Cyprus-Forum.com

[observer]

Oracle wrote

I think you are deliberately missing the point.

It doesn't matter how much Turkey genuinely wants to join the EU or not .... it probably does not know itself ... but it knows enough that it has figured that it is important to continue a flow and an exchange, with a view to joining. This way it keeps itself tied enough to the EU, that the EU will not turn round and throw it out of Cyprus and upset the apple-cart for negotiations.

So as I say ... when it finally is severed from all EU ties ... then we will get somewhere! And that is just a moment away .....

You are right, I did miss your point, though not deliberately, only because the thought of the EU cutting all ties with Turkey is so wild it just never entered my head.

Turkey already has a trade agreement with the EU, it has important oil pipelines to the EU going through the country, it is an important NATO country on the southern flank of Europe, it contributes to UN peacekeeping forces and is currently a member of the UN security council, and it is an important major power in a volitile region.

I think you are being a bit myopic. Solving the Cyprus problem is not even close to the top of anyone's 2009 to-do-list, save for Cypriots and, to a lesser degree Greek and Turkey. Just watch any international news and see how often there is a mention of Cyprus.

It is the primary role of any country's government to look after the welfare of its own citizens. I can think of no third-party government that would gain any benefit from cutting off links with Turkey in order to persuade Turkey to take soldiers out of Cyprus. In reality, even if such isolation took place, it is unlikely to succeed in its aim, as it would only strengthen the hand of those within Turkey who wished Turkish soldiersto remain in Cyprus.

[Oracle]

Oracle wrote

I think you are deliberately missing the point.

It doesn't matter how much Turkey genuinely wants to join the EU or not .... it probably does not know itself ... but it knows enough that it has figured that it is important to continue a flow and an exchange, with a view to joining. This way it keeps itself tied enough to the EU, that the EU will not turn round and throw it out of Cyprus and upset the apple-cart for negotiations.

So as I say ... when it finally is severed from all EU ties ... then we will get somewhere! And that is just a moment away .....

You are right, I did miss your point, though not deliberately, only because the thought of the EU cutting all ties with Turkey is so wild it just never entered my head.

Turkey already has a trade agreement with the EU, it has important oil pipelines to the EU going through the country, it is an important NATO country on the southern flank of Europe, it contributes to UN peacekeeping forces and is currently a member of the UN security council, and it is an important major power in a volitile region.

I think you are being a bit myopic. Solving the Cyprus problem is not even close to the top of anyone's 2009 to-do-list, save for Cypriots and, to a lesser degree Greek and Turkey. Just watch any international news and see how often there is a mention of Cyprus.

It is the primary role of any country's government to look after the welfare of its own citizens. I can think of no third-party government that would gain any benefit from cutting off links with Turkey in order to persuade Turkey to take soldiers out of Cyprus. In reality, even if such isolation took place, it is unlikely to succeed in its aim, as it would only strengthen the hand of those within Turkey who wished Turkish soldiersto remain in Cyprus.

The ties to be severed are towards the EU accession; others which suit mutually, both Turkey and EU, I am sure will continue, much as they do with every other non-EU aspirational country. Although pipelines and such like, will probably feature less, as will the importance of NATO for Europe which already is losing favour with the major players in the EU (France and Germany ... and others to follow if led by these two).

As for Cyprus' importance in the media; that is an irrelevance. It would feature as much or as little as necessary as for any other sovereign country, anywhere in the world, in proportion to its size and influence.

But we are talking about what was a good year for the "TRNC" in 2008 and what will be a BAD year for the "TRNC" in 2009, based on that "progress" (lack of) in 2008, towards recognition (your main aspiration). In light of the "good" progress in 2008, which has achieved nothing for you, then 2009 promises to deliver even less, and with the added benefit (to freedom) of your complete reversal of fortunes, sooner rather than later.

[observer]

Perhaps you have realised how illogical your opening statement was, as you seem to keep shifting ground and have now become Mystic Meg.

The reality is that in the last 7/8 years since I returned to live in Cyprus I have seen the standard of living in TRNC go up and up, admittedly from a low base. It is still lower than RoC, and a world recession may cause it to slip, as it would in every other country, but it is my impression that the average Mehmet finds RoC and the embargoes more and more irrelevent to his daily and commercial life. So do those who trade with TRNC. International brands were still a bit of a rarity at the begining of the Millennium, now they are a common sight.

Having travelled quite extensively, it is my impression that not too many people could place Cyprus on a map, and even fewer are even aware that there is a Cyprus problem. I expect that Turkey's trade with most, if not all, countries (including those in the EU) greatly exceeds those with Cyprus, so expecting any country to put their own trade at risk, with no benefit to themselves, is plain unrealistic.

For most foreigners (including those in the EU), the Cyprus problem is one for Cypriots to sort out themselves. If Cypriots can not reach an agreement, no one else is going to step in and force one.

I don't expect much to change in 2009. TRNC will probably remain unrecognised, and Turkey will probably remain the major regional power it is now. Happy New Year - Mutlu Yillar.

[Viewpoint]

Perhaps you have realised how illogical your opening statement was, as you seem to keep shifting ground and have now become Mystic Meg.

The reality is that in the last 7/8 years since I returned to live in Cyprus I have seen the standard of living in TRNC go up and up, admittedly from a low base. It is still lower than RoC, and a world recession may cause it to slip, as it would in every other country, but it is my impression that the average Mehmet finds RoC and the embargoes more and more irrelevent to his daily and commercial life. So do those who trade with TRNC. International brands were still a bit of a rarity at the begining of the Millennium, now they are a common sight.

Having travelled quite extensively, it is my impression that not too many people could place Cyprus on a map, and even fewer are even aware that there is a Cyprus problem. I expect that Turkey's trade with most, if not all, countries (including those in the EU) greatly exceeds those with Cyprus, so expecting any country to put their own trade at risk, with no benefit to themselves, is plain unrealistic.

For most foreigners (including those in the EU), the Cyprus problem is one for Cypriots to sort out themselves. If Cypriots can not reach an agreement, no one else is going to step in and force one.

I don't expect much to change in 2009. TRNC will probably remain unrecognised, and Turkey will probably remain the major regional power it is now. Happy New Year - Mutlu Yillar.

Great post, thanks.

[RAFAELLA]

Perhaps you have realised how illogical your opening statement was, as you seem to keep shifting ground and have now become Mystic Meg.

The reality is that in the last 7/8 years since I returned to live in Cyprus I have seen the standard of living in TRNC go up and up, admittedly from a low base. It is still lower than RoC, and a world recession may cause it to slip, as it would in every other country, but it is my impression that the average Mehmet finds RoC and the embargoes more and more irrelevent to his daily and commercial life. So do those who trade with TRNC. International brands were still a bit of a rarity at the begining of the Millennium, now they are a common sight.

Having travelled quite extensively, it is my impression that not too many people could place Cyprus on a map, and even fewer are even aware that there is a Cyprus problem. I expect that Turkey's trade with most, if not all, countries (including those in the EU) greatly exceeds those with Cyprus, so expecting any country to put their own trade at risk, with no benefit to themselves, is plain unrealistic.

For most foreigners (including those in the EU), the Cyprus problem is one for Cypriots to sort out themselves. If Cypriots can not reach an agreement, no one else is going to step in and force one.

I don't expect much to change in 2009. TRNC will probably remain unrecognised, and Turkey will probably remain the major regional power it is now. Happy New Year - Mutlu Yillar.

Wait, 2011 is round the corner.
Russia can wait

[Nikitas]

This "major regional power" trip is bordering on the comic.

In what way is Turkey any kind of power, regional or otherwise? It is a nation struggling to catch up to Spain in industrial output, with twice its population. It is nowhere near Israel in military capability even though it has ten times the population. Its political system is a mix of feudalism and militarism that belongs more to the 1930s than the 21st century. So far the only projections of power by Turkey are the bombings of the Kurds and the invasion of Cyprus, both opponents lacking an air force and navy. And both alive and kicking after "succesful" operations by this "regional power".

Wait till Turkey can produce goods of acceptable quality and original design and then we can talk about it being on the way to becoming a regular nation, let alone a "power".

[observer]

This "major regional power" trip is bordering on the comic.

In what way is Turkey any kind of power, regional or otherwise? It is a nation struggling to catch up to Spain in industrial output, with twice its population. It is nowhere near Israel in military capability even though it has ten times the population. Its political system is a mix of feudalism and militarism that belongs more to the 1930s than the 21st century. So far the only projections of power by Turkey are the bombings of the Kurds and the invasion of Cyprus, both opponents lacking an air force and navy. And both alive and kicking after "succesful" operations by this "regional power".

Wait till Turkey can produce goods of acceptable quality and original design and then we can talk about it being on the way to becoming a regular nation, let alone a "power".

Like many GCs (it is my assumption that you are a GC), your view of Turkey is a mish-mash of wishful thinking and out of date ideas. Just to give one example, Istanbul, according to Forbes magazine, is the city with the 4th highest number of billionaires in the world http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Istanbul . This seems to indicate that quite a few people find Turkish goods acceptable.

Wikipedia, (not the fount of all knowledge but a useful source) also considers Turkey a regional power in the Middle East, along with Egypt, Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia. A quick google will show a number of academics that agree.

I don't think that country's internal political systems have anything to do with whether or not a country is a regional power. Turkey's political system is considerably more democratic that China, yet it's difficult not to see China as a major regional power.

[observer]

Perhaps you have realised how illogical your opening statement was, as you seem to keep shifting ground and have now become Mystic Meg.

The reality is that in the last 7/8 years since I returned to live in Cyprus I have seen the standard of living in TRNC go up and up, admittedly from a low base. It is still lower than RoC, and a world recession may cause it to slip, as it would in every other country, but it is my impression that the average Mehmet finds RoC and the embargoes more and more irrelevent to his daily and commercial life. So do those who trade with TRNC. International brands were still a bit of a rarity at the begining of the Millennium, now they are a common sight.

Having travelled quite extensively, it is my impression that not too many people could place Cyprus on a map, and even fewer are even aware that there is a Cyprus problem. I expect that Turkey's trade with most, if not all, countries (including those in the EU) greatly exceeds those with Cyprus, so expecting any country to put their own trade at risk, with no benefit to themselves, is plain unrealistic.

For most foreigners (including those in the EU), the Cyprus problem is one for Cypriots to sort out themselves. If Cypriots can not reach an agreement, no one else is going to step in and force one.

I don't expect much to change in 2009. TRNC will probably remain unrecognised, and Turkey will probably remain the major regional power it is now. Happy New Year - Mutlu Yillar.

Wait, 2011 is round the corner.
Russia can wait

Russia/Turkey trade: $20 billion/year (Turkey is Russia's biggest trading party after Germany).
No. of Russian tourists visiiting Turkey: 2 million/year.

There is a case for arguing that if both Russia and Turkey remain outside the EU, their trading relations will get even closer.

... not sure why 2011 is mentioned.

[Medman]

Every year since its formation has been a bad year for the TRNC apparently. However its still 25 years old. I wish I was. My knees hurt, things are too loud nowadays, everyone's moaning, things cost too much, there's green issues to now worry about, carbon footprints, political correctness, kebabs don't taste like they did 25 years ago and ignorance is bliss. Can I have my pills now!!!!

[waldorf]

Well done Medman - lovely bit of deviation