Tim Drayton wrote:The image of David defeating Goliath is an enduring one. How nice to dream that one day Cyprus will exercise its veto and Europe will shut its doors on Turkey, reducing that nation to starvation and thus bringing about its extinction. With Turkey removed from the scene, the Cyprus problem will resolve itself.
Dream on. The reality is that Turkey is a fast developing country. At the time of the invasion in 1974 it had a per-capita GDP of 928 dollars; the equivalent figure for 2006 was 7,500. That is an eight-fold increase in just over thirty years. This is a country which is developing fast. Sure, Turkey is seriously in debt and will be hit hard by the current global crisis. However, I well remember the financial crisis that hit Turkey in January/February 1994. In a period of about three weeks the stock exchange index fell from 20,000 to 4,000 and the currency was devalued by over 300%. Overnight interest rates shot up to several thousand percent on an annual basis, and this was the longest period that anybody was prepared to lend in the local currency. This appeared to be a crisis of a magnitude that would ruin the country. Yet a few months down the line everything was back on track and growth had resumed. I concluded then that Turkey was an unsinkable ship and, if anything, the country is resting on much more secure economic foundations than it was then. When the world economy picks up again, Turkey will be back bigger and stronger than ever. I am sure that most people are familiar with the predictions made in a recent report by Goldman Sachs that, by 2050, Turkey will have a per capita GDP of 60,000 dollars and will have the third-largest economy in Europe after Russia and Britain. I find some of the methodology in this report suspect – it is based on extrapolating current trends and on the assumption that having a youthful population is one of the key motors of economic development. Even so, anybody who really cares about the future of Cyprus had better at least factor in the possibility that one day the island’s largest neighbour will have an economy larger than that of Italy or France.
Coming to the power of veto, what actually is tiny Cyprus going to veto? Can Cyprus veto the 1963 Association Agreement envisaging close cooperation between Turkey and the then EEC leading up to an eventual customs union and the prospect of full membership, provided that the necessary conditions are met? The agreement introducing such a customs union in 1995? I don’t think so. Close cooperation between the EU and Turkey is a fact, underpinned by agreements that were signed long before Cyprus acceded. Europe cannot and will not shut her door on such a geopolitically important neighbour. The best that Europe can do, if she has no stomach for admitting Turkey, is to play for time and keep the latter waiting. All that tiny Cyprus can do is put a little stick in the spokes and slow the process down slightly. Turkey will then either keep trying to get in, or give up and turn its attentions elsewhere. I do not think that EU membership is the huge deal for Turkey that some would like to make out. While the majority of Turks still support EU membership, public opinion surveys show that this support is declining. Turkey will do fine on the fringes of the EU benefiting from the degree of integration afforded by the customs union.
It is time that people stopped putting their heads in the sand and engaging in wishful thinking. The probability is that over the next few decades Cyprus’s closest geographic neighbour will grow in strength and exercise greater clout in the region. This poses both opportunities and threats for Cyprus. A continuation of the status quo will enable Turkey to consolidate and exploit the foothold that it has on the island. On the other hand, a united Cyprus that is able to develop good relations with Turkey could benefit greatly from the industrial expansion that is taking place there. There is no reason, for example, why a portion of Turkish imports and exports could not pass through Limassol container port or be carried on Cyprus-flagged ships.
Rubbish Tim, rubbish!!!
We can and will perfectly veto Turkey's accession, for the simple fact that (a.) it refuses to recognize another EU member state, and (b.) for the continuation of the illegal occupation of another EU member state.
As it is well known, every new member state, in order to accede the EU, must receive the approval of each and every EU member state government, and each and every EU member state parliament. Unless these happen, no new country may accede the EU. What will you do? Will you take the hand of the RoC members of parliament, squeeze it and force it vote or sign Turkey's EU accession? Will you send the British navy and air force to blockade Cyprus? Will you ask Britain to threaten us with a nuclear bombing? Nothing of all these will possibly work, as long as the above situation continues!
What else will Britain do? Will it recognize, or threaten to recognize the "TRNC?" It is illegal and not possible to do so, under the EU aqcui, because it will violate the EU treaty of accession, as well as the UN resolutions! What else? Will Britain try to get the rest of the EU member states to change the treaty of accession? It is not possible because it requires every EU member state's signature, including ours! Will Britain try to pass a new UN SC resolution, eradicating the existing one, in order to facilitate "TRNC" recognition? Not possible either! If the Russians will not veto it, the French will do, and if the French won't, the Chinese will do!
There is nothing that can be done, Tim, and rest sure
we will veto Turkey's EU accession, if it doesn't change up its bloody primitive mind!
