Cyprus-Forum.com

[YFred]

The end of the Cyprus Problem?
By Ozay Mehmet

EVERYTHING must come to an end – even the Cyprus Problem, the never ending saga of Turkish and Greek Cypriots to find an acceptable formula of sovereignty sharing to live together in a united island.

It looks like the much-heralded Talat-Christofias talks are deadlocked, even though brave faces keep an appearance of guarded optimism, hoping, against all hope, that some miracle can still come their way.

Acrimony and angry words have replaced the earlier air of cordiality in these talks aimed at creating a new state in Cyprus. Talat has been accused of looking more like Denktash, tha uncompromising partitionist leader that dominated Turkish Cypriot politics for 40 years. For his part, Talat has accused Christofias of negotiating in bad faith, making international agreements presuming that the existing Greek Cypriot Republic will live forever.

A year ago, shortly after Christofias surprisingly won at the polls against the intransigent Papadopoulos, the new chemistry of the Talat-Christofias talks was almost universally welcomed as the last real chance of peace and reconciliation in Cyprus.

Alas, now, after a year of slow and fruitless negotiations, hopes for a “made at home” solution are all but gone. In the latest property discussions, Christofias has adopted an uncompromising position demanding repossession and right of return for former Greek Cypriot owners, effectively rejecting the key provisions of the Annan Plan.

If Talat looks like Denktash, then Christofias appears more and more like Papadopoulos who passed away last year. Papadopoulos had joined a long list of heartbroken Greek Cypriot leaders, like Makarios and Grivas, men who had conflicting visions of Enosis, union with Greece.

It is uncertain how deep-rooted old visions are in the hearts and minds of Greek Cypriots. Judging by the sentiments expressed not only at the Papadopoulos funeral, but by the wide cross-section of the masses in the south, especially amongst the younger segments, the support is minimal at the grass roots for a genuinely equal power sharing with the Turkish Cypriots in a new state on the island.

Put simply, the vast majority do not want to give up the existing Greek Cypriot Republic of Cyprus, now an EU member, for any new state in partnership with the Turkish Cypriots.

Moreover, the Greek Cypriot side is still busily pushing the legal card, trying to solve the property issue, the crux of the Cyprus Problem, through European courts. It looks now that the precedent-setting Orams case may have validity throughout the EU territory.

If that is indeed the case, and Europeans owning houses on Greek Cypriot owned land in the north become subject to costly dispossession, then the real estate market in north Cyprus may well be dealt a mortal blow.

The Greek Cypriots may score big in European courts. They may even win new victories on the political and diplomatic arenas.

Europe has its own agenda with Turkey. Enlargement Commissioner Ollie Rhen has declared that 2009 will be a “critical test” in EU-Ankara relations. Ankara’s long standing ambition for EU membership may be dealt a mortal blow. Driven more by xenophobia, sometime in 2009, the EU may punish Turkey over Ankara’s refusal to open Turkish ports to Greek Cypriot shipping and accept the Cyprus government as legitimate.

What would be the consequences of these Greek Cypriot victories? Permanent partition… Denktash who almost single-handedly managed to get Cyprus into the EU in 2004, will be repaid the favour by Greek Cypriots celebrating their pyrrhic victory.

What about the Turkish Cypriots? They will, like it or not, be Turkified as more and more Turks will arrive and the north will come under Turkish dominance. That has been the steady trend since 1994 ever since the European court order against exports to Europe.

The public mood in the north, nervous as a result of the global financial crisis, is simply angry with politics and politicians, at home and abroad. They feel frustrated and let down.

There is anger at the failure of the EU to keep its solemn promises of ending the isolation and embargoes after the 2004 referenda in which large amounts of EU money was spent to win a ‘yes’ vote, only to be frustrated by the overwhelming ‘no’ in the south.

When Talat replaced the old boss Denktash, hopes for an acceptable, comprehensive settlement were raised once more. These hopes were further fuelled with the surprising victory of Christofias in presidential election a year ago.

But alas, the dynamics of the Cyprus Problem are overwhelming leadership. The grassroots, both in the south and the north, are going nationalist and uncompressing.

In the north, Eroglu, the ageing oligarch of the old guard has come out of retirement to take charge of the nationalist agenda. Early elections are planned for Spring 2009, and most likely a new coalition government will emerge with virtually no heart for the Talat-Christofias talks.

In fact, Talat himself will have to face presidential elections in 2010. By then, the Cypriot talks may well be buried because Ankara may receive bad news from Brussels that the EU has decided to call off or suspend negotiations for membership.

With no incentive left to negotiate, the Christofias-Talat talks will simply vanish away. No one will walk away; they will simply melt away like spring snow. And with that the last hope for a united Cyprus will disappear.

n Dr Ozay Mehmet, Ph.D is Professor Emeritus of International Affairs at Canada’s Carleton University

Copyright © Cyprus Mail 2009

[Viewpoint]

Agree 100%

[YFred]

Agree 100%

Sadly I agree too.
I can't believe what is coming out of Mr X's mouth.
I asked this question when I first joined. I now realise that even Akel is hellenist. My worst fears are realised.

[Viewpoint]

Agree 100%

Sadly I agree too.
I can't believe what is coming out of Mr X's mouth.
I asked this question when I first joined. I now realise that even Akel is hellenist. My worst fears are realised.

They were the best chance we had, now thats fast disappearing.

[YFred]

Agree 100%

Sadly I agree too.
I can't believe what is coming out of Mr X's mouth.
I asked this question when I first joined. I now realise that even Akel is hellenist. My worst fears are realised.

They were the best chance we had, now thats fast disappearing.

Yep, it's still is. I will not give up hope yet till the end of this year. If no agreement materialises, then its over.

[denizaksulu]

If the negotiators do 'melt away like spring snow', it will be a sad day. The Nationalist GCs, those that rightly wish to get their homes back (as those opposed to any settlement to live side by side with the TC's) will not stop till more blood is spilt. The future looks gloomy indeed. It is not the end of the Cyprob, but the beginning of the next phase.

[Viewpoint]

Agree 100%

Sadly I agree too.
I can't believe what is coming out of Mr X's mouth.
I asked this question when I first joined. I now realise that even Akel is hellenist. My worst fears are realised.

They were the best chance we had, now thats fast disappearing.

Yep, it's still is. I will not give up hope yet till the end of this year. If no agreement materialises, then its over.

I gave up after the AP referendum and this forum confirms how right I am everyday.

[Get Real!]

They were the best chance we had, now thats fast disappearing.

What chances? Had you been in touch with reality you would’ve known that it was a waste of time from the start. Even if Christofias was to accept Turkish blackmails to cede Cypriot territory (and he didn’t) the Greek Cypriot citizens would NEVER accept such stupidities so either way it was a lost case and complete waste of time.

You THINK you are a “dominant community” but in the eyes of the Greek Cypriots you’re just a little nuisance wasting our time.

There is nothing admirable about using someone else’s military to force your way into undemocratic Ottoman rubbish just so you can be knocked back down again once your pimp is gone… swim against the current and you’ll drown.

[Viewpoint]

They were the best chance we had, now thats fast disappearing.

What chances? Had you been in touch with reality you would’ve known that it was a waste of time from the start. Even if Christofias was to accept Turkish blackmails to cede Cypriot territory (and he didn’t) the Greek Cypriot citizens would NEVER accept such stupidities so either way it was a lost case and complete waste of time.

You THINK you are a “dominant community” but in the eyes of the Greek Cypriots you’re just a little nuisance wasting our time.

There is nothing admirable about using someone else’s military to force your way into undemocratic Ottoman rubbish just so you can be knocked back down again once your pimp is gone… swim against the current and you’ll drown.

It was fine when you wanted to do it but when you got beaten at your own game you lost and now you cry...you are right we pinned hopes on President Talat but of course he cannot create miracles out of a despot and pig headed GC population who only want more land and to rule the whole of Cyprus, feel free to withdraw from the talks at anytime and allow us to go our own way as we have been doing for the last 35 years, at least people on both sides will close the chapter on trying to negotiate something which will never materialize.

[insan]

They were the best chance we had, now thats fast disappearing.

What chances? Had you been in touch with reality you would’ve known that it was a waste of time from the start. Even if Christofias was to accept Turkish blackmails to cede Cypriot territory (and he didn’t) the Greek Cypriot citizens would NEVER accept such stupidities so either way it was a lost case and complete waste of time.

You THINK you are a “dominant community” but in the eyes of the Greek Cypriots you’re just a little nuisance wasting our time.

There is nothing admirable about using someone else’s military to force your way into undemocratic Ottoman rubbish just so you can be knocked back down again once your pimp is gone… swim against the current and you’ll drown.

Poor GR! When Athens backed Grivas was in Cyprus with thousands of Greek troops u were flying with the hapiness of invading Cyprus. Don't u know that existence of Turkish army here is because of Greek attempts to invade Cyprus, illegal NG and ur so-called Republic of Cyprus? Is there something admirable of using Greece's status in Nato and EU to occupy 61% of Cyprus(our island) and build a so-called Banana Republic of Cyprus on that occupied land?