Cyprus-Forum.com

[Nikitas]

Eroglu, now that is a blast from the past!

TCs will vote for him hoping for what? He stands for partition, more settlers, absorption of TCs by Turkey.

[Viewpoint]

If you think the negotiating team right now is a dead end you do not want to see this party elected in they wont even come to the table, just like the crying Papastropolous.

and when they don't will you call them the crying donerkababoglu?

I have no problem calling them that from now as they have been given orders by Turkey to make 50% of the candidates in the next election Turks that settled in the TRNC after 1974, do you now get my drift? Can you not see the tide turning against you with regards to whom you will have to negotiate with? they wont give a shit about GCs not unlike TCs who never want any harm to come to GCs and would genuine like a solution that would resolve everything.

I'm sorry VP, but the biggest losers here will be the TC's, specially those who live in the north, such as yourself. The fact that Talat on the instruction from Turkey is trying to seek a solution based on 2 sovereign states, as prescribed in Annan Plan which the GC's will not go for, and why should they if it means losing their rights to their land in the north, when they are willing to let all Cypriots, GC's and TC's be the owners of all of Cyprus in a True Federation. You will still have a state where majority will be TC's with power sharing, but this will not suit Turkey, so what difference will it make, which political party's strings are pulls from Ankara. No difference at all, or do you disagree with this view.?

But here's where the TC's become the biggest losers, because they will be reduced and replaced by settlers first in political parties, then in government seats, then in government jobs. You are already in the minority to the settlers in population, and no matter how much you want to claim of being a "Anatolian", the settlers will only see you as a "bastardised TC" islander and will brush you aside if you dare to stand in their way when they start to pass laws that will not be to your likings. You will soon abandon the island you love and let the settlers take over. You may ask, "well, what good will it do for the GC's if all of the above does happen". Good question VP. !!

First of all, the situation for them will not be much more different than what it is today, so where is the loss there. But this is where they will gain an advantage, and that is, from then on, any EU talks for Turkey, Turkey will have to deal with Cyprus without the concerns of any TC's, because the TC's will be so marginalised, they might as well be a fly on a elephant's butt, therefore, without any resistance from the TC's, Turkey will be able to cut any deal with the RoC that will suit her interest 100% on her way to becoming a EU member. Even if this does not happen as I see it, the future of the TC's are doomed one way or the other, so before you start giving the GC's warnings in their future dealing with the Turks, you best take note of those warnings to yourself and to the TC community.

Kikapu you still have not grasped some bery basic principles TCs are a lost cause they have accepted willing their fate to return to their roots they are more Turkish than they have ever been, what you and other GCs need to understand is that future "negotiations" will be with mainland Turks, will GCs really want to unite with them?? I get the feeling the GCs will be begging for partition.

[Kikapu]

I'm sorry VP, but the biggest losers here will be the TC's, specially those who live in the north, such as yourself. The fact that Talat on the instruction from Turkey is trying to seek a solution based on 2 sovereign states, as prescribed in Annan Plan which the GC's will not go for, and why should they if it means losing their rights to their land in the north, when they are willing to let all Cypriots, GC's and TC's be the owners of all of Cyprus in a True Federation. You will still have a state where majority will be TC's with power sharing, but this will not suit Turkey, so what difference will it make, which political party's strings are pulls from Ankara. No difference at all, or do you disagree with this view.?

But here's where the TC's become the biggest losers, because they will be reduced and replaced by settlers first in political parties, then in government seats, then in government jobs. You are already in the minority to the settlers in population, and no matter how much you want to claim of being a "Anatolian", the settlers will only see you as a "bastardised TC" islander and will brush you aside if you dare to stand in their way when they start to pass laws that will not be to your likings. You will soon abandon the island you love and let the settlers take over. You may ask, "well, what good will it do for the GC's if all of the above does happen". Good question VP. !!

First of all, the situation for them will not be much more different than what it is today, so where is the loss there. But this is where they will gain an advantage, and that is, from then on, any EU talks for Turkey, Turkey will have to deal with Cyprus without the concerns of any TC's, because the TC's will be so marginalised, they might as well be a fly on a elephant's butt, therefore, without any resistance from the TC's, Turkey will be able to cut any deal with the RoC that will suit her interest 100% on her way to becoming a EU member. Even if this does not happen as I see it, the future of the TC's are doomed one way or the other, so before you start giving the GC's warnings in their future dealing with the Turks, you best take note of those warnings to yourself and to the TC community.

Kikapu, I need your input to clarify a few issues here:

Cem,

Sorry for being a day late in getting back to you, as promised.

1) For obvious reasons, the TCs have never stood up against Turkey neither now nor in the past, so what is the point of raising the resistance issue ?

The TC's never had a reason to stand up against Turkey before. First of all, with the help of Turkey, the TC's have gotten their "state" built on mostly GC owned land and in order to maintain that "state", they depend on Turkey to use it's military might as well as cash to keep it going, because the TC's were in the assumption, wrongly I may add, that Turkey was occupying the north for the benefit of the TC's, so therefore, up to 2004 before Cyprus became a EU member, everything had been going "well" for the TC's, because there was never a need to seek a settlement with the GC's, by the TC's or Turkey. It was thought that in time the north will gain recognition and from there on, Cyprus will have 2 independent sovereign states and that Turkey can do pretty much as she pleases with the north then on.

Well, lets just say that the future predictions of the TC "state" has not materialised and to make matters worse, Cyprus is now a full EU member, and despite her size, and as I have stated before, this is just one of those situations, where size does not matter, but what it is that you can do with it.! What Cyprus can do with her EU membership is to block Turkey's EU admission regardless of what Turkey's chances are of becoming a EU member to begin with. Turkey thinks she can make it and that is the only important thing to focus on and not what her chances are. As long as Turkey thinks that she can become a EU member, she will need to take what ever little power the TC's may have in the north and have all the power in her hands for decision makings, if and when the time comes to negotiate with the RoC to make deal to return the north back to the RoC in exchange for her EU vote, because no matter how many other roads Turkey will need to go through to get to her EU dreams, the final road will be the one that goes through the RoC no matter when in the future this will come about. The last thing Turkey will need at that time, is for the TC's to stand up against her for "being thrown under the bus" in order to serve her interest over the TC's, so that is why, the settlers becoming more active in decision making over time in the government in the north, will help Turkey cut a deal with the RoC. What Turkey wants to do now, is to get her "ducks in a row" so that she is ready if and when the time comes to realise her EU dreams.

2) As emphasized above in bold fonts, do you sincerely believe yourself that Turkey is really on her way to become a EU member
Particularly, under the global financial crisis and the ensuing recession when EU itself is too preoccupied to save its own ass, let alone taking on economically fragile and politically unstable country such as Turkey?
Even when EU fared better, it was understandably reluctant to admit Turkey.?

Again, it really does not matter what anyone else thinks as to what Turkey's chances are to ever becoming a full EU member, because what matters the most is, what Turkey herself thinks about becoming a full EU member. Up to this point, she believes she can make it, hence the fact she has not withdrawn her application or agreed to become a "associated EU member" and knowing full well what the full EU membership of the RoC means for Turkey's chances, Turkey has/is gone to great lengths to marginalise the RoC veto vote power, hence the Annan Plan 2004 as well as the Confederation settlement she wants for Cyprus now with 2 sovereign states and a weak central government with a TC veto power in the "new" RoC government as well as wanting intervention rights. Turkey will not get her wishes, because the GC's are not about to relinquish the biggest "weapon" they have over Turkey, and that is her EU veto vote power.

3) How do you reconcile the north being swarmed by an increasing numbers of settlers and being on the table for negotiations with RoC in a potential deal? I mean, the cost of shipping back the established settlers under AP was already huge and now that their numbers have been increasing ever more, who will bear this cost ? EU busy with own bail outs? Or Turkey with > 4 million unemployed ?

If and when the times comes to ship the settlers back to Turkey once a deal is cut with the RoC to allow Turkey into the EU club, Turkey will take care of it's own people. These are Turks after all and not people without a state. They are also patriotic Turks, so all Turkey has to do, is to tell these patriotic Turks, that becoming part of Europe was Atatürk's vision for their motherland, Turkey, and with some financial assistance from the EU, the RoC and Turkey, these people will be relocated back to their beloved motherland. I think all the NeoPartitionist will go with them, since they have "abdicated" their Turkish Cypriotness to become "Turks".

4) This leaves the other option: partition on 18%-82% split, but is it a good option ? Still many GCs will be put off, as not all of them will access their properties.

I do not think it is a good option and neither will the GC's consider it, as long as Turkey thinks she can become a EU member. There is no need for the GC's to give up on getting the north back into the RoC at this point in time and the longer the financial meltdown continues around the globe, the north will increasingly become more desperate for cash, which will mean asking Turkey for more money to bail them out at a time when Turkey is facing major financial challenges herself as well as the unemployed numbers that you have talked about. Turkey will need to have a very good reason to keep the north afloat which has become a "white elephant" for her, and the only reward she can ever hope to get back for her investments in the north for the past 34 years, is to trade the north for a EU membership.

If it becomes very apparent that Turkey will never become a full EU member anytime in the future, then the RoC will lose it's EU veto vote power "weapon" over Turkey, then at that point, if the north is still not a recognised state, Turkey may want to cut a deal to retain part of the island for herself, much like the USA in Cuba with Guantanamo Bay than continue to pay to maintain the occupation of the north. Once again, if the TC's by then are marginalized politically, they will not be able to resist what ever Turkey will decide with their future. They are after all Cypriots who will remain on the island, but politically at much weaker position than before to make too many demands from the GC's. We may at that point see a True Federation emerge since the GC's will not want to go back to the 1960 Constitution that gave the TC's too much power for their 18% population of the island. If by some miracle the north does get a recognition, then the north, along with Turkey, will be kept out of the EU by the RoC, until perhaps major land is given back to the RoC from the north. But my guess is, the EU will not want the "trnc" as an independent county to become a EU member, if the EU is dead against Turkey ever becoming a full EU member, because of the concerns, that Turkey will be able to manipulate the "trnc" to in effect disrupt the EU enough to allow Turkey in. Remember, that size does not matter, but only what you can do with it.!

5) How do you reconcile Turkey' recent moves against RoC's oil exploration attempts with the potential deal you mention. Wouldn't she be better of avoiding this kind of confrontation with a EU member?
A country "on her way to EU".

Until Turkey is in the EU, she will flex her military muscles anyway she sees fit, until a bigger muscles will come along to tell her to stop or if there is a substantial oil finds, Turkey may well be asked to become a "partner" in the sharing of the revenues if she is willing to throw the "trnc under the bus". Money makes strange bedfellows sometimes, hence the phrase
"Money Talks, Bullshit Walks".

I hope I was able to answer your questions, Cem.!

[Viewpoint]

Time is the answer to everthing another all we have to is hold on for another 1000 years.