Cyprus-Forum.com

[boomerang]

Although many of the points in the post above are correct, it does not necessarily mean that Turkey will 'abandon' the TC's for EU membership.

The problem is, it may be quite possible that by the end of the year, the EU may just decide to abandon Turkish EU accession negotiations due to the very slow progress being made and enter into a close association agreement instead which would tie Turkey to the west and have most of the EU benefits, or it may decide to sidestep Cyprus by using other means.

The Sweedish presidency of the EU looks like they will try and resurect the Finnish formula of 3 years ago which would allow Turkey to open her ports and airports to Cyprus in exchange for the direct trade with TC's and perhaps the return of Varosha.

This would put Cyprus in a VERY difficult position because there would be very little room to manouver and if Cyprus didn't agree then all the blame for rejection of this formula would fall on us. In that way, it would be very easy for the EU to continue the accession negotiations with Turkey.

It is no secret that Sweden is a very keen supporter of Turkish EU accession so I do not expect an easy ride towards the end of the year.

Wrong Mikkie, the turks don't give a shit about the tcs...hell they don't even give a shit about their own population...What is at stake here is the foothold on Cyprus...

Whether this is enough for them to abandon EU dreams, only the deep state has a say on this...

[CopperLine]

Supposing the AKP now decide that, actually, they're no longer interested in EU membership. What then for Cyprus ?

Do you think that this is EVER likely to be the case?

Definately.

Then why don't they withdraw from the negotiations?

Why would Turkey be wasting our time?

Every time I monitor the Turkish media, you get the impression that the country is gripped by EU euphoria.

Far from it....have you ever been to Turkey or talked with well educated Turks...they understand that they will never get in whatever they do.

Yes mate. I have been to Turkey and spoken to some very educated Turks.

They all seem to think that Turkey's future lies with the EU!!

It is true that many Turks want EU membership and in general terms the more educated, the more left leaning, the more secular someone is the more likely they support EU membership. But the fact remains that the profile that I have just described are not in government. Instead one has a more limited education (and certainly less internationally educated), more right-leaning, more nationalist and more religious governing party.

Where three, four, five years ago popular enthusiasm for EU membership was at its height, now it is almost at its lowest for the last twenty years. If the AKP has exhausted the usefulness of EU accession negotiations to its purposes then I can easily see the AKP implicitly saying that they're no longer interested in the EU.

Should that be the case then all those people who rest their arguments about Cyprus on Turkey's EU membership bid will have lost their only card. That was the basis of my initial question.

[Kikapu]

Supposing the AKP now decide that, actually, they're no longer interested in EU membership. What then for Cyprus ?

Do you think that this is EVER likely to be the case?

Definately.

Then why don't they withdraw from the negotiations?

Why would Turkey be wasting our time?

Every time I monitor the Turkish media, you get the impression that the country is gripped by EU euphoria.

Far from it....have you ever been to Turkey or talked with well educated Turks...they understand that they will never get in whatever they do.

You don't know any well educated Turks in Turkey. All you know are all the uneducated nationalist and religious right that you can relate to. Right there it tells us what your level of education is since it is the educated Turks who see themselves as Europeans and want to be part of the EU.

[EPSILON]

i dont thinka ll the pressur eint he world will help turkey is going to ignore it and try and do what it wants as always

Totally Agree.

Την ίδια στιγμή, η Αγκυρα φαίνεται ότι μεθοδεύει την προσπάθεια εξασφάλισης ανταλλαγμάτων για την επαναλειτουργία της Θεολογικής Σχολής της Χάλκης. Ετσι, αν και στην απευθείας επικοινωνία με την Αθήνα δεν έχει τεθεί σχετικό ζήτημα, μέσω τρίτων και κυρίως Αμερικανών, η Τουρκία διαμηνύει ότι η λειτουργία τουρκικού πανεπιστημίου στη Θράκη είναι το «κλειδί» για το άνοιγμα της Χάλκης, ενδεχόμενο που η ελληνική πλευρά δεν δέχεται καν να συζητήσει.

Etsi doulevei h Tourkia kai bravo tis.!!!ena ena thema kai panta kati pairnei

[Paphitis]

Copperline wrote:

It is true that many Turks want EU membership and in general terms the more educated, the more left leaning, the more secular someone is the more likely they support EU membership. But the fact remains that the profile that I have just described are not in government. Instead one has a more limited education (and certainly less internationally educated), more right-leaning, more nationalist and more religious governing party.

What you say certainly makes sense, however it is quite ironic that the AKP which is the party which generally speaking are supported by the less educated non secular constituency, is the main driving force behind Turkey's EU accession.

Those that are more likely to be against Turkey's EU admission are more likely to be the highly educated, right leaning, highly secular military leaders of the country, due to their unique status with the state and due to the fact that the very same people consider Cyprus to be vital to Turkey's strategic interests. And yet I find it ironic that this is by no means the case in reality!!

It could be that Turkey really does not have any control or say in the matter and will be pushed towards EU membership in order to maintain the nation's secularism. This of course is something that the Generals would like, but the sticking point for them is Cyprus and the fact that they will not be able to influence their country politically.

Copperline wrote:

Where three, four, five years ago popular enthusiasm for EU membership was at its height, now it is almost at its lowest for the last twenty years. If the AKP has exhausted the usefulness of EU accession negotiations to its purposes then I can easily see the AKP implicitly saying that they're no longer interested in the EU.

I would have to disagree with this. Everything the AKP has done over the last few years seems to indicate that it is in fact this party that is the main driving force at this point in time. So if the AKP is not going to abandon the EU, then imagine want might occur when they are ousted from Government.

Copperline wrote:

Should that be the case then all those people who rest their arguments about Cyprus on Turkey's EU membership bid will have lost their only card. That was the basis of my initial question.

Agreed.

But I seem to think that other forces are at play here, which desperately want to see Turkey become an EU member. These forces are not going to allow Cyprus to be an obstacle which means that the Cyprus problem will be solved one way or another. I believe that Turkey will increasingly be pressured to make some very serious concessions, such as those mentioned earlier in this thread.

I don't think it will be easy at all for Turkey to turn its back on the EU, and in fact I will say it may even be impossible.

[Jerry]

Supposing the AKP now decide that, actually, they're no longer interested in EU membership. What then for Cyprus ?

Then they will soon be running out of spare parts for their F16s. The US wants Turkey in the EU in order to moderate its islamic aspirations and as an example of "democracy" to states in the region. Given the current state of the world economy Turkey would be mad not to want to join the wealthier European club. Apart from the Cyprus issue how would Turkey not benefit from not joining the EU?

[CopperLine]

What we would like to see and what is likely to happen are often quite different.

I would like to see Turkey as an EU member, not just for reasons of Cyprus but also because it will, in my view, strengthen the EU on the one hand and protect Turkish citizens on the other hand. However, I remain sceptical of the previously expressed enthusiasm of the AKP and remain to be convinced that the AKP is sincere in its embrace of Euroland. I may be wrong, of course.

[james_mav]

turkey's ascension to the EU is only one prong of a strategy for achieving a solution to the Cyprus problem. Obviously if turkey want join the EU, the Cyprus problem will be solved on the terms largely of the Republic of Cyprus.

However, even if turkey does not want to join the EU, or are not permitted to join, the Cyprus problem will force turkey to massively disengage from Europe in general if it is allowed to go on further, either that or settle every single individual action brought against the military and the government of turkey by citizens and owners of property in the Republic of Cyprus.

from http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/english/domestic/11553480.asp?gid=244

The total cost of the cases is calculated as being around $40 billion. Akgün said Turkey should focus on taking legal measures against such cases rather than making political reactions. "We need to seek technical solutions that will make the court’s decision meaningless and find a way to push Greek Cypriots into a corner," he said.

[insan]

Supposing the AKP now decide that, actually, they're no longer interested in EU membership. What then for Cyprus ?

Do you think that this is EVER likely to be the case?

Definately.

Then why don't they withdraw from the negotiations?

Why would Turkey be wasting our time?

Every time I monitor the Turkish media, you get the impression that the country is gripped by EU euphoria.

Far from it....have you ever been to Turkey or talked with well educated Turks...they understand that they will never get in whatever they do.

Yes mate. I have been to Turkey and spoken to some very educated Turks.

They all seem to think that Turkey's future lies with the EU!!

It is true that many Turks want EU membership and in general terms the more educated, the more left leaning, the more secular someone is the more likely they support EU membership. But the fact remains that the profile that I have just described are not in government. Instead one has a more limited education (and certainly less internationally educated), more right-leaning, more nationalist and more religious governing party.

Where three, four, five years ago popular enthusiasm for EU membership was at its height, now it is almost at its lowest for the last twenty years. If the AKP has exhausted the usefulness of EU accession negotiations to its purposes then I can easily see the AKP implicitly saying that they're no longer interested in the EU.

Should that be the case then all those people who rest their arguments about Cyprus on Turkey's EU membership bid will have lost their only card. That was the basis of my initial question.

Every capitalist European country that dominantly governed by right wing party(Not nationalists and ultra-conservatives) wants Turkey's EU accession. The strings of political parties in power r in the hands of wealthy, local and foreign businessmen of that country. Socialists, ultra-nationalists and ultra conservatives r against EU and do everything possible(legal, illegal) to stop expnasion of "imperialist" EU.... Anti-Globalism...

[paliometoxo]

i dont thinka ll the pressur eint he world will help turkey is going to ignore it and try and do what it wants as always

Totally Agree.

Την ίδια στιγμή, η Αγκυρα φαίνεται ότι μεθοδεύει την προσπάθεια εξασφάλισης ανταλλαγμάτων για την επαναλειτουργία της Θεολογικής Σχολής της Χάλκης. Ετσι, αν και στην απευθείας επικοινωνία με την Αθήνα δεν έχει τεθεί σχετικό ζήτημα, μέσω τρίτων και κυρίως Αμερικανών, η Τουρκία διαμηνύει ότι η λειτουργία τουρκικού πανεπιστημίου στη Θράκη είναι το «κλειδί» για το άνοιγμα της Χάλκης, ενδεχόμενο που η ελληνική πλευρά δεν δέχεται καν να συζητήσει.

Etsi doulevei h Tourkia kai bravo tis.!!!ena ena thema kai panta kati pairnei

pe tu ta ! afou en telia spastikos jeinos en katalavi tpt k neuriazo kathe fora pou lalei malakies! en na ton kamo block sto telos spazi mu ta neura