Get Real! wrote:This thread belongs in the joke section not CypProb Solutions...
Oazaki, if it’s a mental rearrangement you seek stick around and you'll get one courtesy of unkie GR, but please don't trash the CyProb thread areas with crap like this thank you.
OK Mr Get Real!, you want "realism" I presume? We shall, therefore, pass to a brief exploration of one or two potential proposals in terms of war strategy now that we have finished, for now it seems, talking about:
1. Diplomacy and commercial negotiations
2. Drug usage and prostitution
3. The preciser nature of genocide
4. A single threat (not bad going really, I consider myself lucky
)
5. A few legal considerations
Let us then consider what would be the antecedent claim to occupation: the British bases, or the Turkish occupied North? Very well then, from that recognition, what is the legal position of both entities? by this I mean:
NOT: What is each entity's own stated international and internal legal positions, which they largely contribute their own perspectives and counsel towards defining?
Rather I mean: What are the weaker areas in each entity's legal position and could those weaker areas be used, most likely in combination with as few other factors as possible, to remove them or take control of their position, as we would decide best suits our interest set?
In this context, the TRNC is in fact in an international legal position of extraordinary usefulness, in that it is not recognised by any international judicial or governmental body (except Turkey, yes). This is something which any leader of a united island would be well advised to leave alone, for the purpose of capitalizing on it later (by which point, territorial reformulations and population relocations can also be considered, whilst maintaing the status itself which allows for useful banking practices, for example).
You do, however, courtesy of the progress of history, have the British bases in a quite uniquely vulnerable position. This is because Cyprus is no longer a colony, and they are also in the position of having voluntarily arranged their own "grey area" as far as their legality of their being held is concerned, due to failure on guarantor obligations in 1974 and several other clauses also which are in more direct violation of the treaties by means of which those base areas were initially secured in international law. Many of these clause violations can be verified even today were a simple examination of the territorial integrity of Akrotiri to be carried out, most especially their underground storage facilities (even if they are cleaned really well...). However, you are not likely to get any sort of permit to go there, for the British military are
not Hussein's regime you know (the Iraqi one, not the soon-to-be American President who prefers his first name to his unfortunate middle one!)
Indeed, it would also be advatageous and in your national interests not to antagonize potential allies - provided they can be made to serve you in terms of their presence here. Furthermore, you want their troops to be stationed in areas of your own choosing, and you want an intelligence division here also. But - and here's the clincher - you want to be the ones controlling these things, as a matter of your own territorial integrity and "internal sovereignty". How to do this, then?
And so we return to the uniquely vulnerable position of the British bases to... negotiated and forewarned military action from the host nation. After all, can they actually go to war with you, or use their military on your military? Yet, also, how could you put yourselves in a position where you can use your military on theirs?
Simply, you need a temporary coup government, ostensibly moved into place as a result of a far-right wing faction, opposed to a left-wing government, and initially posturing against the TRNC. Prior to running such a scenario, of course, you would need to secure "good relations of mutual reciprocity of trustworthiness" with the Turkish military. From such a position you can pose, and posture, and make
very dramatic speeches yet... mutually engage in "no significant action".
Then... as things stew and develop, whilst having forewarned the British intelligence services who will take care of the military and governmental side of operations on thier end for you, you move army detachments into seige locations around both base areas. No attack is necessary, and probably not very desired. The simple case of having a coup government in place with military position taken up around the base areas, will ensure initially hostile media coverage. It at that point that you need to bring forth your well-prepared and professionally presented legal case. Keep it simple in terms of what you give the public news channels, make it complex and detailed in terms of the full case (extending into approximately 250 pages and citing precedent going all the way back to Grotius).
Then offer to step aside as a coup government once this issue has been resolved, for which you can ask the Permanent Court of Arbitration at the Hague for an advisory opinion in the matter. Make sure you field a succesful party and candidate in the elections which follow, of course.
This is roughly the same model we used to get Chavez into position in Venezuela, which itself was a modification of another post World War II model that was previously succesfully used elsewhere in Latin America. Of course, it remains at this stage simply a theoretical proposal. It is, however, roughly how the CIA works in terms of its "small statecraft", just simply readjusted towards a more internally beneficial direction.
That is to say: if there are valid tools of political, military and intelligence operation in usage gloabally already, what is preventing YOU from using such tools yourselves? Simply a lack of knowledge, planning, organization, intiative and the "courage" to see things through (which may be summed up as a belief in the success of such an operation being undertaken; the answer is you don't know how it will turn out till it's over, and even things often go a bit wrong. In practice. So, do you take the risk?)
At any rate, once the British Bases scenario has been effectively resolved, you would need to relocate such a "military stopover" base to some less attractive farmland of smaller land coverage. This would count as a succesful solution on your parts, brought about through military action.
Then you would wish to relocate various factors such as population distribution and boundary markers as regards the TRNC. It is on this side of procedings which I am not actually advising directly on in terms of my contributions to this forum, as it is "the main course" so to speak and, of course, I am completely aware that all the politicians, most of the military and a large proportion of the people on the street each personally think they can solve scenarios the best and are not even willing to
listen to advice, let alone pay good money to contract a third party for negotiations. So... do it yourselves. You know so much, right? Do it yourselves then.
all the best,
Oazaki.
PS: And Merry Christmas to you all! You may consider this post my gift to the members of this forum, courtesy of Mr Get Real!