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Turkish Airline Crash in Amsterdam

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Postby Paphitis » Thu Mar 05, 2009 10:48 am

Kikapu wrote:
Turkish pilots blame turbulence for plane crash
12 hours ago

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) — A Turkish pilots' group claims turbulence from a large plane landing at Amsterdam airport may have caused the crash of a Turkish Airlines flight in which nine people died.

Turkey Airline Pilots' Association Secretary-General Savas Sen said late Friday that a large Boeing 757 had landed at Schiphol Airport two minutes earlier. Sen said that plane most likely created "wake turbulence" that hampered the Turkish aircraft's landing.

Wake turbulence forms behind an aircraft as it passes through the air.

Nine people, including three pilots and a flight attendamt, were killed when the flight from Istanbul to Amsterdam suddenly lost speed and crashed a mile short of the runway on Wednesday.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/art ... AD96KF8382


It's about time that the Turkish official stopped making things up as they go along as to what happened to Flight TK 1951. From day one of the crash, it has been one misinformation after another, just to try and put the blame on anything but a possible pilot error. Pilots are very specially skilled individuals and I have the greatest respect for them, but please, they are also human and as humans, they also make mistakes. Any air crash is never down to one thing, but rather multiple of errors that result in a crash, unless the crash was intentional caused by others, which was not the case here.

Lets look at the silly assertions made by the Turkish Pilots' group that a air turbulence from a "larger" aircraft, a Boeing 757 which landed 2 minutes earlier may have caused the fate of TK 1951. I say, Hogwash.! First of all, Boeing 757 is only heavier than the B737-800 empty or fully loaded by about a 1/3rd more and the aircraft's dimensions by only several meters, length and width from each other. " minutes gap between landing is the norm at any major airport. At Heathrow, they land at 2 minutes apart all day long, from a small passenger jets to the very very large ones, all day long. Terminal 5 is purely for British Airways, which means, all BA flights land on the same runway that is the closets to the new terminal 5, which means all types of aircraft land one after the other 2 minutes apart. Air turbulence can be a problem if a very small and slow private aircraft get into the larger aircrafts wake, but that was not the case here.

I think I will post my theory as to what happened soon, which is way more probable than what these so called "experts" are saying.!


Hi Kikapu,

I have been reading your posts with interest, and you seem to demonstrate quite an in depth technical knowledge.

You are quite right in saying that this accident was not likely to be caused by Wake Turbulence and I will explain why.

First of all, Wake Turbulence is a disturbance of the air caused primarily by wingtip vortices and also jet wash (gases expelled from jet engines). The severity of Wake Turbulence is increased behind larger and faster moving aircraft. Wake Turbulence is a major hazard, even for very large aircraft such as B747 or A380 if the longitudinal separation standards are not applied by Air Traffic Control. What most people don't comprehend is the fact that Wake Turbulence, or Wind Shear effects all aircraft by exactly the same degree and is irrespective of mass. This means that an A380 could crash from Wake Turbulence caused by a much smaller B737 if the A380 was close enough.

Here are some videos which will better explain the concept of Wake Turbulence:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1ESmvyAmOs

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__pyxPb6gMc&NR=1

When aircraft are on an Instrument Landing System (ILS) approach, there are ICAO longitudinal separation standards which ensure that jet aircraft have adequate longitudinal separation in order to avoid Wake Turbulence and this standard is as follow:

aircraft established on the same ILS localizer course are radar separated by a minimum of 3NM unless increased longitudinal separation is required due to Wake Turbulence.


The above standard does not necessarily mean that this criteria was followed in the case of the Turkish Airlines crash at Schiphol. There have been numerous reported cases where inadequate Wake Separation was applied at busy airports. This could potentially cause a major catastrophe, and as I said earlier, even an A380 can crash as a result of Wake Turbulence. An A380 and Cessna are effected by Wake Turbulence by exactly the same amount. In fact, a Cessna is probably more likely to survive a Wake Turbulence incident than a A380 or B747 as it does not have an 8 second engine spool up time when aborting the approach.

I strongly believe that the Wake Turbulence separation minimums would have been complied with by Schiphol Approach and Tower. If they were not, then Schiphol Air Traffic Control (ATC) would have contributed to this unfortunate accident. This will no doubt come out in the wash once the investigation is complete.

Another possible scenario could have been severe wind shear which is a rapid change in wind direction and/or wind speed. When aircraft are on approach they maintain a minimum speed of 1.3Vs or 1.3 times the stall speed. Lets assume the stall speed for a B737 with flaps extended is about 110kts. The minimum approach speed would then be about 143kts. The last recorded air speed from the Turkish Airlines B737 was reported to be 159kts. This means that the Turkish Airlines B737 was about 49kts above its stall speed. Therefore, wind shear can also be ruled out as the prevalent weather conditions whilst the Turkish Airlines B737 was on approach was as follows:

Metar 250955z 21010kt 4500 Br Bkn007 Ovc008 05/04 Q1027 Tempo 2500

Wind was 210/10kts and there was no mention of actual wind gusts or wind shear.

Even the Aerodrome Terminal Forecast was as follows:

Taf 250522z 2506/2612 22008kt 6000 Br Few012 Bkn016 Becmg
2508/2511 Sct004 Bkn006 Tempo 2508/2521 4000 Br -dz Prob30
Tempo 2508/2514 1200 -dzra Sct002 Bkn003 Becmg 2511/2514
24012kt Becmg 2523/2602 27015kt Becmg 2602/2605 9999 Nsw
Few020 Becmg 2608/2611 28017g28kt

The forecast above only indicates 28017g28kts which means that the wind was forecast as coming from 280 magnetic at 17kts and gusting to 28kts - Wind Shear of 11kts.

Wind shear can also be ruled out as 11 kts wind shear can not be considered the Primary cause of this accident. However, it could be deemed a Secondary Cause or contributor dependant on the other causes of this accident, because as you quite rightly pointed out, accidents are caused from a sequence of events and/or errors ranging from a breakdown of Standard Operating Procedures (Pilot Error) or Mechanical Failures such as Radar Altimeter Failure (:wink: Possible Primary Cause :wink:) or Auto Throttle disengaging etc etc...........

As far as coming up with possible explanations, well this is not a very easy process as many factors combine to cause an accident, and so I will need to wait for the investigation report. These reports are normally about 1000 pages long, so you can appreciate the complexities of this process and just how many things could have actually combined to cause this accident. Even the most minute detail is investigated.

I will answer your other brilliant and interesting posts later. :)
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Postby Paphitis » Thu Mar 05, 2009 12:58 pm

Kikapu wrote:
denizaksulu wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
Turkish pilots blame turbulence for plane crash
12 hours ago

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) — A Turkish pilots' group claims turbulence from a large plane landing at Amsterdam airport may have caused the crash of a Turkish Airlines flight in which nine people died.

Turkey Airline Pilots' Association Secretary-General Savas Sen said late Friday that a large Boeing 757 had landed at Schiphol Airport two minutes earlier. Sen said that plane most likely created "wake turbulence" that hampered the Turkish aircraft's landing.

Wake turbulence forms behind an aircraft as it passes through the air.

Nine people, including three pilots and a flight attendamt, were killed when the flight from Istanbul to Amsterdam suddenly lost speed and crashed a mile short of the runway on Wednesday.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/art ... AD96KF8382


It's about time that the Turkish official stopped making things up as they go along as to what happened to Flight TK 1951. From day one of the crash, it has been one misinformation after another, just to try and put the blame on anything but a possible pilot error. Pilots are very specially skilled individuals and I have the greatest respect for them, but please, they are also human and as humans, they also make mistakes. Any air crash is never down to one thing, but rather multiple of errors that result in a crash, unless the crash was intentional caused by others, which was not the case here.

Lets look at the silly assertions made by the Turkish Pilots' group that a air turbulence from a "larger" aircraft, a Boeing 757 which landed 2 minutes earlier may have caused the fate of TK 1951. I say, Hogwash.! First of all, Boeing 757 is only heavier than the B737-800 empty or fully loaded by about a 1/3rd more and the aircraft's dimensions by only several meters, length and width from each other. 2 minutes gap between landing is the norm at any major airport. At Heathrow, they land at 2 minutes apart all day long, from a small passenger jets to the very very large ones, all day long. Terminal 5 is purely for British Airways, which means, all BA flights land on the same runway that is the closets to the new terminal 5, which means all types of aircraft land one after the other 2 minutes apart. Air turbulence can be a problem if a very small and slow private aircraft get into the larger aircrafts wake, but that was not the case here.

I think I will post my theory as to what happened soon, which is way more probable than what these so called "experts" are saying.!



The mind boggles. Two minutes earlier another, larger plane lands; what are the Turkish ones made of? balsa wood?


I like to know where the "student pilot" was sitting in the cockpit at the time of the crash. What if the inexperience pilot was at the controls as the next pilot sitting next to him was too busy reading the instrument panel and was not paying any attention what the young pilot was doing or not doing, because as reported, there was mist at the airport, so the visibility was poor to say the least. This aircraft had a altitude problem in relationship to where the runway was, so it is obvious, there was an error right there, and when they broke through the clouds or the mist, they were practically on the field where they crashed, and the fact that the tail hit first, tells me that an attempt was made to raise the nose of the aircraft, but in doing so at such a low speed prepared for landing, it caused the aircraft to stall and fall back to the field hitting the tail first and also why the plane did not travel to far along the field, because the forward momentum was greatly reduced the moment the aircraft stalled. Once the nose was raised to prevent hitting the ground and it began to lose lift, no amount of engine power added at that moment could have lifted the plane to safety. It was all too sudden, all to fast and all too late. It does not even matter who was at the controls, if the above scenario happened as I suspect from seeing the wreckage, even the captain could not do anything to save his plane if the ground was coming at him at 180 miles an hour with only few hundred feet between the ground and the plane. I do believe, that an attempt was made to lift the nose, but at 500 feet per minute decent rate for landing, few hundred feet would have been reached in no time.


It all really depends in what context the term "student pilot" is used. All too often these so called "Student Pilots" have more flying experience than the Training Captain and I will explain further.

A student pilot could be a newly recruited pilot being trained up as a First Officer. All too often these student pilots are recruited straight from the air force and could actually have been flying jet fighters, bombers, Maritime Patrol aircraft, AWACS or heavy transports as Pilot in Command. Therefore, the term "Student Pilot" can be very deceiving for that persons true competencies and experience level. It is not uncommon for the so called "Student Pilot" to be more experienced that the Training Captain but inexperienced at Airline Operations if from an Air Force background.

Having a "Student Pilot" at the controls may not be an important factor in this accident. If he was at the controls, then the Captain would have tried to take over if he had time to do so. But the actual fact that the the Training Captain also did not notice anything wrong until it was too late raises some very interesting questions. The possible scenarios are endless.

My own employer has recently poached pilots from Canada, UK and South Africa, all with various backgrounds such as RAF, Ezy Jet, Canadian Airlines and South African Airways and all very experienced pilots but could still be deemed a "Student Pilot" because he is new to the company and undergoing Line Training until checked off as a First Officer (Co-pilot) regardless of the fact that they may have been a B747 Captain with Canadian Airlines or South African Airways.

Naturally, pilots that are poached from the Air Force or were Captains with their previous company are fast tracked for command as soon as there is a vacancy or slot. These pilots leap frog the lesser experience ones unless seniority rules apply.

The so called Turkish Airlines "Student Pilot" could very well have been a former TAF trained pilot being line trained as a First Officer. If this is the case, then I would not refer to him as "inexperienced".

Taf 250522z 2506/2612 22008kt 6000 Br Few012 Bkn016 Becmg
2508/2511 Sct004 Bkn006 Tempo 2508/2521 4000 Br -dz Prob30
Tempo 2508/2514 1200 -dzra Sct002 Bkn003 Becmg 2511/2514
24012kt Becmg 2523/2602 27015kt Becmg 2602/2605 9999 Nsw
Few020 Becmg 2608/2611 28017g28kt

According to the above forecast, wind was 220/08kts with FEW(1-4 Oktas or half a sky) clouds at 1200FT, broken cloud at 600FT (7/8s of a sky). Visibility was 4000m, deteriorating to 1200m in drizzle and rain and with TEMPO broken as low as 300FT for periods lasting less than 60minutes.

The conditions were not ideal, but non visual approaches are second nature. Visibility of 4000m and a cloud base of 600FT is just another day in the office, but things get quite interesting when visibility is down to 1200m and the cloud base is 200-300FT. To put this into perspective, the Pilots will only become VISUAL during the last few seconds of the approach.

Apparently the below 13 points are going to be included in the report by Boeing:

1. there no evidence of fuel shortage, bird strike, icing, wind shear, wake turbulence, or engine, system or control malfunction
2. the first officer was initially flying the aircraft and was inexperienced in airline operations
3. autopilot and auto throttle were in use
4. the aircraft was initially high and fast on the approach and at about 2,000ft above ground the throttles were pulled to idle
5. the auto throttle went to "retard" mode and the throttles then stayed at idle for about 100 seconds during which time the speed fell to 40kt below reference speed
6. the aircraft descended through the glide slope with the captain talking the first officer through the before landing checklist
7. the stick shaker activated at about 400ft above ground and the first officer increased power
8. the captain took control and as the first officer released the throttles they moved to idle due to being in "retard" mode
9. after six seconds the throttles were advanced but as the engines responded the aircraft hit the ground in a slightly nose-high attitude
10. throughout the episode the left-hand radio altimeter read negative seven feet altitude, but the right-hand radalt worked correctly

Boeing will warn crews about fundamentals like flying the aircraft, monitoring airspeed, monitoring altitude, and will give advice about radalt issues.

To me it sounds like a complete loss of Situational Awareness and that the pilots managed to get distracted from properly scanning the instruments which is imperative in zero visibility. They then got disorientated and flew through the glideslope as the auto throttle was in Retard mode due to being high and fast and possibly due to the Radalt failure. The aircraft went 40kts below Vref - thus practically stalling.

Vref = 1.3 times Vs and Vs is the stall speed for the aircraft in landing configuration (gear and flap down).

There is only a 30% buffer when at Vref, and so if the aircraft had lost 40kts, then it is practically game over at such low altitudes as the glideslope only guarantees 100FT Obstacle Clearance with half scale deflection. What this means is that once they flew through the glide slope, the pilots may have only had 100FT of altitude to recover from the stall.


So this raises the possibility of the auto pilot inadvertently disengaging or failing! :? It may have been overridden by the pilots.

Don't worry about the "Student Pilot". The above does not say much about the former TAF Training Captain of the B737.. :?
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Postby Kikapu » Thu Mar 05, 2009 11:20 pm

Paphitis, thanks for your in-depth explanations on this subject. I have few comments to make when I get the time.!

Soon I hope.!
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Postby Get Real! » Fri Mar 06, 2009 12:46 am

Is Paphitis still struggling with that Cessna license? :lol:
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Postby Paphitis » Fri Mar 06, 2009 11:56 am

Well Kikapu, it seems obvious that the Pilots of the THY Airlines 737-800 are going to cop the majority of the blame for this accident. That is not to say that there may have been other factors that contributed to this accident such as ATC, or other system failures such as Radar Altimeter (RA) 1 (Captain's Radalt). The RA was giving false readouts and was indicating -8FT, which is the the approximate elevation of Schiphol. The airport elevation is -11FT at this aerodromes reference datum. This is why the Auto Throttle (AT) kept resetting itself to idle power, as it was coupled with RA 1 which was malfunctioning. The AT basically thought it was on the ground.

I have been looking at this accident for quite some time as it is difficult for me to comprehend how the pilots actually flew through the Glide Slope. It seems that all three pilots were doing anything but actually fly the plane. Regardless of the fact that the aircraft had supposedly the Auto Pilot on and locked on the Glide Slope and Localizer for an auto landing, no pilot was actually scanning the instruments for attitude, altitude, airspeed, and none of them had their hand on the throttle or yoke. It appears that the Captain was preoccupied with talking the trainee FO through the pre-landing checklist, a task that is normally completed before the commencement of the ILS approach or Final Approach Fix (FAF). The aircraft was already well into the ILS approach and the crew were still conducting their checks. :?

Basically, the pilots had no situational awareness and very basic principles of Airmanship were not followed. It is hard to appreciate how this could have happened. There must have been other factors that had placed the pilots in this situation such as Radar Vectoring for an ILS intercept past the FAF of the ILS so that the THY can expedite. This is quite common at busy airports such as Schiphol. But naturally there is no excuse for not actually flying the aircraft and scanning the instruments. This was a severe break down of Standard Operating Procedures.

The throttles were at idle power for around 100 seconds and in this time they lost 40 knots off their Vref. The aircraft descended through the Glide Slope and by the time the Captain had noticed, it was too late.

The word on the street is that the AP was locked on RA 1 which had failed. RA 2 was functional. With the command RA failed, the aircraft was not adequately equipped to conduct an Auto landing as it is a requirement to have 2 functioning RAs. Therefore, with RA 1 failed the aircraft is not adequately equipped to conduct a CAT 1 (Auto land) ILS approach. Please see the below JPEG of the Schiphol Runway 18R ILS CAT1 /CAT11 approach plate which is the exact approach the THY B737 was flying.

Image

Basically, with RA 1 failed, the aircraft is only permitted to fly a CAT 11 ILS with autopilot coupled to the operating RA 2. This means that they are only permitted to fly down to an RA of 100FT by which time the AP must be disengaged and a positive Rate of Climb with missed approach power set if not visual.

If the RA 1 was operating, then the aircraft could have completed the Auto land right onto the runway. I must say that in Australia we do not do any Auto landings as we only have CAT11 and CAT111 ILS approaches. It is also our SOP to have all pre-landing checks completed prior to the commencement of the ILS with Gear Down and Landing Flap selected. We basically hand fly the ILS approach and I would not have it any other way as there is no better way of maintaining a thorough Situational Awareness whilst the Runway is not in sight.

Another factor is that the crew were not monitoring the Pressure Altimeter which gives a readout of Altitude above Mean Sea Level. These Pressure Altimeters are set to Aerodrome QNH or ambient pressure on the surface which was 1027 HPa as you can see from the METAR (Met Report) I posted above. The pilots should have completed Altimeter checks for every 500FT and also checked Altimeters for accuracy at a distance of 4nms from the Middle Marker (M). If you look at the side profile of the above JPEG, you will see D4.0 GS1310. At this point the pilots should have cross checked the Altimeter which should read 1310FT of they were on profile. This check was not done. If it were done, then the crew may have noticed the Glide slope deflecting and the aircraft creeping below the required profile. Naturally, Attitude and Airspeed checks should also be conducted every few seconds regardless of the fact that the AP was suppose to fly the ship.

Also, there should have been a Radalt Master Warning on the annunciator panel, which is quite hard to miss as this is a rather bright red flashing light designed to capture the crew's attention. There should also have been a light audible warning or alarming. Rumours are that the Pilots may have been wearing noise canceling headsets, and this may also be another factor. There is also a possibility that the Radalt Master Warning may have also failed as did the cabin pressure Master Warning on the Helios B737 that crashed in Greece. :?

Below is a diagram of Schiphol Airport:

Image

The THY B737 was on an ILS CAT 1 ILS approach for Runway 18R.

The aircraft's final course was 184 degrees magnetic according to the Mode S Transponder Squawk. As you can see from the ILS JPEG above, this final course is consistent with the Runway ILS final course of 184 which means that the aircraft AP was maintaining the Localizer. The AP however was not maintaining the Glide Slope as the AT went into RETARD as the command RA 1 was reading -8FT.

Direction 184 degrees magnetic.

The aircraft crashed 1NM short of Runway 18R.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

I will be happy to answer any of your questions.

BTW, I was very impressed with your background knowledge. :wink: Have you ever undergone any pilot training in the past?

And thank you for offering rare mental stimulation on CF. :)

And BTW, I am no Aircraft Crash Investigator either. When the report is released we will have a better understanding and do not be surprised if many other factors have contributed to this unfortunate accident. The above explanation is just my understanding of what might have occurred with the limited information at my disposal. I look forward to getting a copy of the report.

Also, it would appear that the Turkish Media have not been truthful about this accident. There was nothing heroic about the THY pilot's actions. They were clearly only on the flight deck as passengers and were never in charge of the situation. They were just there for the ride. This is very surprising for me, considering the fact that the Turkish Captain was a former F4 pilot in the TAF. :? :?
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Postby Kikapu » Sun Mar 08, 2009 9:48 pm

Paphitis,

Well done with the above information. You have given us much clearer picture as to what happened to TK 1951 than the Turkish media so far.

My experience in Aviation is somewhat limited and I would not consider myself as being a pilot, even though I have done some flying in the past on single engines as a hobby. I have been interested in Aviation since childhood however, and spend a lot of time at municipal and major airports as a "plane junkie" or “plane spotter”, as well as attended many air shows.! I have also spent a lot of time in the past with people in Aviation, from pilots to flight attendants to ground crew as well as took part in operating a small air tours company with others. I also spent many times in the cockpit, as a jump seat passenger with FedEx pilots flying mostly "Red Eye" around the country in Boeing 727's, DC-10'S and Boeing 747's. The FedEx pilots were great to share information during these flights. Granted, this was many years ago, therefore many new gadgets have since been introduced to new aircrafts, but the basic operating principles were the same. I have not done any flying for a long time (in command), but follow the industry as much as possible, and I take great interest in air crashes to learn as much as possible as to what may have happened. To me, from what I saw of the wreckage, I had pretty good idea what may have happened to TK 1951, and was very close to the truth than not.

I have been doing a lot of sailing instead of flying, and people may be very surprise to know, that the basic principles of aerodynamics of low/high air pressures on an aircraft wings are the same as they are on the sails on a sail boat, specially when going “close to the wind”. Is just that one wing is horizontal and the other “wing” is vertical. If you can sail, you can fly, or vice versa, at least knowing what makes the plane to “float” in air and what makes a sail boat to move forward without engine power. I had the pleasure of both and still continue with sailing when ever possible these days. But flying is magical, and when ever I book my seat on a commercial plane these days, I get the window seat towards the back of the plane, so that I can follow the settings of the flaps with speed and altitude on the GPS map in front of me when ever possible, or look up to the sky when ever I hear a plane noise to try and identify what type of an aircraft it is, no matter how high it is flying. I’m just a “big kid” really.!

Now, let me clear the air on my referring to the young pilot as a "student pilot". I did use the quotation marks, which was to mean, that he was not an inexperienced pilot. In the US, one needs to have minimum of 1500 flying hours ( combination, single, multi engines) to even sit for their ATP ( Airline Transport Pilot), therefore, anyone being trained as a first officer, more than likely have their ATP already. I'm sure so did this young pilot. However, as you know, each equipment then requires that one is trained to get their ratings on specific aircraft, and this was the purpose why the young pilot was in the cockpit I believe. Too bad his career ended so short in doing what he loved.

Now, about the turbulence effect that was claimed by the Turkish pilots group that may have effected the flight, which they claimed that the ATC did not warn TK 1951 of the B-757 landing 2 minutes earlier. This is a very embarrassing statement by a professional organisation. First of all, the crew of the TK 1951 listen in to all conversations from the Control Tower to all planes who are on holding pattern before landing, because they are all on the same radio frequency, therefore, everyone knows where everyone is, and the fact that 2 minutes were used to separate aircraft on the final approach, standard landing rules were carried out by the ATC.

Since there were no storm in the area, wind sheer was the least likely reason for causing the flight to lose altitude so sudden. The only time this can be a problem, and few planes did crash on take off and landing in the states, due to wind sheer, is when the wind sheer becomes a "down draft" which the wind goes towards the ground at high speed and force, which slams the landing aircraft to the ground short of the runway while trying to land or forces the aircraft about to take off to the ground as soon as it takes off, because it does not have enough speed to counter the "down draft" effects of the wind sheer. Airport around the world are now stalling/have installed equipment to measure wind sheers, which can come and go very suddenly, so that the ATC can warn pilot on final approach and those who are cleared for take off.

If as you say, that the landing check-list was being done when they were on final approach, does seem to indicate that they were too busy with other talk and not really being very vigilant giving the fact, they were flying “blind”. What I want to know is, when was the Auto-Pilot engaged. Was it only on the final approach or before, on base, or downwind leg, or were they on Auto from being in the holding pattern.? I ask this question, because when anything is on auto, we tend to get little too complacent in paying attention to details, because we believe in “GEORGE” to take us to the correct runway and land us safely. Might explain why the landing check-list was delayed or that the new pilot was a distraction in a way, that the captain was willing to spend too much time in teaching him.

I don’t know the answer to this, but I wonder what is the general attitude with the Turkish airlines flight deck crews in questioning the actions of the captain. It is well known, that some captains do not like to be questioned on the operation in the cockpit which tends to create the situation that the first officer to keep his mouth shut rather than be belittled by the captain for questioning his authority. This would have been normal in the old days where the captain was “GOD” and that one would not dare to question his decision. This was one main reason as to why the two Boeing 747 crashed on a foggy runway in Tenerife in the 70’s, because the Dutch captain, who also happened to be the Test Pilot for KLM, over ruled the first officer’s claim, that PanAm was still on the runway, when the captain gave orders to start rolling for take off. Well, half way down the runway, they broad sided the PanAm plane, and since they heard the KLM calling the tower that they were ready for take off, PanAm “gunned” the engines to get of the runway and onto the grass as much as possible, and since the airports ground radar was not working, the tower assumed that the runway was clear and gave clearance for take off for KLM. Well, all on the KLM died and most on PanAm. Since then, the “rule of engagement” in the cockpit was changed by many airlines, and that when things are not what they should be, the first officer had the responsibility to take action if the captain refused to re examine the concerns of the first officer, that no disciplinary actions can be brought against the first officer for standing his/her ground. As I said, I don’t know how the crew on Turkish planes operate. For sure, the junior pilot did not dare to say anything as to why the captain kept on ignoring the altimeter reading for 100 seconds showing altitude at –8ft.!

Just one more bad thing happened to TK 1951. As the captain tried to save his plane from hitting the ground and by pulling on the controls to raise the nose at such a low speed and at a rapid change in the “angle of attack”, not only the engines would not have had enough time to generate enough trust in such a short time, but an aircraft trying to do a rapid “V” shape manoeuvre by first descending and then trying to make a sharp ascend, would have added certain amount of G-Forces on the aircraft, which would have increased the “apparent” weight of the aircraft to a point, just this action alone would have stalled the aircraft, even if the plane did have more power than it did. Over all, it was a no win situation for the crew at the moment the Auto Pilot tried to make a rapid landing a mile short of the runway, due to the faulty altimeter that confused the Auto Pilot. Hind sight, had the pilots did not intervened in the last few remaining seconds, the plane would have made a landing on the field , with the landing gear collapsing upon touchdown, no doubt, as the case was with British airways Boeing 777 at Heathrow last year. But if the plane did not collide with anything, it is possible, all could have walked away from this crash with less injury and death. Having said that, I would have done the same thing what the captain tried to do but failed, and that was to save his plane and all those aboard. It is only human nature to try and survive.
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Postby dinos » Mon Mar 09, 2009 4:11 pm

Kikapu wrote:Hi Dinos,

Auto-pilot landings are designed for the conditions where visibility is very poor, as the case was in Amsterdam. Modern jets and most major airports are equipped for Auto-instrument landing. I landed in London once on a Boeing 747 coming from the states almost 15-20 years ago in bad weather where the pilot told us after landing, that the plane made a full auto landing. It was one of the smoothers landings I've had.!

In aviation, pilots tend to put a lot of trust in their equipment, and they really do not have very many options, but to trust what the instruments are telling them, specially in conditions where you have no visibility, either close to the ground in a fog or in the clouds high above. The brain can't even tell which way is up or down most of the time when you can't see the horizon or other heavenly bodies. But what I don't understand is, why didn't the pilot take action when they noticed the altimeter give a false reading all of a sudden.? By the time they realised the dangers of it, because the information from the altimeter is fed to the auto-pilot, it was all to late, since the plane made a few hundred feet drop in no time, because as far as the auto pilot was concerned, they were just above the runway, therefore it reduced power to set the plane down, which is about the same speed as having a "controlled stall" to reduce lift on the wings.

Well, once the pilots saw the field and not the runway in the last seconds, first they had to disengage the auto pilot and then "gun" the engines at full power, but the plane was already sinking and losing lift due to already loss of power instructed by the auto pilot. As soon as the nose was lifted by the pilot to avoid hitting the ground, the stall became even more irreversible and the engines had zero effect and fell to the ground hitting the tail first. This is what saved most of the passengers, that the plane was travelling slow and pointing up as the tail hit the ground first, although it was also reported, that one of the engines (No 1-left) may have also truck the motorway, because the No 2-right engine can be seen in the picture just forward of the right wing, which also gives the indication, that the wing slammed downward at relatively low forward moving speed forcing the engine to tear off the wing and be thrown forward, since most of the engine is mounted forward of the wing to begin with.

Perhaps "BigOz" who claims to be a pilot and an instructor on passenger planes can give us more information on what happened. Perhaps "skyvet" and "Paphitis" can also weigh in on this. The whole thing is a tragic. Just like sailboats, the biggest danger to planes is LAND. In order to make any kind of recovery from a mistake, a plane needs a lot of altitude, just as a sailboat needs a lot of water between itself and land in a storm or in loss of steering.!


My reference point was with military planes back in the mid to late 1990s and I've thankfully moved on since then. At that time, altimeters had some tolerance in them (+/- 3 feet or so) and that's why nobody would land on instruments. It's one thing if the plane tries to land you 3 feet above the ground. If it tries to land you 3 feet below the ground, that doesn't make for a very happy day.

The instruments have obviously improved since then and that's a good thing.

I'll add my thanks as well to Paphitis for explaining this in detail...
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Postby Paphitis » Mon Mar 09, 2009 4:34 pm

My experience in Aviation is somewhat limited and I would not consider myself as being a pilot, even though I have done some flying in the past on single engines as a hobby. I have been interested in Aviation since childhood however, and spend a lot of time at municipal and major airports as a "plane junkie" or “plane spotter”, as well as attended many air shows.! I have also spent a lot of time in the past with people in Aviation, from pilots to flight attendants to ground crew as well as took part in operating a small air tours company with others. I also spent many times in the cockpit, as a jump seat passenger with FedEx pilots flying mostly "Red Eye" around the country in Boeing 727's, DC-10'S and Boeing 747's. The FedEx pilots were great to share information during these flights. Granted, this was many years ago, therefore many new gadgets have since been introduced to new aircrafts, but the basic operating principles were the same. I have not done any flying for a long time (in command), but follow the industry as much as possible, and I take great interest in air crashes to learn as much as possible as to what may have happened. To me, from what I saw of the wreckage, I had pretty good idea what may have happened to TK 1951, and was very close to the truth than not.


Well, it was very obvious to me that you had received some form of pilot training. The biggest difference between flying a light single engine aircraft is Asymmetric Flight and the more advance Avionics and Navigation Systems. Everything else is pretty much the same.

I have been doing a lot of sailing instead of flying, and people may be very surprise to know, that the basic principles of aerodynamics of low/high air pressures on an aircraft wings are the same as they are on the sails on a sail boat, specially when going “close to the wind”. Is just that one wing is horizontal and the other “wing” is vertical. If you can sail, you can fly, or vice versa, at least knowing what makes the plane to “float” in air and what makes a sail boat to move forward without engine power. I had the pleasure of both and still continue with sailing when ever possible these days. But flying is magical, and when ever I book my seat on a commercial plane these days, I get the window seat towards the back of the plane, so that I can follow the settings of the flaps with speed and altitude on the GPS map in front of me when ever possible, or look up to the sky when ever I hear a plane noise to try and identify what type of an aircraft it is, no matter how high it is flying. I’m just a “big kid” really.!


You are absolutely correct!

The Basic Principles of Aerodynamics are also applicable to sailing. Also, Maritime Navigation principles and Aircraft Navigation are also very similar. We both speak the same nautical language and off course you would be aware and familiar with calculating and adding Drift to your heading to make good your track.

You can say that the whole Pilot and Boating community is full of grown up kids having fun with their toys. Aviation and Boating is a passion as you know, and it requires dedication and a lot of hard work to become proficient

Now, let me clear the air on my referring to the young pilot as a "student pilot". I did use the quotation marks, which was to mean, that he was not an inexperienced pilot. In the US, one needs to have minimum of 1500 flying hours ( combination, single, multi engines) to even sit for their ATP ( Airline Transport Pilot), therefore, anyone being trained as a first officer, more than likely have their ATP already. I'm sure so did this young pilot. However, as you know, each equipment then requires that one is trained to get their ratings on specific aircraft, and this was the purpose why the young pilot was in the cockpit I believe. Too bad his career ended so short in doing what he loved.


It is not a requirement to reach 1500 hours to sit the ATPL. You are allowed to sit these exams even before you obtain The Commercial Pilot Licence (CPL) but not before you sit the CPL exams. If you pass the ATPL, then the licence is frozen or suspended until you obtain 1500 hours total time, 750 of which must be in command and 100 in command at night.

It is also not a requirement to have an ATPL to be an FO on a commercial airliner. It is a requirement to have the ATP in order to have a Command Upgrade. Some companies however, still require that FOs have an ATP before being recruited, but some other companies have abandoned this requirement as a result of the impending pilot shortage due to the economic boom, which is now a thing of the past.

But a pilot with a mere 1500 hours flying bug smashers around is still inexperienced with or without an ATP, even though the meet the requirements of becoming an FO on an advance high performance aircraft.

Now, about the turbulence effect that was claimed by the Turkish pilots group that may have effected the flight, which they claimed that the ATC did not warn TK 1951 of the B-757 landing 2 minutes earlier. This is a very embarrassing statement by a professional organisation. First of all, the crew of the TK 1951 listen in to all conversations from the Control Tower to all planes who are on holding pattern before landing, because they are all on the same radio frequency, therefore, everyone knows where everyone is, and the fact that 2 minutes were used to separate aircraft on the final approach, standard landing rules were carried out by the ATC.


This was a very embarrassing statement from the Turkish Pilot Group. If there was 2 minutes of separation between the THY B737 and the preceding B757, then this would translate to a longitudinal separation of 5NMS if the B737 was doing 150 knots. The B737 and B757 are CAT D aircraft which means that their velocity at the threshold (Vat) is between 141 and 165 knots.

The THY would have been aware of the B757 as they were transferred from Area Control, to Approach, then Arrival for sequencing for assigned Runway 18R and then Tower.

It is important to note that there are 2 Approach Frequencies, 2 Arrival Frequencies and 3 Tower Frequencies.

Since there were no storm in the area, wind sheer was the least likely reason for causing the flight to lose altitude so sudden. The only time this can be a problem, and few planes did crash on take off and landing in the states, due to wind sheer, is when the wind sheer becomes a "down draft" which the wind goes towards the ground at high speed and force, which slams the landing aircraft to the ground short of the runway while trying to land or forces the aircraft about to take off to the ground as soon as it takes off, because it does not have enough speed to counter the "down draft" effects of the wind sheer. Airport around the world are now stalling/have installed equipment to measure wind sheers, which can come and go very suddenly, so that the ATC can warn pilot on final approach and those who are cleared for take off.


As you say, wind shear was not a factor. Wind Shear by definition is a rapid change in wind speed and/or wind direction. It is primarily caused by big thunder storm anvils or Cumulonimbus Storm Clouds in the mature stage. However, milder forms of wind shear can also occur in situations where there is no storm. These changes in wind speed or gusts are usually not enough to cause a large aircraft a loss of lift to such an extent that it is unable to maintain its altitude.

http://weathereye.kgan.com/expert/tstorms/stages.html

During the Mature Stage, you have a violent updraft of air and a violent downdraft immediately adjacent to that, resulting in friction, lightning and wind shear. The down draft is powerful enough to push ANY aircraft onto the ground. This was not the case in Schiphol. Aircraft would avoid these storms at all costs and fly to their alternate aerodrome.

If as you say, that the landing check-list was being done when they were on final approach, does seem to indicate that they were too busy with other talk and not really being very vigilant giving the fact, they were flying “blind”. What I want to know is, when was the Auto-Pilot engaged. Was it only on the final approach or before, on base, or downwind leg, or were they on Auto from being in the holding pattern.? I ask this question, because when anything is on auto, we tend to get little too complacent in paying attention to details, because we believe in “GEORGE” to take us to the correct runway and land us safely. Might explain why the landing check-list was delayed or that the new pilot was a distraction in a way, that the captain was willing to spend too much time in teaching him.


As I said, it all points towards a total loss of Situational Awareness and a break down of Standard Operating Procedures. The crew were pre-occupied with other tasks and were not flying the aircraft. They were not scanning their instruments for attitude, altitude, airspeed, localizer and glideslope.

The AP is normally armed on departure by entering the route A to B in the Flight Management Computer. The FMC stores all route waypoints from A to B. The data base is updated 13 times a year as required to reflect Standard Instrument Departures (SIDs), approach changes, Standard Arrival (STAR) changes and waypoint and transition fix changes. Every Waypoint, Holding Pattern, Transition Fix and approach is stored into the FMC.

http://www.b737.org.uk/fmc.htm#FMC_Databases

The FMC route is entered by selecting the pre-stored route A to B before departing. The AP is armed immediately after departure, sometimes as low as 500FT. The AP will then fly the route A to B via waypoints B, C, D, E, F...and then to the Transition Fix X.

Transition Fix X is the final waypoint where Area Control will clear you for descent to an assigned altitude and transfer the aircraft to the appropriate Approach Controller. The assigned altitude is entered into the ALT window. The aircraft is still on AP whilst descending.

When the aircraft contacts Approach, it is assigned a Standard Arrival (STAR) and ILS Approach Runway (Rwy 18R). A STAR is a prescribed Standard Arrival and includes a new set of waypoints right up to the Final Approach Fix or the beginning of the Runway 18R ILS. The FAF is a distance of 6.2NMS from Runway 18R threshold and at this point the aircraft must be at 2000FT and configured for landing (Gear Down and Landing Flap set). All pre-landing checks, Emergency Briefings, and Missed Approach Briefing must be completed by this pint.

The Approach Controller will either allow the aircraft to proceed with the STAR or stack the aircraft into the Holding Pattern. Each STAR has 3 holding patterns at 3 separate waypoints. Runway 18R aircraft are usually stacked in one Holding Pattern whilst Runway 18C and Runway 18L aircraft are stacked into the other Holding Patterns. These Holding Patterns are stored in the FMC and when selected, the AP will fly the aircraft to that waypoint and complete the appropriate sector entry (a, b, c) into the Holding Pattern. The AP will just fly the Holding Pattern until the HOLD is canceled by the pilot.

Image

The aircraft would then be transferred to Arrival, where it is sequenced, cleared to descend to 2000FT and cleared for final. Here, the THY would be informed that it is number ... behind the B757.

The AP will then fly the aircraft to the FAF via any necessary waypoint/s. The pilots should now be preparing the aircraft for landing prior to arriving at the FAF. The Localizer and Glideslope(GS) must be armed and identified as well. All pre-landing checks and briefings must be complete. Gear and Flaps are set at the FAF. The Localizer will be intercepted by the AP. At the FAF the GS becomes live and moves up as it is intercepted by the AP. The AT adjusts power as required. The aircraft should now be ready and configured for landing. A 3.0 degree descent profile is achieved as the AP follows the GS to the Ground which is a rate of 862 Feet Per Minute at 160 knots. One pilot should have one hand on the throttles and another on the yoke and continuously scan all instruments for attitude, airspeed, altitude, localizer and GS. Radar Altimeter should be cross checked with the pressure altimeters. Pressure Altimeter checks should be done at 4.0NMS and read 1310FT for the Runway 18R ILS at Schiphol.

So to answer your question, the AP was probably engaged throughout the flight.

I don’t know the answer to this, but I wonder what is the general attitude with the Turkish airlines flight deck crews in questioning the actions of the captain. It is well known, that some captains do not like to be questioned on the operation in the cockpit which tends to create the situation that the first officer to keep his mouth shut rather than be belittled by the captain for questioning his authority. This would have been normal in the old days where the captain was “GOD” and that one would not dare to question his decision. This was one main reason as to why the two Boeing 747 crashed on a foggy runway in Tenerife in the 70’s, because the Dutch captain, who also happened to be the Test Pilot for KLM, over ruled the first officer’s claim, that PanAm was still on the runway, when the captain gave orders to start rolling for take off. Well, half way down the runway, they broad sided the PanAm plane, and since they heard the KLM calling the tower that they were ready for take off, PanAm “gunned” the engines to get of the runway and onto the grass as much as possible, and since the airports ground radar was not working, the tower assumed that the runway was clear and gave clearance for take off for KLM. Well, all on the KLM died and most on PanAm. Since then, the “rule of engagement” in the cockpit was changed by many airlines, and that when things are not what they should be, the first officer had the responsibility to take action if the captain refused to re examine the concerns of the first officer, that no disciplinary actions can be brought against the first officer for standing his/her ground. As I said, I don’t know how the crew on Turkish planes operate. For sure, the junior pilot did not dare to say anything as to why the captain kept on ignoring the altimeter reading for 100 seconds showing altitude at –8ft.!


Here you touch upon a very critical area. You are referring to Cockpit Resource Management (CRM) principles. This is the study of how crew interact with each other on the flight deck. These days, there is a narrow command gradient between the Captain and FO.

In the old days, the Captain was looked upon as "GOD" and the Captain himself usually believed he was "GOD" as well. These Captains usually intimidated their FO and believed that all FOs are there just to operate the Gear and Flap lever. They would not take too kindly in having their authority or ability questioned by a Green FO. They were arrogant and dominated the flight deck. The problem here is that the Captain basically cuts off a very valuable resource and reduces the Multi Crew environment to effectively a Single Pilot operation. There have been a number of accidents where inadequate CRM was a factor such as the Tenerife disaster.

Usually these types of pilots come from an Air Force or Military background and this has much to do with the training they received whilst in the Military. Also, some very senior Management Pilots, Check and Training Pilots have been known to be the main culprits. This does not mean that Air Force or Military pilots will not make good Airline Multi Crew pilots. It just means that Military Pilots need to be managed in a different manner to other pilots, and this is achieved by teaching proper CRM as part of the Ground School. Most Airlines have a CRM program, and THY should be no different if it is JAA compliant. However, the THY Captain of the B737 might be one of the old guard within his airline. We do know that he was a former TAF pilot and his command style might have been as aggressive as that of the KLM Captain in Tenerife. This might be another factor as you quite rightly insinuate and this will come out when investigators analyse the Cockpit Voice Recordings.

The Tenerife accident is used by our company as a case study within our CRM program BTW.

CRM does improve things somewhat. But it does not solve the issue altogether. The company's culture is also a factor. In my company, most pilots are recruited from the Air Force. Most Checkers and Senior Pilots are also from a Military background. It is amazing to analyse how pilots have separated themselves within different cliques (Military and the rest). Ex military pilots are also upgraded twice as fast and are a very protected species. Although we do apply CRM, we also have a couple of Captains that are renowned for being arseholes and no FO likes to fly with them. FOs however, are allowed to relieve the Captain of his command under certain circumstances and in accordance with the Operations Manual if the Captain is deemed to deviate from prescribed SOPs, which jeopardises safety.

Just one more bad thing happened to TK 1951. As the captain tried to save his plane from hitting the ground and by pulling on the controls to raise the nose at such a low speed and at a rapid change in the “angle of attack”, not only the engines would not have had enough time to generate enough trust in such a short time, but an aircraft trying to do a rapid “V” shape manoeuvre by first descending and then trying to make a sharp ascend, would have added certain amount of G-Forces on the aircraft, which would have increased the “apparent” weight of the aircraft to a point, just this action alone would have stalled the aircraft, even if the plane did have more power than it did. Over all, it was a no win situation for the crew at the moment the Auto Pilot tried to make a rapid landing a mile short of the runway, due to the faulty altimeter that confused the Auto Pilot. Hind sight, had the pilots did not intervened in the last few remaining seconds, the plane would have made a landing on the field , with the landing gear collapsing upon touchdown, no doubt, as the case was with British airways Boeing 777 at Heathrow last year. But if the plane did not collide with anything, it is possible, all could have walked away from this crash with less injury and death. Having said that, I would have done the same thing what the captain tried to do but failed, and that was to save his plane and all those aboard. It is only human nature to try and survive.


The information I have through the grapevine is that the aircraft had lost about 40knots from the Vref, which practically means the aircraft was almost stalled and not able to initiate a climb. By raising the nose, even more speed would have been washed off resulting which resulted in stalling the aircraft onto the ground.
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Postby Kikapu » Tue Mar 17, 2009 9:06 pm

Paphitis,

I had a great pleasure in reading your detailed explanations in the above post. It is obvious, that your knowledge in aviation is more than just flying kites.! :wink:

I'll add more to your post later.!
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Postby Oracle » Tue Mar 17, 2009 9:20 pm

:shock:

Maybe men are cleverer than women :?
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