CopperLine wrote:Cem,
You might be right. Do current EU states want Turkey as a member ? Is it better for them to have Turkey as a special non-member state ? Broadly is it better to have Turkey inside the tent pissing out or outside the tent pissing in ? Fair questions. But whatever the answers may be there's a separate question which has a number of ambiguous answers. Does Turkey - that is the governing elites or ruling class - even want to join the EU ? Some do, some don't. There's an internal battle going on, as you know, and to that extent it is not clear and fixed how Cyprus features as a bargaining chip to be paid at some time or other by those who want to join the Union; or a 'national asset' never to be given up by those who have no wish to join the Union.
I think it mistaken for RoCypriots (and others) to assume that they themselves have a bargaining chip - 'Turkey, settle the Cyprus question or you don't get in the EU' - to be used at the most effective moment. That bargaining chip may be nothing more, to use current terminology, than a 'toxic asset'.
No problem with that, I quite agree with you. You are looking at the Turkish side while I am looking at the EU side.
Obviously, the capability and power of RoC is quite asymmetrical. That is, RoC can block Turkey's entry in the event of a discord with her allright. However, she doesn't have enough power by itself to promote Turkey's accession either, even if Turkey goes along her way and makes things easy for her.
I think, there has been serious divergences between RoC and other member states such as Germany and France. regarding the timing and synchronization of policies vis-a-vis Turkey. France in particular, has taken at the outset such a hostile attitude towards Turkey on issues such as Armenian genocide to the extent of screwing up the " carrot and stick policy" devised by Greece and RoC to be used in CyProb issue.