Cyprus-Forum.com

[Icarus]

Who said anything about fighting a war?

Of course Cyprus is not capable enough to tackle the Turkish Navy on its own.

But FAC offer an excellent deterrent because it does make Turkish destroyers much more vulnerable.

This is the only realistic option available to us. The key is to effectively patrol the EEZ so that oil and gas exploration can go ahead unhindered.

There is very minimal possibility that the Hellenic Navy is going to offer substantial assets to effectively fight Turkey in Cyprus, so obviously the aim is to offer a substantial deterrence, and not to fight WW111.

For these naval assets to be useful as a deterrent, you need to be prepared to use them. If they're heavily outgunned, which the boats you suggest will be, then very soon after firing your first deterrent shot, you will lose the entire fleet. Hence they are not much of a deterrent. Hence you may as well not have spent the money in the first place.

How are they going to be heavily outgunned, when their job is not to take on the whole Turkish Navy, but to patrol the EEZ, and at the same time to be able to strike using Exocet or Penguin SSM from over 150kms away? The Mi-35Ps can also serve a similar function, if within range.

This is not the type of vessel that will go in and attack a Turkish destroyer. They are designed to out speed larger destroyers and frigates, firing their missiles, if needed, and then make an about face and get the hell out of there. They could be used to keep Turkish vessels at bay, whilst Oil Exploration is in progress, and in this scenario they can get up close to much more capable Turkish Naval vessels, with not a single shot being fired, because even if the FAC is sunk, the Turkish Destroyer will still get hit from either an EXOCET or PENGUIN.

But there primary role would be to patrol Oil and Gas fields and escort any exploration vessels. This is what this thread is about.

As long as we are prepared to do this, other nations will also offer their assistance. And I'm not referring to Greece specifically. The US will, in all likelihood, park the Saratoga and a few destroyer escorts in the area, keeping a very close eye on the situation and to protect their interests. So it is extremely unlikely that things will escalate because the Americans will never allow it.

It is not about fighting WW111, because quite clearly we are unable to destroy the Turkish Navy, and a confrontation between Greece and Turkey is also unlikely.

[bill cobbett]

As has been said, we ain't going to fight WW3 with a small surface "fleet" of the sort some suggest. As ever CY will box way beyond its weight by using a little bit of intelligence so the important things are to guarantee a stand-off which buys time for an international condemnation of any Turkish Interference in CY EEZ.

At present all CY can do is to protest after the event. Protests which fall on deaf ears. I want a situation where bigger powers will have no choice but to tell Turkey to back down.

[denizaksulu]

Who said anything about fighting a war?

Of course Cyprus is not capable enough to tackle the Turkish Navy on its own.

But FAC offer an excellent deterrent because it does make Turkish destroyers much more vulnerable.

This is the only realistic option available to us. The key is to effectively patrol the EEZ so that oil and gas exploration can go ahead unhindered.

There is very minimal possibility that the Hellenic Navy is going to offer substantial assets to effectively fight Turkey in Cyprus, so obviously the aim is to offer a substantial deterrence, and not to fight WW111.

For these naval assets to be useful as a deterrent, you need to be prepared to use them. If they're heavily outgunned, which the boats you suggest will be, then very soon after firing your first deterrent shot, you will lose the entire fleet. Hence they are not much of a deterrent. Hence you may as well not have spent the money in the first place.

How are they going to be heavily outgunned, when their job is not to take on the whole Turkish Navy, but to patrol the EEZ, and at the same time to be able to strike using Exocet or Penguin SSM from over 150kms away? The Mi-35Ps can also serve a similar function, if within range.

This is not the type of vessel that will go in and attack a Turkish destroyer. They are designed to out speed larger destroyers and frigates, firing their missiles, if needed, and then make an about face and get the hell out of there. They could be used to keep Turkish vessels at bay, whilst Oil Exploration is in progress, and in this scenario they can get up close to much more capable Turkish Naval vessels, with not a single shot being fired, because even if the FAC is sunk, the Turkish Destroyer will still get hit from either an EXOCET or PENGUIN.

But there primary role would be to patrol Oil and Gas fields and escort any exploration vessels. This is what this thread is about.

As long as we are prepared to do this, other nations will also offer their assistance. And I'm not referring to Greece specifically. The US will, in all likelihood, park the Saratoga and a few destroyer escorts in the area, keeping a very close eye on the situation and to protect their interests. So it is extremely unlikely that things will escalate because the Americans will never allow it.

It is not about fighting WW111, because quite clearly we are unable to destroy the Turkish Navy, and a confrontation between Greece and Turkey is also unlikely.

May 'Allah' forbid, but who do you think will fire the first shot....or are you thinking on the lines of a 'pre-emptive strike?'.

[Icarus]

Who said anything about fighting a war?

Of course Cyprus is not capable enough to tackle the Turkish Navy on its own.

But FAC offer an excellent deterrent because it does make Turkish destroyers much more vulnerable.

This is the only realistic option available to us. The key is to effectively patrol the EEZ so that oil and gas exploration can go ahead unhindered.

There is very minimal possibility that the Hellenic Navy is going to offer substantial assets to effectively fight Turkey in Cyprus, so obviously the aim is to offer a substantial deterrence, and not to fight WW111.

For these naval assets to be useful as a deterrent, you need to be prepared to use them. If they're heavily outgunned, which the boats you suggest will be, then very soon after firing your first deterrent shot, you will lose the entire fleet. Hence they are not much of a deterrent. Hence you may as well not have spent the money in the first place.

How are they going to be heavily outgunned, when their job is not to take on the whole Turkish Navy, but to patrol the EEZ, and at the same time to be able to strike using Exocet or Penguin SSM from over 150kms away? The Mi-35Ps can also serve a similar function, if within range.

This is not the type of vessel that will go in and attack a Turkish destroyer. They are designed to out speed larger destroyers and frigates, firing their missiles, if needed, and then make an about face and get the hell out of there. They could be used to keep Turkish vessels at bay, whilst Oil Exploration is in progress, and in this scenario they can get up close to much more capable Turkish Naval vessels, with not a single shot being fired, because even if the FAC is sunk, the Turkish Destroyer will still get hit from either an EXOCET or PENGUIN.

But there primary role would be to patrol Oil and Gas fields and escort any exploration vessels. This is what this thread is about.

As long as we are prepared to do this, other nations will also offer their assistance. And I'm not referring to Greece specifically. The US will, in all likelihood, park the Saratoga and a few destroyer escorts in the area, keeping a very close eye on the situation and to protect their interests. So it is extremely unlikely that things will escalate because the Americans will never allow it.

It is not about fighting WW111, because quite clearly we are unable to destroy the Turkish Navy, and a confrontation between Greece and Turkey is also unlikely.

May 'Allah' forbid, but who do you think will fire the first shot....or are you thinking on the lines of a 'preemptive strike?'.

I don't think there will be any shots fired. But if a preemptive strike is initiated, it is more likely to come from the Turkish Navy and not Cyprus.

Cyprus needs to send the right message by effectively patrolling the EEZ. This can be achieved with a small fleet of Fast Attack Craft carrying potent Exocet or Penguin Surface to Surface Missiles. This will offer the deterrence we need against turkey's sabre rattling.

We can not rely on other countries to patrol the EEZ for us.

And as soon as Cyprus sends out the message that it is serious about patroling the EEZ, more countries will be confident enough to place bids for Cypriot EEZ plots and explore for Oil and Gas.

[james_mav]

Who said anything about fighting a war?

Of course Cyprus is not capable enough to tackle the Turkish Navy on its own.

But FAC offer an excellent deterrent because it does make Turkish destroyers much more vulnerable.

This is the only realistic option available to us. The key is to effectively patrol the EEZ so that oil and gas exploration can go ahead unhindered.

There is very minimal possibility that the Hellenic Navy is going to offer substantial assets to effectively fight Turkey in Cyprus, so obviously the aim is to offer a substantial deterrence, and not to fight WW111.

For these naval assets to be useful as a deterrent, you need to be prepared to use them. If they're heavily outgunned, which the boats you suggest will be, then very soon after firing your first deterrent shot, you will lose the entire fleet. Hence they are not much of a deterrent. Hence you may as well not have spent the money in the first place.

How are they going to be heavily outgunned, when their job is not to take on the whole Turkish Navy, but to patrol the EEZ, and at the same time to be able to strike using Exocet or Penguin SSM from over 150kms away? The Mi-35Ps can also serve a similar function, if within range.

This is not the type of vessel that will go in and attack a Turkish destroyer. They are designed to out speed larger destroyers and frigates, firing their missiles, if needed, and then make an about face and get the hell out of there. They could be used to keep Turkish vessels at bay, whilst Oil Exploration is in progress, and in this scenario they can get up close to much more capable Turkish Naval vessels, with not a single shot being fired, because even if the FAC is sunk, the Turkish Destroyer will still get hit from either an EXOCET or PENGUIN.

But there primary role would be to patrol Oil and Gas fields and escort any exploration vessels. This is what this thread is about.

As long as we are prepared to do this, other nations will also offer their assistance. And I'm not referring to Greece specifically. The US will, in all likelihood, park the Saratoga and a few destroyer escorts in the area, keeping a very close eye on the situation and to protect their interests. So it is extremely unlikely that things will escalate because the Americans will never allow it.

It is not about fighting WW111, because quite clearly we are unable to destroy the Turkish Navy, and a confrontation between Greece and Turkey is also unlikely.

I think that the mission you propose for these hypothetical boats is confused.

Start from the premise that bluster aside, the mogoloi would never attack an civilian vessel flagged under another nation. If they are not willing to attack unarmed research vessels, there is no need for any kind of deterrent. To buy warships is a criminal waste in response to their bluff.

Now consider that the mogoloi are willing to attack an unarmed foreign-flagged vessel involved in hydrocarbon extraction. If they are willing to attack unarmed foreign-flagged vessels, then they are certainly willing to attack and destroy an RoC flotilla.

The nature of your deterrent will be that the RoC flotilla will respond to an armed attack on research vessels rather than take the fight to the tourkomogoloi preemptively. This means that the mogoloi get to choose when and where an armed conflict takes place. So if the mogoloi decide to attack hydrocarbon research vessels and they anticipate a response from your lightly defended fast attack boats, they will first attack and neutralise your fast attack boats, and then carry on against the unarmed research vessels at their leisure. Even if your deterrent flotilla was capable of destroying some mogolo capital ships in response to an attack on research vessels, they'd never get the chance as they would be eliminated in the first salvo.

I'm sorry, but I just don't think your idea will work, as much as I would like it to. Building a naval force of any measure of effectiveness under the circumstances is a serious and expensive undertaking.

[DT.]

No one's gonna fire on anyone. What are you guys on about?

[james_mav]

Who said anything about fighting a war?

Of course Cyprus is not capable enough to tackle the Turkish Navy on its own.

But FAC offer an excellent deterrent because it does make Turkish destroyers much more vulnerable.

This is the only realistic option available to us. The key is to effectively patrol the EEZ so that oil and gas exploration can go ahead unhindered.

There is very minimal possibility that the Hellenic Navy is going to offer substantial assets to effectively fight Turkey in Cyprus, so obviously the aim is to offer a substantial deterrence, and not to fight WW111.

For these naval assets to be useful as a deterrent, you need to be prepared to use them. If they're heavily outgunned, which the boats you suggest will be, then very soon after firing your first deterrent shot, you will lose the entire fleet. Hence they are not much of a deterrent. Hence you may as well not have spent the money in the first place.

How are they going to be heavily outgunned, when their job is not to take on the whole Turkish Navy, but to patrol the EEZ, and at the same time to be able to strike using Exocet or Penguin SSM from over 150kms away? The Mi-35Ps can also serve a similar function, if within range.

This is not the type of vessel that will go in and attack a Turkish destroyer. They are designed to out speed larger destroyers and frigates, firing their missiles, if needed, and then make an about face and get the hell out of there. They could be used to keep Turkish vessels at bay, whilst Oil Exploration is in progress, and in this scenario they can get up close to much more capable Turkish Naval vessels, with not a single shot being fired, because even if the FAC is sunk, the Turkish Destroyer will still get hit from either an EXOCET or PENGUIN.

But there primary role would be to patrol Oil and Gas fields and escort any exploration vessels. This is what this thread is about.

As long as we are prepared to do this, other nations will also offer their assistance. And I'm not referring to Greece specifically. The US will, in all likelihood, park the Saratoga and a few destroyer escorts in the area, keeping a very close eye on the situation and to protect their interests. So it is extremely unlikely that things will escalate because the Americans will never allow it.

It is not about fighting WW111, because quite clearly we are unable to destroy the Turkish Navy, and a confrontation between Greece and Turkey is also unlikely.

May 'Allah' forbid, but who do you think will fire the first shot....or are you thinking on the lines of a 'preemptive strike?'.

I don't think there will be any shots fired. But if a preemptive strike is initiated, it is more likely to come from the Turkish Navy and not Cyprus.

Cyprus needs to send the right message by effectively patrolling the EEZ. This can be achieved with a small fleet of Fast Attack Craft carrying potent Exocet or Penguin Surface to Surface Missiles.

We can not rely on other countries to do this for us.

With your flotilla of lightly defended fast attack boats, the only hope of a short term victory would be for a preemptive strike against tourkomogolo capital ships. Damaged, enemy ships would retire, but this would invite an overwhelming response, and having deliberately fired the first shot, Cyprus would be hard pressed finding international support. In fact, it is exactly this miscalculation the mogolistanis are waiting for as a pretext for grabbing the whole island.

[james_mav]

As has been said, we ain't going to fight WW3 with a small surface "fleet" of the sort some suggest. As ever CY will box way beyond its weight by using a little bit of intelligence so the important things are to guarantee a stand-off which buys time for an international condemnation of any Turkish Interference in CY EEZ.

At present all CY can do is to protest after the event. Protests which fall on deaf ears. I want a situation where bigger powers will have no choice but to tell Turkey to back down.

Just like the frequent war games that go on between Hellenic Air Force and mogolistan jets over the eastern Aegean, you can be certain that any mogolistani naval activity around Cyprus is closely shadowed by a Greek submarine, both for intelligence gathering purposes (i.e. learn as much as possible about enemy equipment and operating doctrine), and also as a deterrent. In the littoral waters around islands and near coastlines, there is very little a surface ship can do to protect itself against a submarine.

[denizaksulu]

Who said anything about fighting a war?

Of course Cyprus is not capable enough to tackle the Turkish Navy on its own.

But FAC offer an excellent deterrent because it does make Turkish destroyers much more vulnerable.

This is the only realistic option available to us. The key is to effectively patrol the EEZ so that oil and gas exploration can go ahead unhindered.

There is very minimal possibility that the Hellenic Navy is going to offer substantial assets to effectively fight Turkey in Cyprus, so obviously the aim is to offer a substantial deterrence, and not to fight WW111.

For these naval assets to be useful as a deterrent, you need to be prepared to use them. If they're heavily outgunned, which the boats you suggest will be, then very soon after firing your first deterrent shot, you will lose the entire fleet. Hence they are not much of a deterrent. Hence you may as well not have spent the money in the first place.

How are they going to be heavily outgunned, when their job is not to take on the whole Turkish Navy, but to patrol the EEZ, and at the same time to be able to strike using Exocet or Penguin SSM from over 150kms away? The Mi-35Ps can also serve a similar function, if within range.

This is not the type of vessel that will go in and attack a Turkish destroyer. They are designed to out speed larger destroyers and frigates, firing their missiles, if needed, and then make an about face and get the hell out of there. They could be used to keep Turkish vessels at bay, whilst Oil Exploration is in progress, and in this scenario they can get up close to much more capable Turkish Naval vessels, with not a single shot being fired, because even if the FAC is sunk, the Turkish Destroyer will still get hit from either an EXOCET or PENGUIN.

But there primary role would be to patrol Oil and Gas fields and escort any exploration vessels. This is what this thread is about.

As long as we are prepared to do this, other nations will also offer their assistance. And I'm not referring to Greece specifically. The US will, in all likelihood, park the Saratoga and a few destroyer escorts in the area, keeping a very close eye on the situation and to protect their interests. So it is extremely unlikely that things will escalate because the Americans will never allow it.

It is not about fighting WW111, because quite clearly we are unable to destroy the Turkish Navy, and a confrontation between Greece and Turkey is also unlikely.

May 'Allah' forbid, but who do you think will fire the first shot....or are you thinking on the lines of a 'preemptive strike?'.

I don't think there will be any shots fired. But if a preemptive strike is initiated, it is more likely to come from the Turkish Navy and not Cyprus.

Cyprus needs to send the right message by effectively patrolling the EEZ. This can be achieved with a small fleet of Fast Attack Craft carrying potent Exocet or Penguin Surface to Surface Missiles. This will offer the deterrence we need against turkey's sabre rattling.

We can not rely on other countries to patrol the EEZ for us.

And as soon as Cyprus sends out the message that it is serious about patroling the EEZ, more countries will be confident enough to place bids for Cypriot EEZ plots and explore for Oil and Gas.

Lets hope there will be no 'trigger happy' palikarias onboard. With Paphitis AAF what chance has Turkey got?

[denizaksulu]

As has been said, we ain't going to fight WW3 with a small surface "fleet" of the sort some suggest. As ever CY will box way beyond its weight by using a little bit of intelligence so the important things are to guarantee a stand-off which buys time for an international condemnation of any Turkish Interference in CY EEZ.

At present all CY can do is to protest after the event. Protests which fall on deaf ears. I want a situation where bigger powers will have no choice but to tell Turkey to back down.

Just like the frequent war games that go on between Hellenic Air Force and mogolistan jets over the eastern Aegean, you can be certain that any mogolistani naval activity around Cyprus is closely shadowed by a Greek submarine, both for intelligence gathering purposes (i.e. learn as much as possible about enemy equipment and operating doctrine), and also as a deterrent. In the littoral waters around islands and near coastlines, there is very little a surface ship can do to protect itself against a submarine.

...and Turkey has no anti-submarine vessels I suppose? Damn NATO.