Cyprus-Forum.com

[turkkan]

NTERNATIONAL
Talking Turkey
http://www.newsweek.com/id/192588

Obama's trip to Ankara promises to be a genuine meeting of minds.
By Grenville Byford | Newsweek Web Exclusive
Apr 4, 2009



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The Bush administration spent years trying to isolate people the Turkish government thought should be engaged—Iran, Syria, Hizbullah, Hamas, to name a few. The Obama administration broadly endorses engagement. Turkish-American relations are therefore about to change from being good despite fundamental disagreement to being a genuine meeting of minds. Some people in Washington have been screaming that Turkey's increasingly good relations with the countries in its neighborhood means it is "turning away from the West." Apparently they view international relations as a form of monogamy in which it's evidently dangerous to go out on a date. In fact, international relations are like business partnerships. An extensive Rolodex greatly increases a partner's value.

President Obama's visit this week to Turkey will also be unusual because, for once, America wants more from Turkey than Turkey wants from America. Turkey will respond generously because Barack Obama is likely to be around for a long time, and he will certainly remember anyone who helped make his first major foreign trip a success.

From Turkey's perspective, the most important item on the agenda is what it does not want: official U.S. recognition that what happened to the Armenians was genocide. I doubt Obama would have accepted an invitation to visit Turkey now if he was not planning to oppose a congressional resolution on the subject, or if he intended to use the G word on April 24, when he will make a statement commemorating the Armenian massacres of 1915. What this Turkish government will also ask for is unambiguous American backing for its plans to amend its present military-dictated Constitution along more democratic lines. They will not want to hear, once again, the Bush "we don't take sides" approach.
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Heading up America's agenda are two items on which there is much common ground. First, Iran. Obama has indicated he wants to open wide-ranging negotiations, but he will not rush into them without first testing the waters. Similarly, Obama is serious about making progress on Mideast peace. Like Tony Blair and Tayyip Erdogan, Obama is thought to recognize that Hamas can no longer be ignored, though he cannot possibly say so publicly. Turkey's leaders (and their advisers) can provide Obama with valuable insights, and help start the ball rolling. This would allow Obama to avoid political exposure in Washington for "talking to terrorists" until he has a sense of the other side's position. Before setting anything in motion, though, he likely wants to take the measure of Prime Minister Erdogan and President Abdullah Gül personally. Both should remember that the role of matchmaker is transitory, and the principals must soon talk alone. In the long term, there is also the potential for friction because America is probably less willing to compromise than Turkey and may terminate discussions that Turkey would choose to keep going. Turkey, after all, will suffer much more than the United States if sanctions against Iran are ratcheted up.

Obama would also like to get more help on Afghanistan, principally more Turkish soldiers. This is a potential source of friction. Since Obama managed during his NATO meeting to pry commitments from France and Britain for a few hundred additional personnel, it will be hard for Turkey to do nothing.

Another item is Iraq. What needs to be agreed upon is already in place (except Turkey's relatively uncontroversial agreement that it will act as a corridor for U.S. withdrawal). Turkey will want intelligence sharing about the Kuridstan Worker's Party, or PKK, to continue, but there is no indication it will not. America will want Turkey's discussions with the Iraqi Kurds to continue. After Gül's successful Iraq visit, why wouldn't they? Both sides are hoping that Iraq will remain stable as the United States withdraws, but there are no major items either might agree to that it is not already doing.

Then there is Cyprus, but the real problem here is between Turkey and the European Union. Europe wants Turkey to open its ports and airports to the Greek Cypriots. Turkey wants Europe to ease the commercial isolation of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in exchange, but the Greek Cypriots veto this. The United States can offer its support and its good offices, but it does not have much leverage over either the European Union or the Greek Cypriots. This is also broadly true of Turkey's EU entry negotiations.

A final item is the Nabucco pipeline bringing Central Asian gas to Europe via Turkey. Both America and Turkey would like to see it built. The question, however, is who will pay for it? Neither America nor Turkey has much spare cash right now.

And will Obama choose his Turkey visit to give a much anticipated speech of reconciliation to the world's Muslims? Of course not. Obama has to speak from the center of the Muslim World. Egypt must be the favorite, but a speech in Saudi Arabia would carry enormous symbolism, though I doubt the Saudis would go along. A good outside bet is Jordan. King Abdullah, remember, is a descendent of the Prophet—and a U.S. ally.

© 2009

[Kifeas]

NTERNATIONAL
Talking Turkey
http://www.newsweek.com/id/192588

Obama's trip to Ankara promises to be a genuine meeting of minds.
By Grenville Byford | Newsweek Web Exclusive
Apr 4, 2009



Please fill in the following information and we'll email this link.
Your Email Address
Recipient's Email Address

Separate multiple addresses with commas


The Bush administration spent years trying to isolate people the Turkish government thought should be engaged—Iran, Syria, Hizbullah, Hamas, to name a few. The Obama administration broadly endorses engagement. Turkish-American relations are therefore about to change from being good despite fundamental disagreement to being a genuine meeting of minds. Some people in Washington have been screaming that Turkey's increasingly good relations with the countries in its neighborhood means it is "turning away from the West." Apparently they view international relations as a form of monogamy in which it's evidently dangerous to go out on a date. In fact, international relations are like business partnerships. An extensive Rolodex greatly increases a partner's value.

President Obama's visit this week to Turkey will also be unusual because, for once, America wants more from Turkey than Turkey wants from America. Turkey will respond generously because Barack Obama is likely to be around for a long time, and he will certainly remember anyone who helped make his first major foreign trip a success.

From Turkey's perspective, the most important item on the agenda is what it does not want: official U.S. recognition that what happened to the Armenians was genocide. I doubt Obama would have accepted an invitation to visit Turkey now if he was not planning to oppose a congressional resolution on the subject, or if he intended to use the G word on April 24, when he will make a statement commemorating the Armenian massacres of 1915. What this Turkish government will also ask for is unambiguous American backing for its plans to amend its present military-dictated Constitution along more democratic lines. They will not want to hear, once again, the Bush "we don't take sides" approach.
Quantcast

Heading up America's agenda are two items on which there is much common ground. First, Iran. Obama has indicated he wants to open wide-ranging negotiations, but he will not rush into them without first testing the waters. Similarly, Obama is serious about making progress on Mideast peace. Like Tony Blair and Tayyip Erdogan, Obama is thought to recognize that Hamas can no longer be ignored, though he cannot possibly say so publicly. Turkey's leaders (and their advisers) can provide Obama with valuable insights, and help start the ball rolling. This would allow Obama to avoid political exposure in Washington for "talking to terrorists" until he has a sense of the other side's position. Before setting anything in motion, though, he likely wants to take the measure of Prime Minister Erdogan and President Abdullah Gül personally. Both should remember that the role of matchmaker is transitory, and the principals must soon talk alone. In the long term, there is also the potential for friction because America is probably less willing to compromise than Turkey and may terminate discussions that Turkey would choose to keep going. Turkey, after all, will suffer much more than the United States if sanctions against Iran are ratcheted up.

Obama would also like to get more help on Afghanistan, principally more Turkish soldiers. This is a potential source of friction. Since Obama managed during his NATO meeting to pry commitments from France and Britain for a few hundred additional personnel, it will be hard for Turkey to do nothing.

Another item is Iraq. What needs to be agreed upon is already in place (except Turkey's relatively uncontroversial agreement that it will act as a corridor for U.S. withdrawal). Turkey will want intelligence sharing about the Kuridstan Worker's Party, or PKK, to continue, but there is no indication it will not. America will want Turkey's discussions with the Iraqi Kurds to continue. After Gül's successful Iraq visit, why wouldn't they? Both sides are hoping that Iraq will remain stable as the United States withdraws, but there are no major items either might agree to that it is not already doing.

Then there is Cyprus, but the real problem here is between Turkey and the European Union. Europe wants Turkey to open its ports and airports to the Greek Cypriots. Turkey wants Europe to ease the commercial isolation of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in exchange, but the Greek Cypriots veto this. The United States can offer its support and its good offices, but it does not have much leverage over either the European Union or the Greek Cypriots. This is also broadly true of Turkey's EU entry negotiations.

A final item is the Nabucco pipeline bringing Central Asian gas to Europe via Turkey. Both America and Turkey would like to see it built. The question, however, is who will pay for it? Neither America nor Turkey has much spare cash right now.

And will Obama choose his Turkey visit to give a much anticipated speech of reconciliation to the world's Muslims? Of course not. Obama has to speak from the center of the Muslim World. Egypt must be the favorite, but a speech in Saudi Arabia would carry enormous symbolism, though I doubt the Saudis would go along. A good outside bet is Jordan. King Abdullah, remember, is a descendent of the Prophet—and a U.S. ally.

© 2009

[Raymanoff]

Obama have no power over EU... he can talk all he wants, NATO is useless anyway... he have more to loose than to gain... 18 months to go till the IRAQ love affair ends... u will be disposed after that and then the only source of gain u will have left is EU. U fuckers will never get into EU anyway.... ur last resort is to listen what French and Germans are telling you

[turkkan]

So? You have no leverage over frances and austrias decision to hold referendums in any eventual possible accession of turkey to the EU. In comparison to those two your veto is part of a larger string of vetoes against turkeys entry making any power you have over turkey null. At the same time those countries as well as a whole host of other EU countries have a wide range of relationships with turkey from excellent to good and trade in the billions as well as common strategic interests. All this means is that turkey wont get into the EU anytime in the next thirty years (while at the same time maintaining the customs agreements between them) but there wont be one change on the ground in Cyprus aside from the passage of time for the next thirty years also.

[Lit]

NTERNATIONAL
Talking Turkey
http://www.newsweek.com/id/192588

Obama's trip to Ankara promises to be a genuine meeting of minds.
By Grenville Byford | Newsweek Web Exclusive
Apr 4, 2009

How odd. You posted an article from last week. This article was published before Obama visited Turkey. Grenville no longer needs to speculate on what Obama is going to say in Turkey because it already occurred.

During his visit, President Obama has touched on freedom of press, the Kurdish issue, ethnic minorities, a Cyprus settlement based on a Bi-zonal, Bi-communal FEDERATION, the necessity of reopening Halki Seminary, the tragic events of 1915 which Obama previously called a genocide as well as opening the Armenian border. None of these are mentioned in the Grenville article because it is outdated therefore obsolete.

[Kikapu]

The United States is willing to offer all the help sought by the parties as they work toward a just and lasting settlement that reunifies Cyprus into a bizonal and bicommunal federation.

Tell that to Talat, because Talat thinks that FEDERATION means CONFEDERATION with Democratic and Human Right violations by asking the EU to turn a blind eye to EU laws.!

Hello Kiks,

I know you assisted Obama in his election campaign and so you do have a good insight into American Politics.

What is your assessment on the US position towards Cyprus and the new and improved relationship between the US and Turkey? There is some media speculation that Turkey will receive many concessions on Cyprus if Turkey plays an increased role in Afghanistan. There is also a lot of rhetoric about Turkey's perceived importance as a regional power.

What should Cyprus be doing today to build better relations with the US and should Cyprus apply to join the PfP?

Is our foreign diplomacy flawed when Cyprus seeks improved trade and tourism bilateral agreements with Iran and opens an embassy in Cuba, whilst snubbing the PfP making our small country the only EU member that is not part of the PfP and unable to partake in EU security initiatives.

It just does not make any sense IMHO.

Hello Paphitis,

I know you assisted Obama in his election campaign

Yeah, and anything less than flying on Air Force One, in the "jump seat" no less, will he ever be able to repay me.!

His re-election is just around the corner, therefore I'm waiting for his offer before then, or else.!

you do have a good insight into American Politics.

Look, I understand America's domestic politics more than I understand their foreign politics, and perhaps I'm not alone in this, since America's foreign policies are set at different levels to different countries. What one hears in the public spoken by our President is one thing, and what is spoken behind close doors is another. But since most of us only get to hear what is spoken in the public, one has to pay close attention to what is said, how it's said, what tone, and where. One needs to decipher what is really being said and in what context, then one might just understand some of our foreign policies.

I watched Obama's speech at the Turkish Parliament the other day live on TV and heard what Obama had to say, and also heard what Obama meant in what he said. I think the whole Turkish Parliament also heard what Obama meant and dare I say, they did not seem at all too pleased with most of what Obama talked about. I think Obama has been to Baptist church funerals in our southern states in the US where there is more excitement, than he had witnessed from the Turkish MP's, and in some ways, I can't say I blame them, that a foreign President coming to their own "house" and telling them off, and by a black man at that, no less, but nevertheless, Obama got all his points across and the reaction from the MP's in my view was very anaemic to say the least. The biggest reaction given by the MP's was when Obama used the Turkish word "evet" for YES, named two Turkish basketball players in the NBA, defeat of the PKK and about the EU entry support by the US.

What I heard from Obama was a very calculated speech with lots of direct and a lot of underlining messages in telling Turkey what they have done in the past, what their responsibilities are to their own people and minority rights to the Kurds, that penal codes need reforming to comply with the EU if they wanted to be member, what Turkey needs to do to help reunify Cyprus, Ataturks wishes were to be with the West and not East, must face past "ghosts" to move forward, referring to the Armenian Genocide which he never used the word per se, but he did use it in another way, which was to remind everyone in that room, that he supports the claim that it was a Genocide by saying to the MP's "much has been talked about my views on the issue". If the MP's were expecting Obama to say that he no longer support the Genocide claim, they were much disappointed, and it showed on their faces.

The Genocide bill in the US congress will be up for a vote in matter of few short months and it WILL pass. That was the reason in my view, as to why Obama chose to come to Turkey now than later, because after the Genocide vote is approved, I don't think Obama would have gotten as warm welcome as he did just before his speech at the Turkish Parliament. After his speech, he had to reach to shake peoples hands, as very few MP's offered their hands, as far as I could tell. Erdogan did have a polite embracing with Obama at one point, but that was it.

What is your assessment on the US position towards Cyprus and the new and improved relationship between the US and Turkey? There is some media speculation that Turkey will receive many concessions on Cyprus if Turkey plays an increased role in Afghanistan. There is also a lot of rhetoric about Turkey's perceived importance as a regional power.

I believe USA's position on Cyprus has not changed since the defeat of the Annan Plan under Bush's administration. They support "BBF" as ONE country without any sort of Partition, and they have said this not too long ago along with Britain. Lets face the truth here for a minute. The biggest ally USA has is not Turkey or Israel, or even Canada, but the United Kingdom and if the UK does not want partitioning of Cyprus as long as they got their bases secured, and I believe Christofias has already assured UK of that, the US will follow the UK on this one,, hence the fact Obama did not say anything about partition, 2-state solution as he did with Israel and Palestinians, lifting of embargoes, but talked about re-unifying the island by the 2 communities and that the US was ready to assist in any way as needed and told Turkey to do the same. So I don't think US is a negative for Cyprus.

First of all, somebody has to define for me what this NEW improved relationship is between Turkey and the US. Bush was Turkey's best friend who supported the AP and Turkey let him down by refusing to play ball by allowing the Americans to use US bases in Turkey at 100% for the Iraq war. Americans will not forget this anytime soon, despite offering 20+ Billion US tax dollars for Turkey to do so. Some say Turkey wanted more money, some say they got burned by the Americans during the first Gulf war with Iraq in 1991 that Turkey never got what was promised to them by the Americans, some say they took the moral high road by refusing to accept 20+ Billion Dollars. The last one is less likely scenario in my view. I believe, the real reason why Turkey did not want the Americans to open a northern front with Iraq, was not to let the Americans get anywhere close to the Kirkuk oil fields. I believe Turkey took the gamble, that if the Americans failed in Iraq, they could move in to secure those oil fields in the name of protecting few thousand Turkic people that live around there. Turkey never wanted those oil fields to fall into the hands of the Iraqi Kurds which one day, they may team up with the Kurds in Turkey to form a nation of their own with the new wealth they have gotten from the oil. The Iraqi Kurds played host to the US military and now they are in better standing than the Turks are. Perhaps when Obama was talking about Turkey future and forces that are trying to pull her from different directions, don't be surprised if that was not another underlining comment, that Turkey may end up broken into various part in the near future.

Someone also has to explain to me, what is it that Americans can give the Turks on Cyprus to get their help in Afghanistan. A full recognition of the "trnc".?? Where will that get Turkey with it's EU hopes that the US supports. No where to infinity I would say.! Since 2004, all the rules about Cyprus has changed by becoming a EU member. Most accept this reality, except for the "trnc" and Turkey perhaps. I tend to think, the US and Britain are thinking how they can benefit more by having a re-united Cyprus than anything else.

On Turkey's importance in the region as a "Regional Power" is always going to be in the shadows of Israel, which is much smaller in size but has a bigger punch and also has bigger friends than Turkey can get. Turkey may indeed flaunt it's military might in relationship to other Muslim countries in the region, but that's about it, but since Turkey will never have a showdown with Israel and the USA, Turkey's military might is hardly a benefit to the Muslim world in that region. It's just like having a very fast racing car, but you are not allowed to get it out of first gear.! Totally pointless in having the race car, wouldn't you say.?

What should Cyprus be doing today to build better relations with the US ?

As long as the RoC is willing to seek a settlement with he TC's in a True Democratic way with True Federation, which all Americans can relate to, I can't see why their relationship between them should be strained. The US has a good relationship with most of the members in the EU members, and the EU itself, and Cyprus being part of the team, can play along on most of the policies that the US support along with the EU. Of course, one cannot do this on all issues, like on Kosovo, but through diplomatic channels when situations are explained, other members will understand the stances Cyprus may taken against the flow now and then, even if they don't like it. Like Obama said to the Turkish Parliament, that we cannot agree on all the issues and that even in one's own country, that some issues cannot be agreed on by all. Also, despite the past mistakes by the US on Cyprus, it is never too late for Cyprus to support the US on some of their issues, such as war on terror & drugs and human trafficking as well as money laundering to terror originations. If Cyprus can offer any of her services in these areas, it will go a long way to win the Americans over.

should Cyprus apply to join the PfP?

I must confess to you, that I have not paid too much attention to this one way or the other, therefore I really canot give an honest opinion other than say, perhaps Cyprus does not want to show her hand in what she posseses in her arsenal when Turkish Troops are still in Cyprus. But upon a settlement, I would expect them to become a member of the pfp.

Is our foreign diplomacy flawed when Cyprus seeks improved trade and tourism bilateral agreements with Iran and opens an embassy in Cuba, whilst snubbing the PfP making our small country the only EU member that is not part of the PfP and unable to partake in EU security initiatives

.

As I write this, Raul Castro is holding meeting with US politicians to improve relationship with the US and to lift the embargoes. Obama is willing to do that soon I believe, therefore Cyprus should move soon to open an Embassy in Cuba, because sooner or later, Cuba will be liberated and Democratised, and they will remember who their friends were in the bad times, so to reward them in the good times. Same goes with Iran. The US are moving in the same direction, despite pissing Israel off. Time never stands still. Either you keep up with the times, or you will just get left behind. Cyprus on issues that matter to her, should be one step behind the US and the UK, because as soon as those two make the move to restore relationship with their old foes, Cyprus can step in there also riding on their "coat tails".

A personal message from me to all Cypriots. Cyprus's better days are really in front of us. All it needs to do, is to become one nation, one people, one country under a True Democracy, much like the Swiss have done with 4 different ethnic groups with large differences in their percentage numbers and yet, they are all equal citizens with one man one vote. They are the example on how civilized people can make it work.!

[CBBB]

As ever, a very incisive post from Kiks!

[Raymanoff]

Oh, i've been here also... oh boy.

[CBBB]

Oh, i've been here also... oh boy.

As the song say's (ish) "You've been everywhere man (off)"!

[EPSILON]

President Obama is ready to make a deal with Turkey over Cyprus, in exchange for greater co-operation in the Middle East.

Bloody cheek, what gives Obama the right to decide the future of Cypriots. The same old story - outsiders interfering in Cyprus. Obama should be banging heads together not selling Cyprus down the river.

Power ..this is what gives him the right