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Sterling begins recovery against Euro

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Postby miltiades » Thu Jan 29, 2009 10:17 am

keithw wrote:Thanks Oracle and miltiades. Miltiades, i don't have Euros. Do you believe i will get a better exchange rate in Cyprus than UK? During my previous visits to Cyprus i have found this to be the case but, with the present economic climate i am not sure if this was still the case. Would i get the best rate with STG cheques or cash? However, not sure if i want to be walking around with that much cash but, can't have it all ways eh?

Rgds

Keith

Yes you will , the UK must be the worst place to change stg to euros, however if you could use Amex financial services for a transfer you would get a good rate normally about 1 and a half cent below the MMR , Mid market rate, pm me and I will tell you how to do this.
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Postby miltiades » Thu Jan 29, 2009 9:30 pm

Stg ended today at 1.105 against the Euro , just over 4.5 cents up from the close on Monday 26th Jan.
Adverse reports on the UK economy by the IMF and Fiscal Studies which are in contradiction to the British PM and Chancellor's position seem to have have a positive rather than a negative effect on Stg.
I predicted earlier that I expected Stg to rise to about 1.20 by the first week of February , rather optimist with hindsight , we shall see early next week when the German Manufacturing Output figures are out . They will be bad so Euro will come under pressure .
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Postby dinos » Fri Jan 30, 2009 7:42 am

bill cobbett wrote:
dinos wrote:I'd agree that EUR/GBP has some downside. But shorting the pair is rather risky business at this point...you have to live in the moment with currencies - history is of no consequence.

In any case, if you're paying 20% spreads, you're getting hosed. The clearing agency I use to trade currencies provides 3-5 pip spreads (0.0003-0.0005) depending on market machinations.


...are you able to provide a translation of the above in English please D. :D


Hey Bill, I just saw this. I'll try to translate a bit...

Pips are a unit of measurement for currency trading. In most currency pairs, one pip = 0.0001. The three - five pip spreads I I mentioned is how the bank makes it's commission on your trading.

Currency pairs trade at bid and ask prices. So, say, if EUR/USD is trading at 1.3234 / 1.3237, you'd buy at 1.3234 and pay 0.0003 to the bank. You need to get to 1.3237 to break even. The spread simply is the difference between 1.3234 and 1.3237.

In any case, any time you purchase one currency with another, you take a long position in the bought currency and a short position in the one you sold to buy it. Shorting a currency pair, such as EUR/USD just means that you've sold euros for dollars because you think euros will lose value (on some combination of technical and fundamental analysis).

Hope I didn't make it worse... :lol:
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Postby miltiades » Fri Jan 30, 2009 9:13 pm

Stg closed at 1.127 euros up from last Fridays close of 1.062 , 6.5 cents up on the week.
Good news for Stg is that it has taken all the pressures of this weeks IMF report and still managed to gain on a beleaguered Euro.
Monday will be a testing time , my guess , and its only a guess , is that Stg will rally and continue gaining on the Euro which is under pressure .
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Postby bill cobbett » Fri Jan 30, 2009 10:21 pm

dinos wrote:
bill cobbett wrote:
dinos wrote:I'd agree that EUR/GBP has some downside. But shorting the pair is rather risky business at this point...you have to live in the moment with currencies - history is of no consequence.

In any case, if you're paying 20% spreads, you're getting hosed. The clearing agency I use to trade currencies provides 3-5 pip spreads (0.0003-0.0005) depending on market machinations.


...are you able to provide a translation of the above in English please D. :D


Hey Bill, I just saw this. I'll try to translate a bit...

Pips are a unit of measurement for currency trading. In most currency pairs, one pip = 0.0001. The three - five pip spreads I I mentioned is how the bank makes it's commission on your trading.

Currency pairs trade at bid and ask prices. So, say, if EUR/USD is trading at 1.3234 / 1.3237, you'd buy at 1.3234 and pay 0.0003 to the bank. You need to get to 1.3237 to break even. The spread simply is the difference between 1.3234 and 1.3237.

In any case, any time you purchase one currency with another, you take a long position in the bought currency and a short position in the one you sold to buy it. Shorting a currency pair, such as EUR/USD just means that you've sold euros for dollars because you think euros will lose value (on some combination of technical and fundamental analysis).

Hope I didn't make it worse... :lol:


Thank you for that D. Regretfully I have to say that you'd be quite right to be fearful of making it worse. :)
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Postby paul1978 » Fri Jan 30, 2009 10:21 pm

euro will be no higher than €1.20 in the next 6 months
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Postby Z4 » Fri Jan 30, 2009 10:23 pm

paul1978 wrote:euro will be no higher than €1.20 in the next 6 months


Says Mr Moneycorp!
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Postby purdey » Fri Jan 30, 2009 10:26 pm

I have a pocketful of Euros and want the rate to go down. I have booked to sell Euro at 1.04 with Moneycorp.
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Postby miltiades » Sat Jan 31, 2009 12:10 am

Its up , up and up for Stg from now on !
Next Friday at this time it will be closer to 1.20 !!

WARNING : FORECASTS CAN BE RIGHT AS WELL AS WRONG !
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Re: Sterling begins recovery against Euro

Postby miltiades » Fri Feb 06, 2009 10:02 am

miltiades wrote:Having at one stage sunk to 1 euro to the pound , sterling is now poised for recovery closing today at 1.11 euros. I can see the rate rising by the end of this month to 1.17 euros to the pound . I also believe that by the end of this quarter , to the end of March , Stg will settle at 1.20 euros.

We buy Euros in the UK at 1.15 to the £ at the moment , if anyone is visiting London do contact me for the best rate available on your euros.

Stg is this morning at 1.15275 Euros , although the Bank of England cut interest rates yesterday by a further half of one percent down to just 1% , the pound however reacted favourably against both the Euro and the $ .
My "prediction " that Stg will recover and settle at around the 1.20 mark by the end of March looks achievable .
This morning our buying rate for Euros will be 1.25 .
WARNING:
PLEASE NOTE THAT PREDICTIONS CAN BE WRONG AS WELL AS RIGHT
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