Cyprus and Australia top sorry lot of economies
27th April 2009, 15:00 WST
Cyprus rarely makes the news. But it’s name is up in lights — and for just one really good reason. When the International Monetary Fund released its latest dire forecasts for the global economy last week, there was only one country in the developed world expected to enjoy growth through this year.
And that country was Cyprus.
The IMF reckons the island nation of about 850,000 people will grow 0.3 per cent this year and 2.1 per cent next year.
Why, when every other country in the developed is going backwards, is this speck of a place growing?
The Cyprus High Commission highlighted its financial links to the Middle East (it had grown into a financial centre since the fall of Lebanon in the 1970s), its strong tourism industry and the “balanced” way the place is run.
“It has been sane,” one official said. “We don’t have exposure to those sub-prime mortgages.”
But even in this economic oasis, growth of just 0.3 per cent is pretty poor. It is just that in comparison to the rest of the world, it’s startlingly good.
Which brings us to Australia, which is predicted to contract 1.4 per cent this year before pumping out an absolutely underwhelming 0.6 per cent in 2010.
Frighteningly, Australia’s figures put it as the second strongest developed economy over the next two years behind Cyprus.
It could be worse. Much worse.
Bottom of the table is Ireland. The Celtic Tiger’s economy will be cut down to nothing more than a stray cat, after three consecutive years of negative growth (minus 2.3 per cent, minus 8 per cent, minus 3 per cent).
Unemployment is tipped to climb to 7.8 per cent in Australia by next year. That equates to at least an extra 250,000 people out of work, although based on the IMF’s own growth forecasts this might be light by 100,000 people or so.
Again, there’s much worse beyond Australia’s shores.
Unemployment is tipped to reach a mind-boggling 19.3 per cent in Spain, 13 per cent in Ireland and be firmly in double-digit territory in the US, Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, Greece, Portugal and the Slovak Republic.
In other words, almost a third of the developed world will suffer 10 per cent plus unemployment. (It’s better, again, in Cyprus where unemployment is tipped to peak at 4.6 per cent.)
Ah, to be in Cyprus.
SHANE WRIGHT ECONOMICS EDITOR
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx? ... tID=138338
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Stand tall and proud Cyprus, you are shoulder to shoulder with the big boys now...