The mere fact that it hasn't so far is because of US involvement.

The fact of the matter is, it is the US that is influencing Turkey's EU accession bid, and there are massive Geo Strategic reasons why it is doing so. Most Turks are by far Islamists, and the fear is that the Turkish Deep State is losing its control and that the Turkish Generals influence is declining.

Cem wrote:

Again, US don't need to shove Turkey into Europe's ass, as they don't care about islam. What US wants is to have a subservient state and an EU member state would be less prone to act subservient to US. France pulled out of NATO in 1966 and told US to take a flying fuck to the moon. Egypt, S.Arabia, UAE are islamist countries already within US grip. Could they lift a finger when Israel attacked Gazza ? It takes guts for them.Besides, EU is crawling with muslims and they are getting fed up with muslim immigrants. Therefore, they wouldn't be thrilled with perspective of Turkey's EU membership by increasing their islam quota by additional 80 million people.

I believe the US is trying to "shove" Turkey into the EU so that it can guarantee there will be know adventurism in Cyprus or the Aegean, resulting in all out war between 2 allies. It is also a way of guaranteeing more cooperation between these 2 NATO allies, creating stability within the region, and by bringing a close to the long and drawn out Cyprus Problem.

I agree with on on the Muslim immigrants within EU countries. I also believe that this fear is easily circumvented by not allowing Turkish Citizens the right to migrate outside their borders until the Turkish economy and standard of living improves somewhat. When the gap between Turkey and Western Europe diminishes, then Turkish citizens will have a far reduced desire to migrate to other EU countries such as Germany or France. This has also been suggested by Oli Rehn.

You scenario is interesting, but you have offered no material to support this scenario. You mention some leading indicators which may well support your hypothesis. Well, let's have a close look at these indicators. Allow us the opportunity to analyze them. Thanks

Cem wrote:

No problem, I will start a thread in due time, in the meantime you must allow me to compile some links and documentation

No problem!