Cyprus-Forum.com

[brother]

Where does this all leave Turkey?
By Myria Antoniadou in Brussels


TURKEY’S EU course is becoming more and more difficult and will definitely be affected not only by the ‘no’ in the French referendum, expected to be repeated today in The Netherlands, but also by a victory of the Christian Democrats (CDU) in Germany, European sources have told the Cyprus Mail.

They expressed the view that Ankara’s situation would not become clear until after the German elections on September 18 and recalled that Angela Merkel, the CDU candidate for Chancellor, had even travelled to Turkey to promote the idea of a “special relationship” instead of full membership.

The sources pointed out that Germany was the EU’s biggest political force, the “paymaster” of its system and with most votes in the European Parliament, where the Christian Democrats are the biggest political group.

Despite the Commission’s and other European heads’ efforts to convince that enlargement is not affected by the latest developments in the EU, diplomatic sources said that Turkey would inevitably be affected.

“I do not expect the accession talks scheduled for October 3 to be postponed after the French no,” one diplomat said, “but this result together with the outcome in Holland and the German elections will definitely influence the pace of the negotiations.” He believes much stricter conditions will be imposed on Ankara during the negotiations.
Sources in Brussels point to the fact that the citizens of Europe are sending their leaders the clear message that they are not in favour of enlargement, especially with a big, poor and predominantly Muslim county. They already fear the consequences of the present enlarged EU.

At the same time, they point out that if the Constitution does not go through, the EU will not have the institutional framework to accept Turkey. The Nice Treaty, they said, is not even satisfactory for the Europe of 27, as it does not address issues such as qualified majority voting.

Sources also expressed the view that when they gather in Brussels in June, Europe’s leaders will address the results of the two referendums but are not expected to discuss Turkey.

However, it is widely expected that a more tough position towards Ankara will be adopted in the ‘framework of negotiations’ to be approved by the Commission at the end of June. In an effort to show their citizens they mean business with Turkey, member states are expected to insist on tougher measures and conditions for the negotiations.

Meanwhile, there are two scenarios circulating in Brussels regarding Turkey’s stance towards Europe, also affecting Cyprus.

According to the first, Ankara may follow a tougher line if there are two ‘no’s to the Constitution plus the election of the Christian Democrats in Germany, as it would create a very difficult situation. It would consider it a “lose-lose” situation, sources said, and the government would not want the military to be proved right.
On the other hand, it may decide to go ahead with positive gestures to show it is still on track and it does all it can to meet EU demands. Cyprus, they said, is one area where Turkey has already made positive moves, so it would come as no surprise if it did more.

Ankara has already made its first move by deciding to sign the Protocol extending the so-called Ankara Agreement (customs union) to all 25 member in June instead of September, as it had initially announced.

The Protocol was agreed by a special member states working group yesterday and is expected to be approved by the ambassadors and then Ministerial Council, in June and without a discussion.




Seems like the E.U dream is coming to an end, whatever the Turks do, is the clash of civilisations inevitable

[gabaston]

bro

The Eu ............aman aman

France has just delivered a verdict of Eu dissatisfaction, Holland is about to do the same. The average Briton doesnt understand it. I dont understand it. Does anyone understand it?
Who is benefiting from the Eu? Is anyone?

All i know is that the next super power will be China, and expect big things from India too. This century i think will be the Asian advancement century.

If Eu wants Turkey, then fine, if not then thats fine too. Maybe Turkey will be better off with a special relationship, and enjoy the benefits of East and West cultures.

[Alexandros Lordos]

Seems like the E.U dream is coming to an end, whatever the Turks do, is the clash of civilisations inevitable

Brother, I wouldn't be so pessimistic myself. Saying "No" to the constitution is a setback, but it's not the end of the road. After a "No" people will begin to debate a lot more how Europe should be in the future, and the new proposal that will be eventually put on the table shall be the product of greater public participation.

As for Turkey in the EU, don't forget that the UK was vetoed twice before finally acceding to the EEC. If Turkey remains determined to reform itself, she will eventually get in, because the Christian Democrats cannot stay in power for ever or at least they cannot object for ever, if Turkey fulfills the Copenhagen criteria.

Furthermore, a "special relationship" is out of the question because Greece and Cyprus would veto it (believing that only with Turkey's full membership will the Cyprus Problem and other Greek-Turkish probelms be solved) and therefore the French and Germans will be left with the dilemma of either totally losing a market of 60 million people or accepting Turkey as a full member.

Just give it time, the climate will change.

[LANDJO]

The Christian Democrats are heading for federal elections and are scrambling for a more populist appeal, knowing that further economic reforms are bound to be unpopular. Barring Turkey, of which most Germans only know the Anatolian settlers living in ghettos in Berlin, is a populist move to gain votes, nothing else.

10 years down the line, people will have gotten used to a much more democratic and economically prosperous Turkey. Then they can change their minds, pointing to a row of economic and financial reforms.

The same, I think, goes for France.

[Kifeas]

The Christian Democrats are heading for federal elections and are scrambling for a more populist appeal, knowing that further economic reforms are bound to be unpopular. Barring Turkey, of which most Germans only know the Anatolian settlers living in ghettos in Berlin, is a populist move to gain votes, nothing else.

10 years down the line, people will have gotten used to a much more democratic and economically prosperous Turkey. Then they can change their minds, pointing to a row of economic and financial reforms.

The same, I think, goes for France.

I tend to share your opinion on that. Perhaps 10 years is a little bit overoptimistic in terms of time span, but definately in 15-20 years and provided that Turkey is seriously interested in joining the E.U. and thus carries out and implements the necessary reforms, the present negative image that it has in Europe, will change to a much more positive one.

[Nickp]

I think at best Turkey can only achieve a special relationship with the EU. This is mainly becuase of public opinion in Europe, particulary in France and Germany where it's so against it, it's almost racist. I don't belive this will change easily over a 10 year period as there as so many other problems Turkey is facing on battling.

In all reality, i think the only Turks that have a realistic hope of being part of the EU are the Turkish Cypriots should they wish to reunify under an solution acceptable to the 75% of GC's who said no.

[suetoniuspaulinus]

Gentlemen

Is it possible that EU has expanded too quickly?

Perhaps the New Constitution should have been ratified before the latest expansion.

I do not believe Turkey would have seen Full Membership inside ten years anyway and so in real terms a little extra delay is of little consequence.

Turkey on the other hand, in the mean time, will be developing trade with the East and so by the time Turkey does become a member of EU then I believe she will be a very powerful nation.

[Viewpoint]

The fact that Turkeys aspirations to become a full member will realistically take anything between 10 to 15 years at best and even then it will be thrawt with many obsticles which may result in a "special partnership" deal does nothing for the GC thesis of EU leverage and the EU solution, Turkey may turn around in 10 years time after making the necessary changes for EU membership becoming more developed and prosperious and say ok ill go it alone EU keep your membership, dont forget the Erdogan government may not be around then.

Where would that leave the GC administration?, up the swany me thinks, if GCs are genuine about any sort of solution, now is the best time for resolving outstanding issues and compromising, whereas if they continue their current policies of waiting for 3rd of October then the next dates to extract maximum demands this leverage over time will diminish.

[erolz]

Gentlemen

What about the ladies ?

[suetoniuspaulinus]

My Lords, Ladies and Gentlemen

I am of the opinion that the longer we wait for a "settlement" then the stronger will be the chances for KKTC to receive some sort of "indirect" recognition,