Cyprus-Forum.com

[boomerang]

So total control of a legalised northern state, and through it a large degree of interference in the Free Areas and in the central government and a "guaranteeship" to intervene at will.

Bleeding joke.

Has anyone read what the Turkish generals state? Turkey has always stated that it needs to protect its southern flank. They want the demise Cyprus as it exists today because they see it has successfully rose from the ashes. With the Turks, its a security issue. With any future agreement, the Turks request that the RoC:

1) Demilitarize.
2) Disband the National guard.
3) They want expanded intervention rights through ALL of Cyprus.
4) They want the exclusion of Cyprus from the common European defense policy.

Having the "TRNC" breaking away at a future date is just icing on the cake. Besides having the option of breaking away...they would also like to share in all of the RoC's natural resources.

I agree...

It makes no sence wanting a partition down the track...they will own the whole lot with your points...

[DT.]

Turkey getting weaker and EU getting stronger, most likely ..... and a shift in power etc.

You make it out to be an EU vs Turkey fight, when it is anything but that. How is turkey getting weaker btw? Its army is restructuring itself, it has developed a great defence industry that will soon cater for 50% of turkeys millitary needs and is getting contracts worldwide, in the next few years she will have one of the most modern armies in the region bar israel, its economic predictions for the next ten years are great and its middle class is growing. Her future looks anything but bleak.

Funny thing to say, have a read of this and I post an excerpt below.

http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=34788&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=e7c859d4a8

A comparison of Turkey's economic downturn with other developing economies reveals it is among the most rapidly shrinking economies in the world. Noting that other countries have managed to grow, or contract at lower rates despite the global crisis, Turkey's economic slowdown may have started even before the present crisis

[turkkan]

Before the crisis it was one of the fastest growing economies and under the AKP jumped from 26th biggest economy to 17th last year. Given that a good portion of her economy is based on industrial activity such as automobile building-all of whom have ordered their factories to stop building cars as no one worldwide is buying-its exports are constantly dropping (while imports are increasing) and its economy is shrinking. Eitherway, i was not talking about the next 2-3 years but the ten year outlook in which it has the potential to become a one trillion dollar economy.

[DT.]

Before the crisis it was one of the fastest growing economies and under the AKP jumped from 26th biggest economy to 17th last year. Given that a good portion of her economy is based on industrial activity such as automobile building-all of whom have ordered their factories to stop building cars as no one worldwide is buying-its exports are constantly dropping (while imports are increasing) and its economy is shrinking. Eitherway, i was not talking about the next 2-3 years but the ten year outlook in which it has the potential to become a one trillion dollar economy.

Dude, in 10 years you'll wish you were at todays levels.

[CopperLine]

If you ask the question what would suit Turkey and then ask the same question of RoC then I think that you get something like this :

X = No
? = possible/probably not

Unified, single state, unreformed constitution : Turkey NO RoC YES
Unified, single state, reformed constitution : Turkey YES RoC YES
Confederated, single state, reformed constitution : Turkey YES RoC YES
Federal, two state, reformed constitution : Turkey YES RoC PROBABLY NOT
Partition, two independent states : Turkey YES RoC NO

The question is what would suit Turkey, not necessarily what Turkey would want. The devil is of course in the detail, but an important consideration is, in my opinion that there is a considerable overlap of suiting both RoC and Turkey.

[DT.]

If you ask the question what would suit Turkey and then ask the same question of RoC then I think that you get something like this :

X = No
? = possible/probably not

Unified, single state, unreformed constitution : Turkey NO RoC YES
Unified, single state, reformed constitution : Turkey YES RoC YES
Confederated, single state, reformed constitution : Turkey YES RoC YES
Federal, two state, reformed constitution : Turkey YES RoC PROBABLY NOT
Partition, two independent states : Turkey YES RoC NO

The question is what would suit Turkey, not necessarily what Turkey would want. The devil is of course in the detail, but an important consideration is, in my opinion that there is a considerable overlap of suiting both RoC and Turkey.

How the hell can you have a confederated single state?

[repulsewarrior]

Canada was a Confederation up to 1982, it is still a country made up of many Nations.

Turkey, if you will
is the countervailing power
to a Cypriot goal: Mankind's gift
with the Modern Age, to keep

an end to subjugation

Thus,
What is Bi-Communal: if it is not a division that tears in two
What is Bi Zonal: if two parts does not divide the island

...

i say,
enclaves are not a dirty word
And Cypriots can demonstrate this thinking first;
the way, if we have Grace

i say,
National Assemblies make
our cultural sustainance thrive, why
not develop the diversity of our respective societies
by spotting the island, geographically.

why not?
are we Men or Human
this courage, how much it demonstrates our distinction as one People
Cypriots, the island's dwellers
through Tolerance, ...can Turkey refuse?

i say..., again

please read my manifesto

[repulsewarrior]

...Canada was a Confederation up to 1982, it is still a country made up of many Nations.

Turkey, if you will
is the countervailing power
to a Cypriot goal: Mankind's gift with
the Modern Age, to keep

an end to subjugation

Thus,
What is Bi-Communal: if it is not a division that tears in two
What is Bi Zonal: if two parts does not divide the island

...

i say,
enclaves are not a dirty word
And Cypriots can demonstrate this thinking first;
the way, if we have Grace

i say,
National Assemblies make
our cultural sustainance thrive, why
not develop the diversity of our respective societies
by spotting the island, geographically.

why not?
i choose this courage, because it allows for the population to grow over 10 million strong
and because this distinction as one People diverse in origin, can be emulated by others
Cypriots, being the island's dwellers
through Tolerance, ...can Turkey refuse?

i say..., again

please read my manifesto

[wyoming cowboy]

Canada has a distinct history, its been around for approximately 150 years with french and english speaking people. It never really had a written law or constitution its laws are based on english common law, it up until 1982 the queen of england was the head of state, with a governor representing the queen. Even today the queen is officially the head of state. Canada does not distinguish between english or french speakers, inother words there is no majority group or minority group. There is no comparison of Cyprus to Canada,and saying one can produce the same confederation in cyprus as there is in canada is stupid.

...Canada was a Confederation up to 1982, it is still a country made up of many Nations.

Turkey, if you will
is the countervailing power
to a Cypriot goal: Mankind's gift with
the Modern Age, to keep

an end to subjugation

Thus,
What is Bi-Communal: if it is not a division that tears in two
What is Bi Zonal: if two parts does not divide the island

...

i say,
enclaves are not a dirty word
And Cypriots can demonstrate this thinking first;
the way, if we have Grace

i say,
National Assemblies make
our cultural sustainance thrive, why
not develop the diversity of our respective societies
by spotting the island, geographically.

why not?
i choose this courage, because it allows for the population to grow over 10 million strong
and because this distinction as one People diverse in origin, can be emulated by others
Cypriots, being the island's dwellers
through Tolerance, ...can Turkey refuse?

i say..., again

please read my manifesto

[Nikitas]

Would a 2 state solution suit Turkey?

Hell NO!

Which is why this particular outcome is a major weapon in the GC arsenal!

Just imagine that nothing comes of these talks etc and we have had it. RoC officially lets go the TCs by ceding them a reasonable amount of territory and simultaneously recognises their state. This is not the same as the world community recognising them, it much MORE. It is instant recognition de jure and de facto and indisputable.

ANd then what? What will be the immediate consequences in the TRNC? The TCs will want to assert themselves in their own country. THe Turks will want to keep the TCs under their thumb. There will be tension, perhaps even conflict with an unknown resolution. Whatever the outcome no one will be able to touch the GCs nor criticise them, they will have shown magnanimity beyond all expectations.

If the TCs think they will make life harder for the GCs insisting an exerting pressure on the territorially diminished but now fully independent RoC by threatening political union with Turkey the GCs have yet one more political weapon, full and official Union of the RoC with Greece and permanent exclusion of both TRNC and Turkey from the EU.

Union with Greece means instant NATO membership, and EU status of an old and tried member.

All of the above is hypothetical but shows where a two state solution can lead and why it would not be acceptable to Turkey. It also shows why TUrkey knows how far to stretch the situation.

So the push is for a solution with will keep Cyprus formally independent by bound and limited in the exercise of that independence. As long as the TCs are willing to accept the status of a subject people of Turkey and will not claim their independence that is how it is going to be.