Cyprus-Forum.com

[turkkan]

Does anyone really want reunification?

ANYONE not familiar with the long history of grandstanding and political bluster associated with the Cyprus problem would have thought that the events of the last week have put paid to any hope that the two leaders would ever reach an agreement.

First there was the incident of the Turkish warship preventing two ships carrying out hydrocarbon explorations in Cyprus’ exclusive economic zone, by threatening to use force. This was followed on Tuesday by Mehmet Ali Talat’s angry tirade during the talks against President Christofias’ visit to Moscow and the signing of several agreements with the Russian government. An agitated Christofias subsequently declared Talat had no right to challenge the sovereignty of the Republic, while on Wednesday, in his speech at an official dinner in Athens he launched a vicious attack on the Turkish Cypriot leader.

For people familiar with the Cyprus problem, these events were nothing unusual, just another theatrical performance by the main players who are accustomed to entertaining their respective audiences with aggressive rhetoric. This, it could be said, was as much part of the talks as the photographs of the smiling leaders shaking hands. As for Turkey, the bullying tactics in the seas were nothing new – she has been constantly bickering with Greece about exploration rights, but this had not affected the fast improving relations between the two countries. It was how things were done in this part of the world, the more cynical would argue.

But this attitude, cultivated over the decades, might be distorting our view of reality, preventing us from seeing things as they are. And despite the optimism about the procedure voiced by the UN Secretary-General’s special envoy, Alexander Downer, in an interview last weekend, the signs are not good. After two-and-a-half months of talks, little has been agreed at the negotiating table, even though it is said the outstanding differences would be sorted when the procedure enters the give-and-take stage. But by the time we arrive at the give-and-take stage, the political climate, which has been steadily deteriorating after the initial honeymoon period, could be so bad that nobody would want a settlement.

Talat and Christofias must shoulder most of the responsibility for the current situation, as they have been publicly bickering and exchanging accusations ever since the start of the direct talks. They might smile for the photographers before they enter the negotiating room, but once they leave they commence the verbal assaults on each other, giving ammunition to the hardliners on both sides to poison the atmosphere and rekindle the old feelings of mistrust and hostility. Does either of them sincerely believe that this is the best way to prepare people for re-unification and power-sharing?

In mitigation, it is often said that both leaders have to take tough stances in public in order to keep the hardliners of their respective communities on side. This is not a credible argument, as it would be rank stupidity to turn the majority of the population against a compromise deal in order to keep the hardliners happy. A more plausible explanation would be that the tough rhetoric is directed to the majorities on both sides, neither of which is particularly keen on reunification and power-sharing.

And judging by the way they have been behaving, neither are Talat and Christofias, both of whom obdurately refuse to engage in the discourse of reconciliation and co-operation. When the two comrades, who supposedly have chemistry and are committed to a settlement, are constantly bickering and incapable of showing good faith, what chance is there of a federation working? A federation, no matter how well regulated it is, requires an abundance of good faith, a constructive attitude and a big appetite for compromise to work. The two leaders have never displayed these qualities, so why are we expecting them to do so in the event of a settlement? But even in the highly unlikely event that they did, would they have the support of the people?

We should stop deluding ourselves. Such is the mistrust, resentment and bad faith on both sides that the possibility of reunification and power-sharing working is minimal. Perhaps now is the time to consider the possibility of formalising our long separation. It would have much more public support than any attempt at reunification. As Rauf Denktash always said, you cannot force two unwilling partners to marry against their will.

Copyright © Cyprus Mail 2008

[Get Real!]

Given that an undemocratic political unification arrangement has already been tried and failed with the 1959 London/Zurich agreements, there’s not a doubt in my mind that the probability that another arrangement will be accepted let alone work is next to zero.

Therefore, if democracy is to be foolishly rejected then partition would’ve been an option had the TC community owned a clearly defined and continuous territory but unfortunately it is not the case…

1. In 1974, Turkey ceased way beyond what the TC community owned. In fact, THREE times more than they should have which constitutes theft.

2. The TC community has never proposed to form an independent state on a size of territory that reflects what they actually owned to facilitate an exact north/south exchange and withdrawal from the remainder.

3. The TC community has never even proposed to financially compensate the excess land they currently illegally occupy in return for independence. (This may not necessarily be accepted by the GC community but it would’ve been a well-meaning gesture)

On the basis of the above, the TC community has never been serious about partition to even make it an option.

[vaughanwilliams]

GC's don't like TC's
TC's don't give a toss about GC's
They don't really want to be friends, they may settle for being neighbours.
As far as settlement is concerned, the TC's want freedom to travel etc., and full EU membership/benefits.
The GC's wont agree to that without getting their land/property back
Not going to happen.
Stalemate.
Status Quo.

[Jerry]

GC's don't like TC's
TC's don't give a toss about GC's
They don't really want to be friends, they may settle for being neighbours.
As far as settlement is concerned, the TC's want freedom to travel etc., and full EU membership/benefits.
The GC's wont agree to that without getting their land/property back
Not going to happen.
Stalemate.
Status Quo.

Status Quo until Turkey gets fed up with propping up "trnc" and there are few if any TCs left in the north, then Turkey (not Talat) will do a deal with ROC and keep a smaller slice of the island in exchange for recognised annexation and EU membership. TCs will lose their place in Cyprus (some may move south) and ROC will be 82%+ of the island. Many GCs will get their property back in the enlarged ROC or TC exchange land.

The "trnc" is all but finished. It's not a question of if but when will Turkey throw in the towel.

North braces itself for the worst
By Simon Bahceli

AS THE global economic crisis continues to wreak havoc in money markets around the world, some are asking how deeply the already cash-starved economy of the Turkish Cypriot-run breakaway state will fare.
While some optimistic northern politicians have claimed that international isolation will buffer it from some of the worst effects of the economic downturn, others say it will bear the brunt even harder than countries which have governments with the power and resources to bail out failing financial institutions.
“The Turkish Cypriot economy is already suffering a serious recession,” said Turkish Cypriot businessman Fikri Toros, whose Toros Group of Companies deals in motor vehicles, furniture, electronic appliances, insurance and tourism in northern Nicosia. Few know the Turkish Cypriot economy as well as Toros, and despite the straightened economic conditions of the north, this British-educated businessman has seen his family business grow since its establishment in 1957. Rarely, though, have things been as bad as they are now.
“We have suspended all new investments, and are acting very conservatively and defensively in order to minimise the effects of the recession,” Toros said. He adds that he has been “contracting staff size” for almost a year and a half because he “foresaw this recession”.
Another man who knows just about all there is to know about the Turkish Cypriot economy is Gokel Saydam, former head of the tax office and now a freelance chartered accountant who looks after the accounts of around 250 of the north’s registered companies.
“People are spending only on what is essential, things like food, fuel and power,” Saydam said. The economic slowdown is present in every sector of the market, beginning with the importers, he said.
“If a businessman imported 100 fridges last month, this month he may import only 20.”
Asked how the companies on his books are dealing with the recession, Saydam said. “Some of them can’t even afford to pay my accountant’s fee. There are going to be redundancies. It’s started already, although I believe the real crisis will hit after the New Year.”
Largely because of the north’s peculiar political status, it is no stranger to economic crises. Its dependence on Turkey’s financial aid and its use of the Turkish lira has meant that it often falls victim to economic downturns in Turkey. The banking and currency crises that rocked Turkey and north Cyprus in 2000 had a deeply felt impact on the lives of ordinary people as they saw the value of their earnings halved overnight. Hundreds of Turkish Cypriots also saw their savings disappear as numerous banks declared themselves bankrupt.
In fact it has only been in the past few years that the Turkish government has managed to bring the lira’s previously runaway inflation under control – and this is something which has encouraged ordinary Turkish Cypriots to borrow and spend more.
But this relative wellbeing is under threat again as people struggle to keep up with repayments on their debts.
The problem stems from the fact that all Turkish Cypriots working in the public sector, and most of those working in the private sectors, are paid in Turkish liras. However, the debts they have accrued for houses, cars and other consumer durables are invariably in British pounds, euros and US dollars. And, unlike in Europe, interest rates for hard currencies such as the euro are rising. The reason for the higher rates in the north, and in Turkey for that matter, is that Turkish and Turkish Cypriot banks are lent foreign currency by European banks at higher lending rates than counties within Europe.
“The economic recession in Western countries means that financial institutions have received immediate intervention by the governments. This reduced the rates there but here it has led to an increase, and this lowers the spending power of consumers in the streets,” Toros explained.
“Whereas the interest rate for the euro a couple of months ago was eight or nine per cent, it is now around ten or 11 per cent,” he adds.
As if that were not enough, problems are being further compounded by the domestically rooted problem of the public spending budget deficit. The deficit, as Toros explained, means that with all available funds being spent on public sector workers, there is nothing left over for infrastructural projects.
“This has reduced the money in circulation as there are no tenders being offered, no projects, no injections of cash.”
What may make this recession in the north bigger and longer-lasting than any in the past is Turkey’s increasing unwillingness to bail the breakaway state out. Earlier this month the Turkish Cypriot ‘prime minister’ Ferdi Sabit Soyer and several of his other ‘ministers’ travelled to Ankara to plead for a 400 million dollar bailout loan. Turkey refused, offering them only 100 million.
“Turkey’s disposable resources are restricted and she is cutting down on loans to north Cyprus as well,” said Toros.
Saydam agreed that Turkey cannot be expected to foot the bill indefinitely - and this could be why the current recession will most likely outsize any in the past.
“The 2000 was similar in some ways, but then Turkey helped out. Therefore the crisis was limited in size. This time I don’t think Turkey will be able to give full financial support. She will be having much bigger problems than us.”
One way in which the north used to make money independently from Turkey was through its once-thriving property industry. But that too has been all but killed off by the global crisis. With its almost exclusive reliance on British clientele, the credit crunch being experienced in the UK means that fewer than ever Brits are buying properties in a market already in depression since the boom days of 2004-5.
Ian Smith, Kyenia’s longest standing foreign estate agent, told the Sunday Mail that property prices had fallen by around 20 per cent since the start of the crisis, and that he expected little or no improvement until the end of 2009.
“In the boom days there was plenty of spare cash and low interest rates, but now people are not willing to invest in a second home.”
How the north fares the coming economic storm depends a great deal on Turkey. If it takes pity and hands over a large amount of cash to the north’s embattled ‘government’, things may be kept ticking over. As Toros said, “The only way for us is to get money from Turkey. Turkey can go to the IMF, but we can’t.”

But if Turkey insists on not paying, things could get interesting politically. After all, it was the bank collapse of 2000 that led to the toppling of former hardline leader Denktash and heralded the election of an administration that espouses reunification of the island as its goal.



Copyright © Cyprus Mail 2008

[Springsteen]

As things stand TC don't have leg to stand on,so see no reason to give them one.I would have thought they would bend over backwards to have a solution and be part of one Cyprus,but I forgot their masters won't let them.......now how high did you want me to jump?

[Nikitas]

Turkey has already gone to the IMF, disproving all that hot air about being insulated from the crisis. Foreign investment is shrinking and its ability to carry the TRNC burden is diminishing.

[skipper]

Turkey has already gone to the IMF, disproving all that hot air about being insulated from the crisis. Foreign investment is shrinking and its ability to carry the TRNC burden is diminishing.

Hungary & Latvia, two EU members and Iceland who only a few months ago where amongst the richest countries in the world have concluded IMF deals. These countries went running to the IMF because they really were in a desperate position.

Compared to these three countries Turkey is in a very good position, it would use the IMF money to cover any shortfall in the roll over its short term debt and to ensure growth next year.

Foreign investment is shrinking? Show me a country at this moment in this period where it is increasing? How could Turkey insulate itself from the world economic downturn when every other country (developed & developing) is affected by it? To think that this is some major crises is major wishful thinking, if Turkey can survive the 2001 crises of its own making where dept reached nearly 100% of GDP it will survive this one.

Turkey can carry the burden of the TRNC quite easily, they just dont want that burden to carry on getting bigger and bigger. I'ill give you an interesting statistic, since 2004 with the CTP coming into power the amount of money Turkey gives yearly has doubled. This money has been systematically wasted by giving people jobs that are completely unproductive and other financial mis-management.

The problems could easily be fixed by getting rid of the 13th salary, some of the thousands of people employeed who do nothing, reducing the inflated pensions and then start some serious restructuring. That would be a start, it would also mean political suicide so its easier just to ask Turkey for money but eventually it will have to be done and when it will there will be early elections.

[Viewpoint]

Turkey has already gone to the IMF, disproving all that hot air about being insulated from the crisis. Foreign investment is shrinking and its ability to carry the TRNC burden is diminishing.

45 years or predicting doom and gloom, surely you must realize how stupid you sound the world is in crisis not just Turkey. What do you think will happen when all those drunken louts do not visit the sess pit Ayia Napa?

[kurupetos]

Turkey has already gone to the IMF, disproving all that hot air about being insulated from the crisis. Foreign investment is shrinking and its ability to carry the TRNC burden is diminishing.

45 years or predicting doom and gloom, surely you must realize how stupid you sound the world is in crisis not just Turkey. What do you think will happen when all those drunken louts do not visit the sess pit Ayia Napa?

Peace and quiet at last!

[Viewpoint]

Turkey has already gone to the IMF, disproving all that hot air about being insulated from the crisis. Foreign investment is shrinking and its ability to carry the TRNC burden is diminishing.

45 years or predicting doom and gloom, surely you must realize how stupid you sound the world is in crisis not just Turkey. What do you think will happen when all those drunken louts do not visit the sess pit Ayia Napa?

Peace and quiet at last!

Thats true but think of the impact on your economy...