The following article is by YUSUF KANLI from HURRIYET:
Polls in northern Cyprus indicate the existence of a deep frustration with the ruling coalition government, particularly with the senior coalition partner, the Republican Turks’ Party, or CTP, of Prime Minister Ferdi Sabit Soyer. Reading the latest public-opinion polls, one may easily conclude that the Turkish Cypriot electorate is out to punish the CTP for failing to fulfill its 2003 election pledge to "[bring] an end to the international isolation of northern Cyprus even if a settlement cannot be reached" on the island.
The frustration in northern Cyprus is so deep, polls say, that if the 2004 referendum on the failed Annan peace plan Ğ which received an overwhelming 65 percent approval Ğ were to be repeated today, 53.8 percent of Turkish Cypriots would say "no," while only 27.9 percent would say "yes," with the rest undecided but leaning toward voting "no."
Despite our general distrust in opinion polls, we believe this result must be taken as a very strong wake-up call by the CTP as well as President Talat. This was not the first poll in recent times to indicate such a radical shift in the views of the Turkish Cypriot people. A poll conducted last June produced a similar result, demonstrating that the "yes" block in favor of a compromise, and even a bitter settlement on Cyprus had shifted since the April 2004 referendum, in favor of the "no" block.
Similarly, while a 2003 vote had been a cliffhanger, with 50 seats in Parliament equally distributed between the "yes" and "no" blocks, or between the CTP-led leftists and the conservatives led by the National Unity Party, or UBP, the latest polls indicate that the UBP will likely win some 46 percent of the votes on April 19 while the CTP’s votes will drop to around 25 percent. Even if the UBP might not form the next government alone, the total conservative seats in Parliament might not just be comfortably sufficient to form a nationalist coalition, but might be strong enough to change the Turkish Cypriot constitution without the need to compromise with the left.
Why the change?
Of course there were reasons for the change in the electoral pattern in northern Cyprus. In 2004, Turkish Cypriots voted very strongly in support of a settlement. In 2005, the winds of change and the demand for a compromise settlement were still so strong that "advocate of the national cause" Rauf R. Denktaş felt compelled to step down and not seek re-election. Thus, pro-settlement Talat became the Turkish Cypriot president.
What did Talat and Soyer pledge to the Turkish Cypriot people between 2003 and 2005? They told the Turkish Cypriots that their strong pro-settlement resolution would be rewarded by the European Union and the United States with the lifting of the international isolation of northern Cyprus even if peace efforts failed and the island could not resolve the decades-old power-sharing problem between its two ethnically, linguistically and religiously different groups of people. On that "road to resolution," settlement efforts suffered a very important setback when Greek Cypriots rejected the Annan, or U.N., peace plan, in the 2004 referendum. Just five days afterward, Greek Cypriots were awarded with EU membership despite their "no" vote, while Turkish Cypriots were pushed into an even more intractable international isolation, thus punished.
Though some palliative moves were undertaken by the EU and the U.S., and though Talat was accorded red-carpet treatment by some countries, in reality nothing changed in northern Cyprus toward the betterment of the living conditions of Turkish Cypriots. Mothers who voted during the 2003-2005 period for settlement and for pro-settlement candidates in hopes that at least their isolation would end, that their sons and grandsons would see a future on the island and not have to leave it, have lost all their hopes. Furthermore, in the renewed Cyprus talks, Talat has not thus far been able to achieve any substantive progress on any of the fundamental issues, and has bowed to the "I will leave the talks, unlessÉ" blackmail of Demetris Christofias and agreed to the "single citizenship, single sovereignty" demands of the Greek Cypriot side.
Now, Talat is appealing to Turkish Cypriots, saying that if he and his supporters are not given support in the April elections, there will be chaos on the island. The answer of the Turkish Cypriots: We are fed up! Let it be!
11 Mart 2009