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Paphitis,

Can you give us your take on the Air France Flt. 447 crash please.!

Thanks.

Erm ... He is otherwise engaged with GR! and YFred ....

... That's the problem you see ... those pilots are so easily distracted!

Specially when GR and YFred shows up on his windshield.!

If people like Paphitis are flying planes it’s no wonder they’re falling out the skies…

[Kikapu]

Paphitis,

Can you give us your take on the Air France Flt. 447 crash please.!

Thanks.

All modern airliners are equipped with Weather Radar which indicate areas of thunderstorm activity and severe turbulence. These areas will appear on the radar as blotches of red, with less severe patches of cloud appearing as blue, green and yellow. Pilots will endeavor to avoid the red areas by diverting around the thunderstorm cells. Cumulonimbus Clouds, found within thunderstorms, are particularly dangerous. The severity of the turbulence found within these clouds can cause structural damage to the aircraft. Clear Icing (sheets of ice) will also form on the aircraft's fuselage and control surfaces which alter the aerodynamics of the aircraft and its flight characteristics. The wind shear, updrafts and downdrafts can be so severe it could result in the aircraft gaining and losing as much as 5,000FT. Microburst (downdraft) activity beneath the clouds anvil, but usually encountered when flying underneath Cumulonimbus clouds can be so strong it could push the aircraft into the ocean.

There were thunderstorms reported in the area immediately prior to the unfortunate accident. There were embedded Cumulonimbus Clouds up to a height of 53,000FT, which is fairly unusual as most Cumulonimbus cells anvil out at around 35,000FT.

It will be interesting to analyze the flight crew's decision process since they chose to press on or not divert. In order for this to happen, the Cockpit Voice Recorder must be retrieved. This does not mean that I consider the flight crew to be at fault, because I fully understand that getting caught within severe weather conditions is something all pilots experience. Fortunately, most live to tell the tale.

Furthermore, lightning strike is a most unsatisfactory explanation for the cause of this accident. Most aircraft are struck by lightning at least one time every year. Most aircraft are an aluminum hull (some other aircraft have composite hulls such as the Airbus A330) and this forms an excellent Faraday's Tube when hit by lightning. However, all VHF, UHF and HF antennas are attached along the aircraft's fuselage, and the electricity will travel down these antenna and through all VHF, UHF and HF radio systems thus completely frying out the radios circuitry. This will result in communications failure, but is still not an aircraft threatening event.

As stated above, thunderstorm activity and Cumulonimbus Cloud can place the aircraft within grave danger. Being struck by lightning does not. An ACARS (telemetry) transmission was received by Air France Maintenance Control informing them of some electrical malfunctions.

So what is known about AF447?



Attached above is the ACARS automated transmissions.

From the ACARS transmission (telemetry message) we know that the following systems had failed:

34-22-25 - INDICATOR - ISIS (INTEGRATED STANDBY INSTRUMENT SYSTEM)
34-43-00 - TRAFFIC AND TERRAIN COLLISION AVOIDANCE SYSTEM
34-12-00 - AIR DATA/INERTIAL REFERENCE SYSTEM (ADIRS) ((ADIRU & CDU))
34-10-00 - AIR DATA/INERTIAL REFERENCE SYSTEM (ADIRS)
27-90-00 - ELECTRICAL FLIGHT CONTROL SYSTEM (EFCS)
22-83-34 - FMGEC (FLIGHT MANAGEMENT, GUIDANCE AND ENVELOPE COMPUTER)
22-62-00 - FLIGHT ENVELOPE COMPUTATION
22-30-00 – AUTOTHRUST
27-23-00 - RUDDER AND PEDAL TRAVEL LIMITING ACTUATION
27-93-00 - FLIGHT CONTROL PRIMARY COMPUTER (FCPC)
34-11-15 - PROBE – PITOT
27-93-34 - FCPC (FLIGHT CONTROL PRIMARY COMPUTER)
21-31-00 - PRESSURE CONTROL AND MONITORING
27-91-00 - OPERATIONAL CONFIGURATION (F/Ctl Altn law)

So What Might of Happened?

AF447 knew there were severe thunderstorms along its route. They also knew there was a gap between these Cumulonimbus (CB) Cells and probably decided to press on. They would have been relying on their Weather Radar to divert around the CB cells. As is so often the case, the developing CB formations could have closed in from behind, thus encircling AF447. Because AF447 was encircled with CB formations thus committing itself with proceeding to Paris and with no other choice but to fly through CB thunderstorms. Once the aircraft penetrated CB cells, they would have encountered severe turbulence and wind shear. The moist atmosphere would result in Clear Ice build up along the control surfaces. Pitot Tubes are heated with Anti Ice Bleed Air from the engines, but they too iced over(?) causing ADR discrepancy. Auto pilot and auto throttle shut down. According to ACARS, there was a pressure control malfunction suggesting the possibility of rapid decompression instinctively forcing the pilots to initiate an emergency descent. They need to be below 13,000 feet when depressurised without oxygen. This would mean that the aircraft is now well within the most violent heart of the storm, where microburst is the most horendous. Severe CB turbulence could also have resulted in structural malfunction or loss of control. At some point the aircraft was struck by lightning, but this did not cause the aircraft to crash.

Paphitis,

Thank you once again for your expert opinion on Flight AF 447.

It could well have happened as you have written above and we will not now the facts until all the information needed to make that determination if and when the Flight Recorder (FDR) and the Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR) are found.

From all the very early news reports on this crash, the weather was the main suspect, but in what they wrote, it was not very credible for me to accept it as facts, since their explanation was very elementary to say the least. Take a look at these reports.

The cause of the crash will not be known until the black boxes are recovered — which could take days or weeks. But weather and aviation experts are focusing on the possibility of a collision with a brutal storm that sent winds of 100 mph (160 km/h) straight into the airliner's path.

"The airplane was flying at 500 mph (800 km/h) northeast and the air is coming at them at 100 mph," said AccuWeather.com senior meteorologist Henry Margusity. "That probably started the process that ended up in some catastrophic failure of the airplane."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090603/ap_ ... l_plane_78

This is what I thought of at the time I read the above;

"Reading the above section from a news article on Air France Flt 447 that crashed into the Atlantic last Sunday, more and more I'm beginning to get the feeling that the media and Air France is giving us a "snow job" in trying to keep us in the dark as to what may have happened, because the only scenario they are focusing on more than anything else, is the weather, which so far for me, it's the least cause of the loss of Flt 447."

I was of course referring to lightning strikes on the aircraft and not on severe Turbulence that may have occurred as a result from bad weather. We have since the above report been getting more attention on the PITOT Tube as being the problem, which once again, leaves me with few more questions unanswered. Here are few puzzling questions that is bothering me.

Three hours before Flt 447 took to the skies, another Air France took off from the same airport Paris bound and landed safely. Granted 3 hours is a long time and the weather could have changed in the meantime, but how about all the other aircraft using the airspace around where Flt 447 disappeared. Why have we not heard of any problems with these flights if the weather was so bad. I'm sure the South Atlantic route from South America to Europe is not as busy as the case is with the North American route to Europe, but surely there had to have been other pilots who had to had some involvement with the weather in this area, and yet, I have not heard anything. So the conclusion is, everyone made it OK through the proclaimed bad weather, except for Flt 447. This is very hard for me to accept if no other pilots had encountered such bad weather in this area. But as you have very clearly stated, the onboard weather radar would have been used to fly around the storm if it was that bad, so did they or did they not do this, and if so, what happened. Perhaps if they did turn back towards Brazil, now that path had also closed in, but we do not have that information on a 180° degree turn yet.

Lets talk about the Pitot tube problem. Yes there will be problems with the airspeed, altimeter and the vertical air speed indicators if the flow of air into it was restricted due to ice or other foreign objects. Lets just say that the pitot tube was iced up and the auto pilot reacted to it accordingly, increased speed or reduced speed depending on the exact problem. Surely experienced pilots would have noticed drastic change in the planes two engines RPM indicators as being either too high/low than normal RMS's during cruising at 35,000 ft.

What about the GPS on board.? Not only they would give the pilot the aircrafts location, but also the ground speed of the aircraft. All the years I've flown on commercial airliners which had GPS screens for the passengers, which I keep on most of the time during the flight by the way, the most head/tail winds I've seen has been around 120-130 mph, therefore, if the GPS is showing 800 mph, I would be very surprised if the pilots accepted that being that they had an 300 mph tailwind, or GPS showing 200 mph, meaning that they had a headwind at 300 mph, since from experience and the speed they had before the crash, that they were flying at 500 mph as "true speed". I'm using the above numbers, because as reported lately, that if the pitot tube was faulty, then it would have caused the auto-pilot to increase/decrease speed depending what the problem was. I just can't accept, that experienced pilots did not see and did not compute in what the airspeed indicator was reading, what the engines rpm indicators were reading, and what the GPS indicators was reading, and yet, no action was taken by the pilots. I find this hard to believe.

No radio transmission by the pilots for any emergency calls. Why not.? Surely they would have had time to transmit something, even to warn other pilots in the area. At least send a out a call giving the conditions if it's really that bad with the weather. There were 3 pilots aboard, but it is possible, one may have been out of the cockpit taking a short sleep in one of the crew berths, perhaps the captain.? No explanation which gives me concerns.

The automated transmission that you posted above (ACARS) stated that there was a problem with the electrical power system and loss of cabin pressure. This transmission had to have been sent before the plane hit the water, and yet, there was no transmission of anything by the pilots. Why not.?

OK, I've asked a lot of questions and it is very difficult to get into the head of the pilots to understand what they were doing/not doing, but the questions on the ACARS transmissions without the pilots transmitting anything leads me to believe that;

a) the aircraft broke up in the air by going too fast because the auto pilot just added full power if the airspeed indicators were giving false results to the auto pilot due to the pitot tube problems

b) that the vertical stabilizer (tail) fell of the aircraft due to heavy turbulence which would have doomed the aircraft immediately. In 2001 American Airlines Flt 587, A300 lost it's vertical stabilizer right after take off causing the plane to crash killing all aboard and few on the ground, because the aircraft previously had some lateral forces applied on it's tail section in bad weather which had weakened the connecting point of the tail to the rest of the fuselage. Same may have happened here.??

c) a bomb could have been the reason why everything happened so quickly that the pilots did not have a chance to make any transmission and the loss of electrical power and cabin pressure. It is very convenient that this aircraft went down soon after it left all radar covered areas. A bomb with a timer to go off at certain time would make the aircraft disappear, which would take much longer to find any evidence if there is no radar coverage. This reminds me of the Pan Am Flt 103, B-747 that was bombed over Lockerbie, Scotland, killing all aboard plus some on the ground. The reason why Flt 103 exploded over land and not over the sea as it was planned, was because Flt 103 was delayed for take off by 2 hours at Heathrow, which would have been somewhere between Iceland and Greenland if it had been on time, which all evidence would have been lost at see and the Libyan agents would not have been caught as a result. So bombing of Flt 447 is a very possibility. I would like to know whether the recovered bodies were all naked or they had clothes on them. If they are found to be naked, it would indicate if the plane broke up in the air and people feel to their deaths (they would have been already dead in few seconds if the plane broke up at 35,000 ft ) at high speed causing their clothes to be ripped off them. I would also like to know who were on board, like any important people.

So, here you have it Paphitis, but I have one other thing to state here and that is;

"I want to comment on the "Black Boxes" for a moment. I do not understand, why the general aviation administration has not built a system where all flight and voice recordings are transmitted by radio frequency to a land based computer through all our GPS and communication satellites that are out there in space at the same time such information is also fed into the aircrafts own "black boxes". This way, we do not have to always worry about whether we can find the "black boxes" or not from every time a plane crashes, to get the information to find out what the cause was, because all the information will be available on a computer on land somewhere. I have been questioning this idea in my head for many years now, and yet, it has not happened. Why not.?"

[Paphitis]

Paphitis,

Thank you once again for your expert opinion on Flight AF 447.

It could well have happened as you have written above and we will not now the facts until all the information needed to make that determination if and when the Flight Recorder (FDR) and the Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR) are found.

You are quite correct. However, there is a lot of industry speculation which you won't read about in the media.

From all the very early news reports on this crash, the weather was the main suspect, but in what they wrote, it was not very credible for me to accept it as facts, since their explanation was very elementary to say the least. Take a look at these reports.

The severe weather conditions encountered by AF447 was a major contributor for this accident. There is some speculation of structural failure of Yaw Dampers, and the Hydraulic Actuators of the Horizontal Stabiliser and Rudder, because the aircraft encountered severe turbulence and exceeded its wing loading limit of 1.5g. These are made from carbon-fibre composite materials.

The cause of the crash will not be known until the black boxes are recovered — which could take days or weeks. But weather and aviation experts are focusing on the possibility of a collision with a brutal storm that sent winds of 100 mph (160 km/h) straight into the airliner's path.

"The airplane was flying at 500 mph (800 km/h) northeast and the air is coming at them at 100 mph," said AccuWeather.com senior meteorologist Henry Margusity. "That probably started the process that ended up in some catastrophic failure of the airplane."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090603/ap_ ... l_plane_78 [/quote]

The above news article is the most ridiculous thing I have read.

Winds are not a factor at all. At altitudes greater than 25,000 feet, aircraft encounter Jet streams or strong winds, up to 150kts. I have seen jet streams as strong as 180 knots. These winds cause absolutely no stress on the airframe, and quite often, we will climb into these jet streams, if it gives us a good tailwind. This saves flight time and fuel. If we are encountering a Jet stream head on, we will descend to a lower level, where winds are not so high, so that we don't get the full brunt of the headwind. So Jet stream winds are really good if it translates to a Tailwind, but are bad if they translate to a Headwind.

This is what I thought of at the time I read the above;

"Reading the above section from a news article on Air France Flt 447 that crashed into the Atlantic last Sunday, more and more I'm beginning to get the feeling that the media and Air France is giving us a "snow job" in trying to keep us in the dark as to what may have happened, because the only scenario they are focusing on more than anything else, is the weather, which so far for me, it's the least cause of the loss of Flt 447."

The media is focusing on the weather because so far this is the only verifiable element as to the cause of this accident.

Do not concern yourself with Air France too much. There is speculation that the Airbus A330/A340/A380 have some critical design faults which Airbus are desperately trying to cover up and issue an Air Directive to operators about some urgent maintenance and modifications.

The Airbus A330/A340/A380 are constructed from cast aluminium and carbon fibre composites (plastic). The Horizontal Stabiliser, Yaw Dampers, Rudder, Ailerons, and hydraulic Actuator Pins are carbon-fibre plastic. This material, after many cycles is known to become very brittle and can endure much less stress than the aluminium designs.

The speculation within the industry is that AF447 suffered catastrophic structural failure when encountering severe turbulence and wing loading g-force. In other words, the Horizontal Stabiliser just broke away. The aircraft then had absolutely no pitch control and would have plunged into the ocean.

So Airbus Industries would be a little concerned about this right now. Because if an aviation expert is brave enough to tell the media that AF in all likelihood went down due to a design fault in the Actuator Pins of the Horizontal Stabiliser and that these Pins failed because they are made from carbon-fibre which becomes brittle and shatters under fatigue, then Airbus will go bust and not only. The whole Airbus A330/A340/A380 fleet will be grounded. Airlines that have all Airbus fleets like Cyprus Airways will also go under overnight. All airlines that have ordered the A330/A340/A380 will sue Airbus. It will be the end of all carbon-fibre aircraft. The Airbus A350 won't even get of the ground and neither will the B787 Dream-liner. Airbus could very well be destroyed.

Unfortunately, not many people would be willing to speak up about this right now, because there is no proof or solid evidence to back this up. Airbus would move very quickly and deny any reports that do come out and probably sue anyone who makes any defaming statements as to the integrity of carbon-fibre parts and how they might have contributed to this accident. This still does not prevent all the industry gossip, speculation and rumours from pilots, and engineers.

The only way we will ever find out is if the Cockpit Voice and Data Recorders are salvaged.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg2 ... uture.html

I was of course referring to lightning strikes on the aircraft and not on severe Turbulence that may have occurred as a result from bad weather. We have since the above report been getting more attention on the PITOT Tube as being the problem, which once again, leaves me with few more questions unanswered. Here are few puzzling questions that is bothering me.

The Pitot Tubes iced over resulting in ADR discrepancy. Please note that ADR discrepancy is listed as one of the faults on the AF447 ACARS transmission attached above. This also resulted in Traffic and Terrain Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) failure, as TCAS relies on speed data from the 3 ADRs. The aircraft's central nervous system also shut down. As you can see from the ACARS report, all the systems referred to in the above link just shut down including the auto pilot and auto throttle.

http://aviationtroubleshooting.blogspot ... arthe.html

Once again here is a short list from the above attached ACARS readout.

34-22-25 - INDICATOR - ISIS (INTEGRATED STANDBY INSTRUMENT SYSTEM)
34-43-00 - TRAFFIC AND TERRAIN COLLISION AVOIDANCE SYSTEM
34-12-00 - AIR DATA/INERTIAL REFERENCE SYSTEM (ADIRS) ((ADIRU & CDU))
34-10-00 - AIR DATA/INERTIAL REFERENCE SYSTEM (ADIRS)
27-90-00 - ELECTRICAL FLIGHT CONTROL SYSTEM (EFCS)
22-83-34 - FMGEC (FLIGHT MANAGEMENT, GUIDANCE AND ENVELOPE COMPUTER)
22-62-00 - FLIGHT ENVELOPE COMPUTATION
22-30-00 – AUTOTHRUST
27-23-00 - RUDDER AND PEDAL TRAVEL LIMITING ACTUATION
27-93-00 - FLIGHT CONTROL PRIMARY COMPUTER (FCPC)
34-11-15 - PROBE – PITOT
27-93-34 - FCPC (FLIGHT CONTROL PRIMARY COMPUTER)
21-31-00 - PRESSURE CONTROL AND MONITORING
27-91-00 - OPERATIONAL CONFIGURATION (F/Ctl Altn law)

Three hours before Flt 447 took to the skies, another Air France took off from the same airport Paris bound and landed safely. Granted 3 hours is a long time and the weather could have changed in the meantime, but how about all the other aircraft using the airspace around where Flt 447 disappeared. Why have we not heard of any problems with these flights if the weather was so bad. I'm sure the South Atlantic route from South America to Europe is not as busy as the case is with the North American route to Europe, but surely there had to have been other pilots who had to had some involvement with the weather in this area, and yet, I have not heard anything. So the conclusion is, everyone made it OK through the proclaimed bad weather, except for Flt 447. This is very hard for me to accept if no other pilots had encountered such bad weather in this area. But as you have very clearly stated, the onboard weather radar would have been used to fly around the storm if it was that bad, so did they or did they not do this, and if so, what happened. Perhaps if they did turn back towards Brazil, now that path had also closed in, but we do not have that information on a 180° degree turn yet.

There was a SIGMET Weather Report along AF447's route. I have this SIGMET report at home and I will post it for you next week. This SIGMET report, in all likelihood was reported by another preceding aircraft.

What this SIGMET report indicated was severe CB formations to the left and to the right of AF447's track. So the pilots probably decided to continue to Paris thinking that they would be able to negotiate these severe storms just like other aircraft did beforehand. A very reasonable decision under the circumstances. However, tropical CB cells have 3 stages. The Developing Stage, Mature Stage and the Dissipating Stage. The most dangerous is the Mature stage.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thunderstorm

The life cycle of a tropical storm is very small. There life cycle can be as short as 1-4 hours before they start dissipating but are extremely fierce in the Mature stage.

So for AF447, it was a case of being in the wrong place at the wrong time. If they arrived in the area as little as 3 hours earlier or later, they might have been OK. Even structural failure might not have occurred if AF447 did not encounter these freak weather conditions.

Lets talk about the Pitot tube problem. Yes there will be problems with the airspeed, altimeter and the vertical air speed indicators if the flow of air into it was restricted due to ice or other foreign objects. Lets just say that the pitot tube was iced up and the auto pilot reacted to it accordingly, increased speed or reduced speed depending on the exact problem. Surely experienced pilots would have noticed drastic change in the planes two engines RPM indicators as being either too high/low than normal RMS's during cruising at 35,000 ft.

The auto throttle had failed due to Air Data Reference (ADR) discrepancy. If anything, the autopilot would have reduced thrust, in order to achieve Turbulence Penetration Speed. But if the ADR's are giving erratic readings, then the auto throttle doesn't know what to do and shuts itself down. ADR warning flags will appear as well as the Autopilot shutdown (AP OFF). TCAS will also fail as a result.

At this point, there is no method of ascertaining the aircraft's airspeed accurately, resulting in either possible overspeed or stall.

What about the GPS on board.? Not only they would give the pilot the aircrafts location, but also the ground speed of the aircraft. All the years I've flown on commercial airliners which had GPS screens for the passengers, which I keep on most of the time during the flight by the way, the most head/tail winds I've seen has been around 120-130 mph, therefore, if the GPS is showing 800 mph, I would be very surprised if the pilots accepted that being that they had an 300 mph tailwind, or GPS showing 200 mph, meaning that they had a headwind at 300 mph, since from experience and the speed they had before the crash, that they were flying at 500 mph as "true speed". I'm using the above numbers, because as reported lately, that if the pitot tube was faulty, then it would have caused the auto-pilot to increase/decrease speed depending what the problem was. I just can't accept, that experienced pilots did not see and did not compute in what the airspeed indicator was reading, what the engines rpm indicators were reading, and what the GPS indicators was reading, and yet, no action was taken by the pilots. I find this hard to believe.

You are also assuming that the GPS was functioning. GPS has an external antenna mounted on the fuselage, and if AF447 was struck by lighting, then it would have been fried just like all other VHF/UHF and HF comms.

Furthermore, all aircraft have a Turbulence Penetration Speed when encountering turbulence. This is to limit any undue stress on the fuselage and control surfaces. I do not know what the Turbulence Penetration Speed for the A330 is, but it could be as low as 350knots True Air Speed (TAS). In thunderstorms, it is feasible to expect wind gusts up to 180 knots, severe wind shear and microburst.

The GPS, if operational, will only give Ground Speed (GS) or the speed travelled over the ground. As you know this is different to the TAS as the tailwind component is added or the headwind component is subtracted. If the winds were as high as 180 knots, then the GS could either be very high or very low, dependant on whether it is a tailwind or headwind.

In this scenario, it is impossible for the pilots to even guess their TAS.

However, I do know that AF447's final reported speed was 447 knots. This reading may also be unreliable due to ADR discrepancy.

No radio transmission by the pilots for any emergency calls. Why not.? Surely they would have had time to transmit something, even to warn other pilots in the area. At least send a out a call giving the conditions if it's really that bad with the weather. There were 3 pilots aboard, but it is possible, one may have been out of the cockpit taking a short sleep in one of the crew berths, perhaps the captain.? No explanation which gives me concerns.

All pilots would have transmitted their position, and the weather conditions encountered when ops normal. If ops are not normal, all pilots will give a MAYDAY call on emergency frequency 121.50 Mhz and Area Control probably on HF as the area is very remote and far away from control centres.

The fact that AF447 made no calls whatsoever, suggests that the aircraft was struck by lightning and lost ALL comms.

The automated transmission that you posted above (ACARS) stated that there was a problem with the electrical power system and loss of cabin pressure. This transmission had to have been sent before the plane hit the water, and yet, there was no transmission of anything by the pilots. Why not.?

Once again suggesting that AF447 had no comms. Lightning strike will do this.

OK, I've asked a lot of questions and it is very difficult to get into the head of the pilots to understand what they were doing/not doing, but the questions on the ACARS transmissions without the pilots transmitting anything leads me to believe that;

a) the aircraft broke up in the air by going too fast because the auto pilot just added full power if the airspeed indicators were giving false results to the auto pilot due to the pitot tube problems

The auto throttle would have been reducing power to achieve turbulence Penetration Speed. It may have tried to increase power only if the airspeed indication was far too low and risking a stall. But with ADR discrepancy it just shut down.

b) that the vertical stabilizer (tail) fell of the aircraft due to heavy turbulence which would have doomed the aircraft immediately. In 2001 American Airlines Flt 587, A300 lost it's vertical stabilizer right after take off causing the plane to crash killing all aboard and few on the ground, because the aircraft previously had some lateral forces applied on it's tail section in bad weather which had weakened the connecting point of the tail to the rest of the fuselage. Same may have happened here.??

The speculation is that the Horizontal Stabiliser might have fallen off.

This is why I was referring to Structural Failure in my initial post.

There is a lot of talk about carbon-fibre parts and this has the potential to absolutely destroy Airbus, and the A330/A340/A350/A380. The B787 dreamliner will not be immune to this either. So Airbus might be hoping that the Cockpit Voice and Data Recorders are never found.

If this turns out to be true, then the ramifications will turn the aviation industry inside out.

c) a bomb could have been the reason why everything happened so quickly that the pilots did not have a chance to make any transmission and the loss of electrical power and cabin pressure. It is very convenient that this aircraft went down soon after it left all radar covered areas. A bomb with a timer to go off at certain time would make the aircraft disappear, which would take much longer to find any evidence if there is no radar coverage. This reminds me of the Pan Am Flt 103, B-747 that was bombed over Lockerbie, Scotland, killing all aboard plus some on the ground. The reason why Flt 103 exploded over land and not over the sea as it was planned, was because Flt 103 was delayed for take off by 2 hours at Heathrow, which would have been somewhere between Iceland and Greenland if it had been on time, which all evidence would have been lost at see and the Libyan agents would not have been caught as a result. So bombing of Flt 447 is a very possibility. I would like to know whether the recovered bodies were all naked or they had clothes on them. If they are found to be naked, it would indicate if the plane broke up in the air and people feel to their deaths (they would have been already dead in few seconds if the plane broke up at 35,000 ft ) at high speed causing their clothes to be ripped off them. I would also like to know who were on board, like any important people.

This was ruled out because of all the data received from ACARS indicating several electrical system failures. If there was a bomb, there would be no ACARS transmission as AF447 would have been an instant fireball. Add to this the prevailing severe weather conditions, and the potential for structural failure. Terrorism is extremely unlikely.

So, here you have it Paphitis, but I have one other thing to state here and that is;

"I want to comment on the "Black Boxes" for a moment. I do not understand, why the general aviation administration has not built a system where all flight and voice recordings are transmitted by radio frequency to a land based computer through all our GPS and communication satellites that are out there in space at the same time such information is also fed into the aircrafts own "black boxes". This way, we do not have to always worry about whether we can find the "black boxes" or not from every time a plane crashes, to get the information to find out what the cause was, because all the information will be available on a computer on land somewhere. I have been questioning this idea in my head for many years now, and yet, it has not happened. Why not.?"

Well, I can tell you that the above is possible. So why has it not happened?

Probably because of the "Affordable Safety" ideals that have penetrated the industry over the last 20 years. The costs and logistics of setting something like this up would be enormous and airlines would need to fork out for these costs. They will eventually pass on these costs to the flying public and perhaps that is a bit prohibitive.

But I do agree with your idea.

As always, I really enjoy your aviation posts and insight...

Keep posting more whenever possible..

[Kikapu]

Paphitis,

Thanks for your "report" on Flt 447................again.

Just couple of comments.

1. If the Pitot tube is partially blocked by ice which means less air is getting into the tube to give an accurate reading on the airspeed instruments, wouldn't the AP then increase power automatically in order to maintain the cruising speed at the altitude it was set to fly in.?

2. So far, the only major part of Flt 447 that has been found is the Vertical Stabilizer in what appears to be in ONE piece, which may have fallen off the aircraft during the turbulent weather. Once the VS is gone, the aircraft would have gone into a rapid Yawing action which would have caused the engines of the A330 to be ripped off the wings by the yawing forces on them in no time, as the case was with the American Airlines Flt 587. That flight lasted less than 2 minutes in total, but as soon as it lost the VS, both engines got ripped off the wings almost immediately. It may be, that Flt 447 went straight down once the VS and the engines fell of the plane. I'm not so certain that the pilots would have been able to put the aircraft into a "glide slope" to try and make an emergency water landing without the VS or the Horizontal stabilizers, as you believe that may have got ripped off and not the VS. Either way, Flt 447 was doomed if any part of the tail section broke off in a major way.

I'm constantly learning more regarding general aviation, thanks to your inputs on this topic!.

[Paphitis]

Paphitis,

Thanks for your "report" on Flt 447................again.

Just couple of comments.

1. If the Pitot tube is partially blocked by ice which means less air is getting into the tube to give an accurate reading on the airspeed instruments, wouldn't the AP then increase power automatically in order to maintain the cruising speed at the altitude it was set to fly in.?

The Auto Throttle (AT) would shut down.

All 3 Pitot Tubes would have been giving erroneous Indicated Air Speed (IAS) readings which means that the Auto Throttle would have shut itself down and with the AT Flag showing on the Electronic Horizontal Situation Indicator and the annunciator panel.

There is also talk about the Total Air Temperature (TAT) probe and the Static Air Probe also icing up. This means the TAT probe would give inaccurate readings of the Outside Air Temperature (OAT) and the Static Air Probe would not be able to measure Air Pressure thus giving erroneous Altitude readings with reference to 1013hPA (QFE - Pressure Altitude).

Kikapu wrote:

2. So far, the only major part of Flt 447 that has been found is the Vertical Stabilizer in what appears to be in ONE piece, which may have fallen off the aircraft during the turbulent weather. Once the VS is gone, the aircraft would have gone into a rapid Yawing action which would have caused the engines of the A330 to be ripped off the wings by the yawing forces on them in no time, as the case was with the American Airlines Flt 587.

If the Vertical Stabiliser fell off, the aircraft would have slowly entered a Yaw in which the pilots would not have been able to counter other than apply opposite aileron. The aircraft would then most probably enter an incipient roll until the Angle of Bank is 90 degrees. This will result in no lift and the aircraft will then pitch down into a nosedive and roll until upside down.

That flight lasted less than 2 minutes in total, but as soon as it lost the VS, both engines got ripped off the wings almost immediately. It may be, that Flt 447 went straight down once the VS and the engines fell of the plane.

I don't think the engines would have been ripped off due to the VS falling off. The 2 are completely unrelated.

However, it is possible that the engines could have fallen off due to severe turbulence causing structural damage. This would have appeared on the ACARS transmission as N1 and RPM would indicate zero on the Engine Indicating and Crew Alerting System (EICAS).

I'm not so certain that the pilots would have been able to put the aircraft into a "glide slope" to try and make an emergency water landing without the VS or the Horizontal stabilizers, as you believe that may have got ripped off and not the VS. Either way, Flt 447 was doomed if any part of the tail section broke off in a major way.

There would have been absolutely nothing they could do. The aircraft would have been uncontrollable and they would have speared into the ocean.

The rumours are that both the HS and VS separated from the aircraft and there is a lot of hype about the carbon-fibre composite parts and hydraulic actuators which hole the VS and HS into place. Airbus Industries would be very keen to hush all this talk.

I'm constantly learning more regarding general aviation, thanks to your inputs on this topic!.

No problem Kiks. I am also finding this invaluable because you are forcing me to revise my knowledge by reading things I covered as part of my ATPL theory over 14 years ago...

I have more material to post for you later - namely the SIGMET reports for AF447. From these reports, we can understand why the pilots did not decide to return back to RIO.

[kafenes]

Just recieved these in my email.

The two photos attached were apparently taken by one of the passengers in the aircraft, just after the collision and before the aircraft crashed. The photos were retrieved from the camera's memory stick. You will never get to see photos like this. In the first photo, there is a gaping hole in the fuselage through which you can see the tailplane and vertical fin of the aircraft. In the second photo, one of the passengers is being sucked out of the gaping hole.

These photos were found in a digital Casio Z750, amidst the remains in Serra do Cachimbo. Although the camera was destroyed, the Memory Stick was recovered. Investigating the serial number of the camera, the owner was identified as Paulo G. Muller, an actor of a theatre for children known in the outskirts of Porto Alegre . It can be imagined that he was standing during the turbulence, he managed to take these photos, just seconds after the tail loss the aircraft plunged. So the camera was found near the cockpit. The structural stress probably ripped the engines away, diminishing the falling speed, protecting the electronic equipment but not unfortunately the victims. Paulo Muller leaves behind two daughters, Bruna and Beatriz.

[alexISS]

It's a hoax
http://hubpages.com/hub/Rare-Photos-Aft ... -Air-Frane

[cyprusgrump]

It's a hoax
http://hubpages.com/hub/Rare-Photos-Aft ... -Air-Frane

Quite right alexISS.

[SSBubbles]

It's a hoax
http://hubpages.com/hub/Rare-Photos-Aft ... -Air-Frane

That is just sick! Why do people do that?

[Kikapu]

I'm constantly learning more regarding general aviation, thanks to your inputs on this topic!.

No problem Kiks. I am also finding this invaluable because you are forcing me to revise my knowledge by reading things I covered as part of my ATPL theory over 14 years ago...

Good, then you can use me as your "guinea pig" in training yourself in becoming the Chief Test Pilot in the future.!

You can buy me dinner after you get that job, or better still, let me ride RIGHT seat.!


OK, here is a report which I read few days ago which very much goes into few points I raised several days ago on one of my posts, relating to the conditions of the bodies recovered, possible break-up in the air, and possible bomb blast that may have brought down the AF Flt 447.

Jun 17, 2009 11:00 am US/Mountain
Autopsies Suggest Air France Jet Broke Up In Sky

SAO PAULO (AP) ―

Autopsies revealed fractures in the legs, hips and arms of Air France disaster victims, a Brazilian official said Wednesday. Experts said those injuries — and the large pieces of wreckage pulled from the Atlantic — strongly suggest the plane broke up in the air.

There have been no visible signs of burning or charring on bodies or wreckage, though that doesn't rule out an explosion somewhere outside the passenger cabin, these crash experts told The Associated Press.

A spokesman for Brazilian medical examiners told the AP that the fractures were found in autopsies on an undisclosed number of the 50 bodies recovered so far. The official spoke on condition he not be named due to department rules.

"Typically, if you see intact bodies and multiple fractures — arm, leg, hip fractures — it's a good indicator of a midflight break up," said Frank Ciacco, a former forensic expert at the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board. "Especially if you're seeing large pieces of aircraft as well."

The pattern of fractures was first reported Wednesday by Brazil's O Estado de S. Paulo newspaper, which cited unamed investigators. The paper also reported that some victims were found with little or no clothing, and had no signs of burns.

That lack of clothing could be significant, said Jack Casey, an aviation safety consultant in Washington, D.C., who is a former accident investigator. "In an in-air break up like we are supposing here, the clothes are just torn away."

Casey also said multiple fractures are consistent with a midair breakup of the plane, which was cruising at about 34,500 feet (10,500 meters) when it went down.

"Getting ejected into that kind of windstream is like hitting a brick wall — even if they stay in their seats, it is a crushing effect," Casey said. "Most of them were long dead before they hit the water would be my guess."

When a jet crashes into water mostly intact — such as the Egypt Air plane that hit the Atlantic Ocean after taking off from New York in 1999 — debris and bodies are generally broken into small pieces, Ciacco said. "When you've had impact in the water, there is a lot more fragmentation of the bodies. They hit the water with a higher force."

Lack of burn evidence would not necessarily rule out an explosion, said John Goglia, a former member of the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board.

If something caused the lower fuselage to burn or explode, "passengers would not be exposed to any blast damage" and the plane would still disintegrate in flight," Goglia said. "These are scenarios that cannot be ruled out."

In Paris, Paul-Louis Arslanian, head of the French air accident investigation agency BEA, said search teams had recovered more than 400 pieces of debris — reason for "a little more optimism," since it has helped narrow the search for the black boxes in a vast area of the mid-Atlantic.

"We are in a situation that is a bit more favorable than the first days," Arslanian told a news conference at BEA headquarters outside Paris. "We can say there is a little less uncertainty, so there is a little more optimism."

"(But) it is premature for the time being to say what happened," he added.

Searchers from Brazil, France, the United States and other countries are methodically scanning the surface and depths of the Atlantic for signs of the Airbus A330 that crashed May 31 after running into thunderstorms en route from Rio de Janeiro to Paris. All 228 people aboard were killed.

Still missing are the plane's flight data and voice recorders, thought to be deep under water.

French-chartered ships are trolling a search area with a radius of 50 miles (80 kilometers), pulling U.S. Navy underwater listening devices attached to 19,700 feet (6,000 meters) of cable. The black boxes send out an electronic tapping sound that can be heard up to 1.25 miles (2 kilometers) away, but these locator beacons will begin to fade after just two more weeks.

"It is one of the worst situations ever known in an accident investigation," Arslanian said.

Without the black boxes to help explain what went wrong, the investigation has focused on a flurry of automated messages sent by the plane minutes before it lost contact; one suggests external speed sensors had iced over, destabilizing the plane's control systems.

Arslanian said most of the messages appear to be "linked to this loss of validity of speed information." He said when the speed information became "incoherent" it affected other systems on the plane that relied on that speed data. But he stressed that not all the automated messages were related to the speed sensors.

The automated messages were not alarm calls and no distress call was picked up from the plane, he said.

Air France has replaced the sensors, called Pitot tubes, on all its A330 and A340 aircraft, under pressure from pilots who feared a link to the accident.

Arslanian said a French doctor from the BEA was not allowed to participate in autopsies done so far on some Flight 447 bodies by Brazilian authorities, and those autopsy results have not been released to the BEA. He said he was "not happy" with this situation.

However, he added that French judicial authorities, who are conducting a parallel criminal probe, were present at the autopsies.

Brazil's Federal Police and state medical authorities in Recife who are overseeing the autopsies said in a statement that two French investigators, a dental expert and a doctor, had been following the examinations as observers since June 10.

The French are leading the crash investigation, while the Brazilians are leading the rescue operation.

(© 2009 The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.)"

http://cbs4denver.com/national/flight.4 ... 48336.html

Some interesting observations.

"Autopsies revealed fractures in the legs, hips and arms of Air France disaster victims, a Brazilian official said Wednesday. Experts said those injuries — and the large pieces of wreckage pulled from the Atlantic — strongly suggest the plane broke up in the air."

"There have been no visible signs of burning or charring on bodies or wreckage, though that doesn't rule out an explosion somewhere outside the passenger cabin, these crash experts told The Associated Press."

"If something caused the lower fuselage to burn or explode, "passengers would not be exposed to any blast damage" and the plane would still disintegrate in flight," Goglia said. "These are scenarios that cannot be ruled out."

"The automated messages were not alarm calls and no distress call was picked up from the plane, he said."

"Arslanian said a French doctor from the BEA was not allowed to participate in autopsies done so far on some Flight 447 bodies by Brazilian authorities, and those autopsy results have not been released to the BEA. He said he was "not happy" with this situation."

"The French are leading the crash investigation, while the Brazilians are leading the rescue operation."


It had got me thinking why Brazil was taking the lead into the performing the autopsies as well as the rescue operation, which means basically, that they are gathering all the pieces of the aircraft and the remains of the passengers for examination and not France. Is it possible that Brazil wanted to "contain" all the information for a purpose I did not understand why at the time, until I read this piece couple of days ago, which helped me understand the reasons just a little bit better.

Thursday June 18, 2009

Rio de Janeiro picks up momentum in race for 2016 bid

LAUSANNE, Switzerland (AP) -- With 31/2 months to go, Rio de Janeiro has picked up significant momentum in the race for the 2016 Olympics.

The Brazilian city emerged with the most buzz among the four cities during presentations Wednesday to International Olympic Committee members and could become the leading contender going into the Oct. 2 vote in Copenhagen against Chicago, Madrid and Tokyo.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/m ... index.html

I don't know about you, Paphitis, but too much is being focused on the PITOT tubes as perhaps being the reason why AF Flt 447 crashed and not on terrorism, because if they were, it would very seriously damage Brazil's chances of winning the bid to host the 2016 Summer Olympics, if in fact it was a bomb that brought Flt 447 down. My gut feeling goes with the bomb theory, only because;

a) No transmission from the pilots as anything being wrong or unmanageable by the crew despite the weather conditions

b) Everything happened very sudden

c) A small bomb in the baggage holding area, lets say at the rear of the plane, would have been enough to damage the aircraft's structure to cause the break-up in the air at the high speed the aircraft was flying, hence the reason why those passengers who were found, appears to have been fallen out of the sky without clothes and multiple bone fractures, which would have happened upon hitting the water. I would be very interested to know where on the aircraft these found passengers were sitting.

d) Aircraft went down very conveniently once out of Radar coverage and in deep ocean waters.

Anyway, these are my thoughts at the moment on this air disaster.!