The Turkish Cypriots are aiming at the creation of a Confederation of two sovereign states, which is common knowledge that this is highly unlikely that an Greek Cypriot will accept as a solution. While, the Greek Cypriots are naturally seeking an evolution of their current Republic of Cypriot.
For the Greek Cypriots, they have witnessed the unhappy experience of seeing Northern Cyprus slip away year-after-year. Turkey, under mounting pressure from the EU to open its ports has resulted in stalemate, although nothing would really be achieved besides its confirmation of Partition if Turkey should open its ports under the scenarios of the TRNC and "Greek Cyprus". This would no doubt be a disaster for the Greek Cypriot in a political sense as, although it would open an advantageous lucrative economic opportunity for them, they would have to accept a downgrade to being known as the "Republic of Cyprus" to "Greek Cyprus".
Here's my point, let's say the talks eventually produce a Settlement Plan and BOTH Greek and Turkish Cypriot sides Reject it before end of President Talat's Presidential (of the TRNC) term in April 2010 - which is what is now being seriously considered with the higher EU circles, what would happen then? Would it be the end?
Many Greek Cypriots believe that Turkey will eventually turn on it's support of the TRNC when its EU application reaches its pinnacle stage of full membership. They believe that the current talks are a waste of time and that the EU will never force the removal of the isolation on Northern Cyprus (as they did after the many failed verbal promises of removing the isolation of Northern Cyprus prior to the 2004 Annan Plan referendum). And, why should the Turkish Cypriots believe that the EU actually will act against the wishes of the Greek Cypriots again this time?
So, my ultimate question is this, what really has the Greek Cypriots got to lose if they reject ANY Plan that falls short of what they want when the EU clearly dropped their verbal promises prior to the former Annan Plan. What REAL Choice does President Talat have? Is he wasting his time? Will the EU act differently this time? It's all very sinacle, I know, but even the U.S has reiterated its "Cyprus Policy"!
Is Dervis Eroglu right to dismissing ALL Pointless Unification talks based on a Federation and demand recognition only? Do we, the Turkish Cypriots, really have any other choice but to either accept the Greek Cypriot formula of evolution, or stand behind PM Eroglu?
Everyday that goes by, particularly after so many failures and upsets, it's becoming obvious that a Federal formula based on two founding Constituent states is looking like an impossible task. I believe President Talat is now cornered, by both the Turkish Cypriots and the international strength of the Greek Cypriot position and Turkey's failure in truly supporting its former Confederal, federal or Recognition (of the TRNC) policies.
It's time for the Turkish Cypriots, and the Greek Cypriots, to make up their minds as the Cyprus situation will either push its people into a similar scenario unfortunately seen in the former Yugoslavia (conflict due to frustrated Turkish and Greek Cypriots due to their respective reasons land ownership, right to return, recognition, etc, etc) or Turkey annexing Northern Cyprus and ending its EU dream. The problem with the later is that we all know how much the U.S and U.K want Turkey to be an EU member state! Then, does that mean that in the end the U.S will break ranks and recognise the TRNC like it did with Kosovo?
The Greek Cypriots may be willing to wait until the end, but exactly where, at which real point is the end?