Viewpoint wrote:Kikapu we appear to be running around in circles and what you put forward is nothing more than a smoke screen trying to cloud the fact that the GCs if need be can use their numerical advantage to take control of the whole island whether we are a state of 29% or 10%, by the way im interested to hear what % you think we should accept, anything below 18% brings about the question why should we accept union with all its risks and not negotiate a full break of 2 seperate independent states?
We are going in circles, only because you want to, and not because you need to. Once almost all of the 200,000 GC's have been returned to their properties and their land then becomes of the GC state, whether in parcels or not, you may end up enticing the GC's to come and live in the TC state, because you will need more people than you will have, assuming most settlers getting reinstated back to Turkey and only leaving the 50,000 in Cyprus, and presumably, as citizens of Cyprus.
As to what percentage we should accept, all depends how badly you want those 5 seats in the Upper House to remain in the hands of the TC's. You tell me, VP, what would you give to keep those 5 seats? How much land that does not belong to you are you willing to give back to have as few GC's as possible in the TC state..? It may be 20%, 18% or 15%. Only you can decide, so that you can sleep at night knowing those 5 seats are safe.
Personally, I do not give too much importance to the 5 seats, because all the bills that goes to be signed by the President, are loaded with items that both the TC and GC state will put into the bill, so even if the upper house loses one or two seats to a GC in the TC state, which will not happen under the conditions I have put in place, TC will get most of what they want, as long as the President has not been given a "line item veto" which means that he cannot just simply take out what he does not like from the bill before signing it. Since I'm not worried about the upper house’s 5 seats, I would be happy for the present lines to become the state lines, because it would benefit the north state to have as many people and land as possible to become an economically successful, but then you will have to accept the potential 200,000 GC's moving back to their land in the TC state, who will then be almost at 50-50 with the TC's, which will mean that you will not have monopoly on political power in the north. But at much reduced land, say 18%, you will not have enough people to help your state to grow too much. My guess is, you will run into a budget deficit most of the time, which will mean cutting public services and layoffs, because there is no way you will be able to support the north state with the amount of income from taxes or from business, which means more TC's might move to the south to find work, or at least commute to the south to find work. This is the Good News Bad News situation for you. The more you put importance on the 5 seats, the less people you will have in the north state.
Viewpoint wrote:As I said before in general I agree with what you have put forward but the fact that our final safety net which is the 5 seats in the upper house and either a president or vice president can be reduced to dust is not something that would get the support of the TCs and I am one of them.
Then give back as much land back that does not belong to you, back to the GC's, so that they will not have a reason to come and live with you, therefore there is no threat of losing any of those 5 seats, and more importantly, any of the local state seats. The local seats are much more important that the seats in the Federal level to average person who uses them everyday of their lives, which concern about schools, police, hospital services, roads, public works and so on. This is where the resident’s taxpayer’s money goes and that's what they care about. You are yet to give me one good example as to what would happen, if the TC's were to lose one seat in the upper house, that the TC's would be affected. The President who has a great deal of executive powers can pass laws that does not require the Upper or the Lower House, and cannot be vetoed. You spend too much time worrying about these seats, but luck for you, you do control your own destiny, the question is, which will you choose, more land, or more GC's in the TC state.
The lower house is not really a lost cause, because as I stated already, that any bill can have several items on it that will benefit both communities, because each state put things they want that will ride "piggyback" on the main bill, hence the fact, it is called "PORK". When one item passes, all items pass when the bill is signed. Just don't give the President that all powerful "line item veto" where he can remove all the "PORK" that he does not like, or that he leaves some but takes out what may effect the north state. This is how "horse trading" works in the Federal Government. If I give you this to your state, what will you give me
for my state.
Viewpoint wrote:The lower house is a lost cause as you have given the GCs the advantage from the outset so our only real chance of stopping laws which we oppose is in the upper house and if we lose this then we are to put it crudely fucked.
It is a total loss as far as stopping something that you don't like in the lower house. But the members from both these houses are not enemies for god sake. They are there to do the peoples business who elected them to do. They are not there to screw the TC's or the TC state, because there will be GC's living in the north state also. I believe the only thing that concerns you the most, is whether the TC's will be able to stop the GC's from veto voting Turkey's EU entry. I don't even know if this is decided at the Upper and Lower houses or just within the executive branch level, which means you have no way of stopping it if that should be the case. Hopefully during these peace talks Turkey is an accommodator toward peace, so that it won't be an issue later.
Viewpoint wrote:No amount of local laws will be permitted if at the federal level restrictions have been passed, you cannot just dismiss this very important fact, you continue to paint a picture that the federal structure will have no impect or influence at the local level which is very misleading and incorrect.
A law passed at federal level banning trade with Turkey will effect hundreds of businesses in the north and not the south, can local laws override such an issue? just saying it wont happen doesnt not instill any confidence in any TCs.
There are laws that the 2 houses can pass and then there are certain laws at certain conditions (rare) that the executive branch will pass without any input from both the houses. Cyprus will need to follow trade rules that EU has with other countries, so where is the worry. Any laws passed by both the houses, will not violate any of the Federal Laws. If Turkey violates the reciprocal laws, then it is the EU more likely to deal with Turkey than Cyprus. This is the reason why Turkey needs to comply with EU's laws for Turkey to open her port to Cyprus by middle of December this year
Viewpoint wrote:Im interested to read the amount of land you see fit for the TCs and how you intend to guarantee our 5 seats and the president vice president balance.
I'm happy with what ever you need to give back for you to feel comfortable that you will not lose those 5 seats in the upper house. You know what it will take and how much. It’s like asking how long is a piece of string. Well, it is as long a string as you need to get the job done, and the same applies to you.
I forgot to answer this statement from your first paragraph above that if you were to go down to 18% of land, then why not agree on a partition and go our own separate ways. That is always an option I suppose, except the negotiating leaders have never brought it up. Talat talks about something as close to a agree partition, but he never states it, maybe because he knows, that if the north were to become independent from rest of Cyprus, they will not become independent from Turkey, and there is no guarantee that the north will ever, along with Turkey will become a EU members, so what have you gained by becoming independent state. What is it that you cannot do in a United Cyprus that you will be able to do as an Independent state.? My personal feeling on this issue is, you will be able to do more as part of Cyprus than without, because you will never be independent, and I don't care how much you love Turkey and the settlers, you will think differently when they start ruling you in the north with their greater numbers. You will have no way of stopping it. Besides, you may be willing to give up on 82% of your country of Cyprus, but don't be so sure that the GC's are willing to give up on their 18% of Cyprus.
I will have another post soon explaning on how to help the TC's keep those 5 seats in the upper house. The biggest help of course, is to return back as much GC land as possible.