Cyprus-Forum.com

[erolz3]

It sounds like you are saying that the AKP would sell the TCs out, but they can't do it at the moment because they are not politically strong enough...?

Yes that is what I am saying.

Let me just be clearer though. I do not know if AKP would like to be able to 'sell out' the TC , I am just saying the question is pretty irrelevant if one beleives as I do that even if they did they do not have the ability to do so at this point in time.

AKP does want as far as I can see to try and progress EU accession. However it will not put such a desire over the greater desire it has to stay in power in Turkey. If progressing EU accesion involves doing something that will jepodise its ability to remain in power, as I think a 'sell out' of TC would, then it will not do this.

These are just my personal views.

It is also my personal view that the idea that there could never be a senario where Turkey decides it is more in her self interest to abandon the support she has given to the TC community historicaly is unrealistic. A time may come when Turkey in her own self interests decideds that she can no longer support the TC community as she has so far and that those in power can stop such support without risk of their own political survivability. I just think this is not the case in Turkey today and see little chance of that changing in the near or even medium terms.

[Tim Drayton]

I occasionally read Stratfor, which although apolitical, is quite bullish on the likelihood of Turkey evolving into a regional power, based primarily on her geo-strategic position. In this analysis, the position is taken that Turkey's ongoing occupation of Cyprus and support for the TC regime is becoming a burden to Turkey, and suggests that Turkey might sell out the TCs in order to just put the whole thing behind her.

Cyprus: Post-Election Tensions and Turkey's Position

Summary

The election of a new prime minister for Turkish Cyprus will complicate reunification talks between the island’s Greek and Turkish sides. That complication could in turn cause a snag in Turkey’s plans to join the European Union and claim its status as a regional power.

Analysis

Greek Cypriot President Demetris Christofias and Turkish Cypriot President Mehmet Ali Talat met April 21 and pledged their commitment to continuing with reunification negotiations. The two leaders have met 26 times thus far in the negotiation process, which began in September 2008 and is meant to lead to the reunification of the Turkish and Greek sides of the eastern Mediterranean island. The April 21 meeting was the first the two presidents have held since Talat’s Republican Turkish Party lost to the right-wing National Unity Party, led by former Prime Minister Dervis Eroglu, in parliamentary elections April 19.

Eroglu’s election victory complicates the reunification talks. The small island with a population of just over 1 million people is divided along the 1974 armistice “Green Line” that runs straight through the capital of Nicosia. The impoverished Turkish political entity is in the north, and the financially well-off (due to tourism and banking) Greek side — which is also an EU member — is in the south. For the Turkish north, the main concern has thus far been retaining a separate political identity from the Greek south, while the Greek Cypriots demand nothing short of a complete unification that would afford their more populous entity firm political control over the country.

The two sides were slowly working toward an agreement following July 2008 concessions by Talat to the Greek Cypriot demands of single citizenship and a single political entity for the entire island. Eroglu’s election as prime minister is now calling those concessions into question; the right-wing politician stated April 20 that his position on the question of sovereignty has not changed: “There are two peoples, two states and two democracies on the island of Cyprus. We support any settlement … within this framework.” While Talat remains in charge of the negotiation process, the incoming prime minister has said he wants to send his own envoy to the negotiations from now on.

Meanwhile Ankara, the traditional ally of the Turkish Cypriot side, is concerned that any snag in the reunification process in Cyprus could throw a wrench into its accession talks with the EU and into its plan to rise as a regional power. Cyprus is simply an issue Turkey would rather see disappear. It might have been a key piece of the rivalry between Ankara and Athens in the 1970s and 1980s, but the increasingly powerful and active Turkey sees it as a nuisance and a vestige of a less ambitious foreign policy.

Turkey intervened militarily in 1974 on behalf of the Turkish north in order to prevent a coup d’etat by the Greek Cypriots, whom Ankara feared would seek to unify the island with mainland Greece, thus giving the rival Athens a substantial piece of real estate in the eastern Mediterranean. Since then, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (recognized only by Ankara) has survived on handouts and military protection from mainland Turkey. Invading Cyprus was an important countermove to a potential Greek challenge in 1974 but, 35 years later — as Turkey’s ambitions are much greater than mere competition with Athens — Turkey would rather forget the island exists.

"Turkey intervened militarily in 1974 on behalf of the Turkish north ..."

That is at least one thing they have got wrong. The "Turkish north" was artificially constructed through ethnic cleansing and forced relocation following the 1974 intervention. Prior to that, Turkish Cypriots lived all over the island and 70% of the population of what is now the "Turkish north" was Greek Cypriot.

Ankara is in the middle of complicated geopolitical maneuvering. It is resurging, becoming a more dominant regional player in the Middle East — where the United States seeks its support to resolve various regional conflagrations — and in the Caucasus. In the Caucasus, Ankara has been looking to normalize its relationship with Armenia in order to become more involved in the entire region, but has to tread carefully in order not to go too far and irk Russia. Meanwhile, Ankara is also looking to continue negotiations with Europe but is taking a much more firm stance on the EU accession process. With U.S. backing, Turkey is making a case that Europe needs it more than it needs Europe and that the negotiations for EU accession need to reflect that Turkey is not a second-rate power, but an equal partner in the negotiation process. This is complicated by the fact that Europeans are wary of Turkish membership, particularly the EU powerhouses Germany and France.

However, if the Cypriot negotiations stall, much of the blame (whether deservedly or not) will fall on Anakara’s shoulders. European powers like Germany and France can use a Turkish “failure” to resolve the Cypriot issue as proof that Ankara is not ready for the EU club. For much of his previous stints as prime minister, Eroglu was seen as a strong Turkish ally, which means that Ankara will be again expected to force him to fall in line. However, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) do not have the same close ties to Eroglu that previous Turkish governments (and the Turkish military in particular) had. In fact Erdogan and Eroglu see eye to eye on very few things. Erdogan has already given Eroglu a warning, stating, “It would be very wrong for the new government to end the negotiations or to continue the negotiations on a basis different then the one that has been followed so far. … The process must continue exactly as before.”

But words may not be enough to force the new Turkish Cypriot prime minister to change his stance, particularly if he finds support in the opposition to Erdogan and the AKP in Turkey proper — especially among the ultra-secularists. Particularly damning will be a perception that Erdogan is hanging fellow Turks out to dry in exchange for membership in the EU, where Turkey is not welcome anyway.

(emphasis mine)

http://www.stratfor.com/memberships/136409/analysis/20090421_cyprus_post_election_tensions_and_turkeys_position

[Viewpoint]

No doubt the Turks can sell a withdrawal from Cyprus as a great victory. Just like they sold a brutal invasion and occupation as a "peace operation". As long as they leave the island, I frankly don't care how they choose to explain it for domestic consumption. Maybe they should just come clean and tell it like it is: another bloody stain in Turkey's history. Getting out of Cyprus is a moral imperative. It "sells out" nobody, least of all the Turkish Cypriots who have been marginalised, corrupted and led into economic ruin and international isolation.

I dont agree with you Turkey has been our one and only life line in the face or GC discrimination aggression and manipulation.

[Sotos]

No doubt the Turks can sell a withdrawal from Cyprus as a great victory. Just like they sold a brutal invasion and occupation as a "peace operation". As long as they leave the island, I frankly don't care how they choose to explain it for domestic consumption. Maybe they should just come clean and tell it like it is: another bloody stain in Turkey's history. Getting out of Cyprus is a moral imperative. It "sells out" nobody, least of all the Turkish Cypriots who have been marginalised, corrupted and led into economic ruin and international isolation.

I dont agree with you Turkey has been our one and only life line in the face or GC discrimination aggression and manipulation.

The problem in Cyprus is the Turkish aggression and expansionism. Cyprus is suffering for the last 400 years because of this. If it wasn't for the Turks Cyprus would be a peaceful democratic island.

[Hermes]

No doubt the Turks can sell a withdrawal from Cyprus as a great victory. Just like they sold a brutal invasion and occupation as a "peace operation". As long as they leave the island, I frankly don't care how they choose to explain it for domestic consumption. Maybe they should just come clean and tell it like it is: another bloody stain in Turkey's history. Getting out of Cyprus is a moral imperative. It "sells out" nobody, least of all the Turkish Cypriots who have been marginalised, corrupted and led into economic ruin and international isolation.

I dont agree with you Turkey has been our one and only life line in the face or GC discrimination aggression and manipulation.

I think thirty-five years of isolation has led to delusion, paranoia and depression.

[Viewpoint]

No doubt the Turks can sell a withdrawal from Cyprus as a great victory. Just like they sold a brutal invasion and occupation as a "peace operation". As long as they leave the island, I frankly don't care how they choose to explain it for domestic consumption. Maybe they should just come clean and tell it like it is: another bloody stain in Turkey's history. Getting out of Cyprus is a moral imperative. It "sells out" nobody, least of all the Turkish Cypriots who have been marginalised, corrupted and led into economic ruin and international isolation.

I dont agree with you Turkey has been our one and only life line in the face or GC discrimination aggression and manipulation.

I think thirty-five years of isolation has led to delusion, paranoia and depression.

Have you been to the TRNC and met TCs?

[Hermes]

No doubt the Turks can sell a withdrawal from Cyprus as a great victory. Just like they sold a brutal invasion and occupation as a "peace operation". As long as they leave the island, I frankly don't care how they choose to explain it for domestic consumption. Maybe they should just come clean and tell it like it is: another bloody stain in Turkey's history. Getting out of Cyprus is a moral imperative. It "sells out" nobody, least of all the Turkish Cypriots who have been marginalised, corrupted and led into economic ruin and international isolation.

I dont agree with you Turkey has been our one and only life line in the face or GC discrimination aggression and manipulation.

I think thirty-five years of isolation has led to delusion, paranoia and depression.

Have you been to the TRNC and met TCs?

I don't think I know of a place called the "TRNC". I checked and it doesn't officially exist. A sort of mass delusion. I have been to occupied northern Cyprus, however. I looked long and hard for some Turkish Cypriots but I couldn't find any. Lots of Turkish soldiers pretending to be civilians and quite a few Anatolian settlers and British criminals. But not many T/Cs I'm afraid. Very sad. Still I'm told there are some there so maybe they had gone fishing...

[The Cypriot]

No doubt the Turks can sell a withdrawal from Cyprus as a great victory. Just like they sold a brutal invasion and occupation as a "peace operation". As long as they leave the island, I frankly don't care how they choose to explain it for domestic consumption. Maybe they should just come clean and tell it like it is: another bloody stain in Turkey's history. Getting out of Cyprus is a moral imperative. It "sells out" nobody, least of all the Turkish Cypriots who have been marginalised, corrupted and led into economic ruin and international isolation.

I dont agree with you Turkey has been our one and only life line in the face or GC discrimination aggression and manipulation.

I think thirty-five years of isolation has led to delusion, paranoia and depression.

Have you been to the TRNC and met TCs?

I don't think I know of a place called the "TRNC". I checked and it doesn't officially exist. A sort of mass delusion. I have been to occupied northern Cyprus, however. I looked long and hard for some Turkish Cypriots but I couldn't find any. Lots of Turkish soldiers pretending to be civilians and quite a few Anatolian settlers and British criminals. But not many T/Cs I'm afraid. Very sad. Still I'm told there are some there so maybe they had gone fishing...

Or maybe they were 'sleeping with the fishes'...

[polis]

No doubt the Turks can sell a withdrawal from Cyprus as a great victory. Just like they sold a brutal invasion and occupation as a "peace operation". As long as they leave the island, I frankly don't care how they choose to explain it for domestic consumption. Maybe they should just come clean and tell it like it is: another bloody stain in Turkey's history. Getting out of Cyprus is a moral imperative. It "sells out" nobody, least of all the Turkish Cypriots who have been marginalised, corrupted and led into economic ruin and international isolation.

I dont agree with you Turkey has been our one and only life line in the face or GC discrimination aggression and manipulation.

I think thirty-five years of isolation has led to delusion, paranoia and depression.

[Viewpoint]

No doubt the Turks can sell a withdrawal from Cyprus as a great victory. Just like they sold a brutal invasion and occupation as a "peace operation". As long as they leave the island, I frankly don't care how they choose to explain it for domestic consumption. Maybe they should just come clean and tell it like it is: another bloody stain in Turkey's history. Getting out of Cyprus is a moral imperative. It "sells out" nobody, least of all the Turkish Cypriots who have been marginalised, corrupted and led into economic ruin and international isolation.

I dont agree with you Turkey has been our one and only life line in the face or GC discrimination aggression and manipulation.

I think thirty-five years of isolation has led to delusion, paranoia and depression.

Have you been to the TRNC and met TCs?

I don't think I know of a place called the "TRNC". I checked and it doesn't officially exist. A sort of mass delusion. I have been to occupied northern Cyprus, however. I looked long and hard for some Turkish Cypriots but I couldn't find any. Lots of Turkish soldiers pretending to be civilians and quite a few Anatolian settlers and British criminals. But not many T/Cs I'm afraid. Very sad. Still I'm told there are some there so maybe they had gone fishing...

OK let me try another way have you any TC friends?

Plus did you answer my qyestion are you Oracle, please be honest.