A RECENT survey revealed that both Greek and Turkish Cypriots may be pessimistic about a Cyprus solution yet both communities remain hopeful that the two leaders can reach a mutually acceptable solution.
According to a study presented yesterday by the Brussels-based think tank, the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), 56 per cent of Greek Cypriots and 61 per cent of Turkish Cypriots are pessimistic about the direct talks ongoing between the two community leaders.
However, the study revealed that 64 per cent of Greek Cypriots and 65 per cent of Turkish Cypriots expressed hope that the two leaders reach a mutually acceptable solution.
The poll, conducted in partnership with local researchers in January and February of this year, involved 1,000 respondents on the island.
According to the poll, 80 per cent of Greek Cypriots want a unified state with a central government, while 71 per cent of Turkish Cypriots are in favour of two separate states with international recognition.
A solution entailing a bizonal, bicommunal federation gets 44 per cent of the Greek Cypriot vote and 49 per cent of the Turkish Cypriot vote.
Only ten per cent of Greek Cypriots, compared to 33 per cent of Turkish Cypriots, wish to see the continuation of the status quo.
A federal solution with two sovereign states is preferred by nine per cent of Greek Cypriots and 39 per cent of Turkish Cypriots.
Asked what they would vote in a new referendum, assuming the talks end in agreement, 19 per cent of Greek Cypriots and 30 per cent of Turkish Cypriots said they would certainly vote YES, while 25 per cent of Greek Cypriots and 29 per cent of Turkish Cypriots would certainly vote NO.
The swing vote remains substantial with 44 per cent of Greek Cypriots and 21 per cent of Turkish Cypriots stating they are undecided as to which way they’ll vote.
Among the Greek Cypriot community, 24 per cent of DISY supporters would certainly vote YES, as would 21 per cent of AKEL voters, 19 per cent of DIKO voters and 16 per cent of EDEK voters.
Among the Turkish Cypriot community, 61 per cent of the Republican Turkish Party would certainly vote YES, as would 46 per cent of the Communal Democracy Party, 11 per cent of the Democratic Party and 16 per cent of the National Unity Party.
http://www.cyprus-mail.com/news/main.php?id=45090
So lets analyze some of the important findings of this poll one by one:
According to the poll, 80 per cent of Greek Cypriots want a unified state with a central government, while 71 per cent of Turkish Cypriots are in favour of two separate states with international recognition.
It is crystal clear who wants a true unification and who doesn't. The vast majority of Greek Cypriots want their island truly and fully unified. On the other hand the majority of Turkish Cypriots want partition.
The only reason that TCs negotiate is because they failed to gain recognition for the pseudo state they declared on land stolen from Greek Cypriots. Since what they truly want is partition but they can not gain one directly, they are trying to gain it indirectly via some disguised partition agreements like the Annan plan. This is the reason why those who want partition accepted the Annan partition plan, why those who want unification rejected the Annan partition plan.
A solution entailing a bizonal, bicommunal federation gets 44 per cent of the Greek Cypriot vote and 49 per cent of the Turkish Cypriot vote.
All major Greek Cypriot parties support a solution based on BBF. Some, like DIKO and EDEK, support a better form of BBF, with very strong central goverment, a true Federation, return of all refugees and no discounts in democracy and human rights. Some other parties, like DISY and possibly AKEL, are willing to accept a worst kind of BBF.
What the poll shows is that any kind of BBF, even the best possible one, would get the vote of just 44% of Greek Cypriots. This means that for any BBF proposal to have even a slight chance to be approved by GCs, it needs to be at least as good as the one asked by DIKO and EDEK, and probably even better than that. Anything worst will not stand a chance.
Only ten per cent of Greek Cypriots, compared to 33 per cent of Turkish Cypriots, wish to see the continuation of the status quo.
This answers the question of who wants solution more.
A federal solution with two sovereign states is preferred by nine per cent of Greek Cypriots and 39 per cent of Turkish Cypriots.
Yet another clear indication that there is absolutely no way that Greek Cypriots will accept a bad BBF proposal that will resemble a confederation and not a true federation with a strong and democratic central government.
Asked what they would vote in a new referendum, assuming the talks end in agreement, 19 per cent of Greek Cypriots and 30 per cent of Turkish Cypriots said they would certainly vote YES, while 25 per cent of Greek Cypriots and 29 per cent of Turkish Cypriots would certainly vote NO.
This means that the leaders reaching some agreement between them means nothing. Most people are not willing to accept just whatever "solution" is proposed to them, and a large percentage of them are pessimistic and do not even expect that a good and acceptable solution can come out of these negotiations.
The conclusion of the whole poll in general is that Greek Cypriots want a true unification while the Turkish Cypriots want Partition. GCs would accept a BBF only if it is a true federation, democratic, with human rights and EU Acquis fully respected, while the TCs will accept a BBF only if it is a loose Confederation (BBC?) without democracy and with derogations from human rights and the EU Acquis.
Therefore there is no ground for any agreement to come from negotiations, and our policy should take into account this fact and act accordingly.
I hope and wish so. 
