Mr. T wrote:miltiades wrote:dinos wrote:miltiades wrote:My own prediction is that Stg will rise to 1.20 Euro by the first week of February if not before . I would hold on to Stg , not change to Euros until early February.
miltiades wrote:However I'm now buying Euros ( We purchase Euros in my business) at 1.22 to the pound.
Which is it? You're getting into Euros? Not getting into Euros? I'd be interested in seeing some analysis backing your "predictions."
Dinos , I buy Euros at my business , we also do Western Union.
The reason we have been buying Euros is that we purchase goods from Europe and we pay in Euros , plus of course I visit Cyprus regularly and need Euros. We are ALWAYS into Euros , people visit Euro nations come back to the UK change their euros at a bank and the banks rips them off .
We purchase at approx. 8% above the quoted rate , ie yesterday the pound traded at about 1.13 add 8% and our buying price becomes 1.22.
As far as an analysis to back my predictions , very easy . Study the historical rate of Stg against Euro and you will see that Stg has really taken a tumble since about the end of November 08 . On January 10th 2007 Stg stood at 1.494 by Jan 10th 2008 it was down to 1.327 , 6 months later and it was trading at 1.26 a rate that was pretty steady until towards the end of October 08. The reduction in interests rates obviously affected the pound but European interest rates are almost as low now as the UK.
Stg's lowest rate was on December 30th last when it closed at 1.02 , the lowest ever. Since then we have seen an increase of about 12% , rather a sharp increase in a relatively short period of Trading days. The indication here is that the Euro is facing a challenging time ahead with Germany's manufacturing trading figures and unemployment looking rather gloomy , they are due to be published at the end of January. Whist the adverse UK economic figures have had an impact on Stg reducing its value to its lowest ever rate , ie 1.02 , the Euro has up to now not suffered the same as the UK pound. Bearing in mind that Stg has lost about 24% of its value against the Euro since January 2007 and that it has risen by 12% over its lowest rate of Dec 30th with interest rates at their lowest ever at 1.5% , I can only see Stg rising up to the rate I predicted earlier.
Please remember that no one , not even George Soros can be correct all the time . Study the historical exchange rates and you may come to the same conclusion.
Regards
If you are buying euros (not physical paper) from a bank or currency provider at approx. 8% above the mid market rate ( MMR) you are being ripped off. Having an account with a firm such as Amex would normally mean paying substantially less than 1% above MMR.
If however you are buying euros from individuals and asking 8% more than MMR iit would be you doing the ripping off.
I have been involved in currency transactions for over 40 years during which time it has been apparent that neither rhyme nor reason have much to do with currency fluctuations and any predictions on rates can be little more than guestimates.
Having said that I agree that the Euro is rather belatedly getting bad press as all of a sudden many are waking up to the problems in Eurozone economies.....as though it has come as a surprise.
Isn't Western Union the favoured banking conduit used by fraudsters world wide?
Since you have been involved with currency transactions for a considerable number of years then you must now that the spread , difference between buying and selling currency can be as high as 20 % .
In my case I do not sell currency I only buy at rates that are more competitive than Banks , Exchange bureaus and without commission.
As for Amex with whom we have an account , their rates on either Euro or US $ are indeed slightly above MMR , although as you know they do charge a fee , albeit a small amount .
We buy Euros at 8% above the traded rate as quoted by XE Ucc, since we only buy and not sell the 8% above the MMR is very fair compared to to Banks .
I entirely agree that predictions on currency fluctuations are mostly guesstimates but isn't the entire financial spectrum based on guestimates , if it wasnt and was based on facts and realities we would not be faced at this moment with perhaps the worst financial crises the world has ever seen.
I have based my "guesstimate" on the fact that Stg is grossly undervalued in relation to the Euro. The economies of many European nations are intertwined with that of the UK , in Cyprus's case much more since it is far more economically attached to the UK. You can not have a a packet of 5x Pitta bread costing 1.35 euro where in the UK the cost is a mere 25 p for a packet of 5. A fresh chicken in Cyprus costs on average 10 Euros , in the UK £3.00 , the difference is huge. Houses in my village , Stroumbi in Paphos are selling more than houses in some parts of London , such as Streatham , Norbury , Croydon and many more areas.
The British pound is , and I say this again , grossly undervalued against the Euro.
Have noted your comments on Western Union. In my experience WU is a very professional organization that facilitates availability of CASH around the world in seconds.
